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Forums - Sales Discussion - Year end NPD predictions

quickrick on 24 November 2018
Mbolibombo said:
November PS4 is going to kill it, I dont think 2M will be reached but very very close to. Switch will also be up by a considerable amount. As for December I think PS4 will suffer a wee bit after having such a terrific deal in November but still good month due to December and all.. Switch is looking for the best December this gen by a huge margin. Smash pre-orders are crazy and it is going to drive hardware like nothing else this year. Also the good WoM for Pokemon certainly helps.

Nov:
PS4 - 1.9
NSW - 1.3
Xbox - 1.1

Dec
PS4 - 1.1
NSW - 2.2
Xbox - 1.3

PS4 and Switch with pretty much identical YTD when all is said and done.

Switch has to hit 5.3 for you to win the bet.



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Miyamotoo on 24 November 2018
quickrick said:
Mar1217 said:

Except people have been sharing completly different anecdotes from one another. Also, anecdotal evidence is short of bogus in these cases, they never mean much in the grand scheme of thing. Especially when we've got analyst already giving hints about sales and such.

It's really best to just wait for NPD, that analyst thought switch will probably up for October not to mention last year, he thought switch had a chance of being number 1 even though it got outsold by 900k.

Thats not true, talking about last year Benji was saying that Switch had stronger sales than PS4 until Black Friday, but Black Friday completely changed everything.

While for this year he clearly saying that Switch has much stronger sales compared to last year in same time period, and that was before Black Friday for MK8D bundle for $299 that is sold out while there wasn't any deal last year.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 24 November 2018

Miyamotoo on 24 November 2018

Edit

Nov
PS4-1.6 million
NSW-1.25 million
XBO-1.1 million

Dec
PS4-1.15 million
NSW-2 million
XBO-1.1 million

YTD
PS4-5.75 million
NSW-5.75 million
XBO-4.3 million

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 26 November 2018

quickrick on 24 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

It's really best to just wait for NPD, that analyst thought switch will probably up for October not to mention last year, he thought switch had a chance of being number 1 even though it got outsold by 900k.

Thats not true, talking about last year Benji was saying that Switch had stronger sales than PS4 until Black Friday, but Black Friday completely changed everything.

While for this year he clearly saying that Switch has much stronger sales compared to last year in same time period, and that was before Black Friday for MK8D bundle for $299 that is sold out while there wasn't any deal last year.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14892700

 

He clearly says switch will probably be up for October.



Barkley on 24 November 2018

November

PS4 - 1.6m
Switch - 1.25m
XBO - 1.2m

December

PS4 - 1.2m
Switch - 2m
XBO - 1.2m

 

Are both Nov+Dec 4 weeks?



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Miyamotoo on 24 November 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Thats not true, talking about last year Benji was saying that Switch had stronger sales than PS4 until Black Friday, but Black Friday completely changed everything.

While for this year he clearly saying that Switch has much stronger sales compared to last year in same time period, and that was before Black Friday for MK8D bundle for $299 that is sold out while there wasn't any deal last year.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14892700

He clearly says switch will probably be up for October.

First he said "should probably be up as well", he dont sounded certain at all, second he also said "I wouldn't take Switch up YoY as gospel. The other 2 yes". Also he said this: "Honestly going into the month I thought October Switch would be down by a good margin. Then it was selling so well I thought there was even a chance it could wind up YoY. The fact in the end it came so close to last October is a net gain in my book", "Yeah Switch was what was throwing me off this month. It was just doing way stronger than I had expected going into the month".  With all that in mind he clearly wasnt sure how Switch will exact perform (if will be YoY up or down) and 12% difference is not big difference in any case.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14894043

 

But this what he said how Switch doing in November before Black Friday (that actualy had Switch deal that sold out, while last year there was no deal): "To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already", "Btw for those that underestimated what Switch would do over the holidays with Pokemon and Smash, RIP", "Like Switch last week was fucking insane", "All I'll say is Switch and PS4 are on pace for a massive November".

So he is very certain that Switch have great month and stronger month compared to last year in pre Black Friday period.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 24 November 2018

quickrick on 24 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14892700

He clearly says switch will probably be up for October.

First he said "should probably be up as well", he dont sounded certain at all, second he also said "I wouldn't take Switch up YoY as gospel. The other 2 yes". Also he said this: "Honestly going into the month I thought October Switch would be down by a good margin. Then it was selling so well I thought there was even a chance it could wind up YoY. The fact in the end it came so close to last October is a net gain in my book", "Yeah Switch was what was throwing me off this month. It was just doing way stronger than I had expected going into the month".  With all that in mind he clearly wasnt sure how Switch will exact perform (if will be YoY up or down) and 12% difference is not big difference in any case.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14894043

 

But this what he said how Switch doing in November before Black Friday (that actualy had Switch deal that sold out, while last year there was no deal): "To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already", "Btw for those that underestimated what Switch would do over the holidays with Pokemon and Smash, RIP", "Like Switch last week was fucking insane", "All I'll say is Switch and PS4 are on pace for a massive November".

So he is very certain that Switch have great month and stronger month compared to last year in pre Black Friday period.

Which is what I said, he said he switch probably should be up you said it's not true, it doesn't matter that he said he wasn't sure, no question switch will do better then last year in November but it will it only be around 300k more.



Miyamotoo on 24 November 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

First he said "should probably be up as well", he dont sounded certain at all, second he also said "I wouldn't take Switch up YoY as gospel. The other 2 yes". Also he said this: "Honestly going into the month I thought October Switch would be down by a good margin. Then it was selling so well I thought there was even a chance it could wind up YoY. The fact in the end it came so close to last October is a net gain in my book", "Yeah Switch was what was throwing me off this month. It was just doing way stronger than I had expected going into the month".  With all that in mind he clearly wasnt sure how Switch will exact perform (if will be YoY up or down) and 12% difference is not big difference in any case.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/october-2018-npd-u-s-hardware-predictions-closes-tuesday-november-13th.78860/page-7#post-14894043

 

But this what he said how Switch doing in November before Black Friday (that actualy had Switch deal that sold out, while last year there was no deal): "To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already", "Btw for those that underestimated what Switch would do over the holidays with Pokemon and Smash, RIP", "Like Switch last week was fucking insane", "All I'll say is Switch and PS4 are on pace for a massive November".

So he is very certain that Switch have great month and stronger month compared to last year in pre Black Friday period.

Which is what I said, he said he switch probably should be up you said it's not true, it doesn't matter that he said he wasn't sure, no question switch will do better then last year in November but it will it only be around 300k more.

Yeah but he also said "I wouldn't take Switch up YoY as gospel. The other 2 yes".  All points that Switch having much stronger November than last year (and that was expected because Pokemon Lets Go launch and Black Friday deal) 1.2-1.3m is very possible, even 1.5m isnt out of reach.



quickrick on 24 November 2018

Important note for this thread cyber Monday will be included in this years November NPD unlike last year.



Kerotan on 24 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

Which is what I said, he said he switch probably should be up you said it's not true, it doesn't matter that he said he wasn't sure, no question switch will do better then last year in November but it will it only be around 300k more.

Yeah but he also said "I wouldn't take Switch up YoY as gospel. The other 2 yes".  All points that Switch having much stronger November than last year (and that was expected because Pokemon Lets Go launch and Black Friday deal) 1.2-1.3m is very possible, even 1.5m isnt out of reach.

Switch was low last November so being up a lot YOY is expected.