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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

Miyamotoo on 23 November 2018
colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

Not really, Q4 will from worst to best situation be 3-4m, so we can say 3.5m, 500k less-down will not change much in case. At end of January we will have much more informations in case, but at end of April we will also have not just full FY results but also Nintendo goal for FY 2019.

Another fact??...XD. Switch shipped 2'93M in last Q4....and i really think they overshipped a lot back then because the next Q was less than expected by most. I'm expecting a similar figure this time.

I won't give too much importance to goals because Sony and Nintendo last year were a joke in that regard. I did not believed the original 16M By Sony back then and neither the 20M by Nintendo, but i guess it will be better than nothing. 

Nah, just common sense. :D   Strong momentum from Pokemon of second half of November and Smash Bros in December to NSMBU in January, will mean easily stronger sales than in last year in same time period.



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AngryLittleAlchemist on 23 November 2018

I think for the goal of 20 mil, that NSMBUDX would need to pull some weight, although even without it it's still possible.



Miyamotoo on 23 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
tbone51 said:

Its fine to doubt 20mil still. Its not 100% guaranteed but 16mil is too low no? Last FY Switch sold 15mil and they are about tied up in the first half. The second half is completely in 2018 favor with smash/lets go and Q4 finishes with smash momentum and at least NSMBUDeluxe compared to SMO and Bayo12/Kirby.

 

17mil is the floor and i think thats even low (only up 2mil). 18-19mil seem like the safe bet at the moment. 20mil is in reach and 22mil is the ceiling but doable depending if Q3 can ship at least 12.5mil-13mil

That fiscal year had the benefit of having a seperate launch window and holiday window. As opposed to other consoles that launch in the holiday window. Albeit they had supply issues those issues were mostly gone by september/october.

Nintendo can stubbornly still ship out 20M, but i expect its sales to be no more than 17M for the year. Max 18M. And I say this because I expect PS4 sales to be about 18M for the FY. And expect the switch sales to be below that. 

This is interesting because I think that 18m will be minium that Nintendo will ship this FY, my bet is 18-20m (around 10m in Q3 and around 3.5m in Q4).



Intrinsic on 23 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

That fiscal year had the benefit of having a seperate launch window and holiday window. As opposed to other consoles that launch in the holiday window. Albeit they had supply issues those issues were mostly gone by september/october.

Nintendo can stubbornly still ship out 20M, but i expect its sales to be no more than 17M for the year. Max 18M. And I say this because I expect PS4 sales to be about 18M for the FY. And expect the switch sales to be below that. 

This is interesting because I think that 18m will be minium that Nintendo will ship this FY, my bet is 18-20m (around 10m in Q3 and around 3.5m in Q4).

Oh I am with you on that one. I expect them to ship around 20M. But I only expect around 17-17.5M in actual sales



zorg1000 on 23 November 2018
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
I think for the goal of 20 mil, that NSMBUDX would need to pull some weight, although even without it it's still possible.

Ya I'm assuming that's why they gave it an early January release, to keep post-holiday momentum strong.

I think a lot of people are really underselling it with the mentality that it's a 6 year old port so it wont move hardware but its going to be a Mario Kart 8 Deluxe situation where despite it being a late port it will still be seen as the next big 2D Mario title and the first one since Wii for many people.

It's going to fly past not only the Wii U version but also NSMB2 on 3DS sales numbers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 23 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

This is interesting because I think that 18m will be minium that Nintendo will ship this FY, my bet is 18-20m (around 10m in Q3 and around 3.5m in Q4).

Oh I am with you on that one. I expect them to ship around 20M. But I only expect around 17-17.5M in actual sales

That's about what I'm thinking for 2018 as well. My prediction from the beginning of the year was 17-18 million for both Switch & PS4 and I'm sticking with it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kirby007 on 23 November 2018

@quickrick before you start with excuses what period do you understand as holidays (last 2 weeks of november + december or only the last 3 weeks of the year?) and do you mean ww or just usa?



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JSG87 on 24 November 2018
pikashoe said:
quickrick said:
my thoughts on october switch continues to lose momentum, even though it had the smash bundle which probably gave it a nice 30-40k boost, since it was sold out online long before it came out. ps4 is wow just a beast. november/december will very interesting, ps4 might hit 2 million, switch might break 1.1 million, but will probably see a decline in December as apposed to last year.

Switch will likely be well up for November and December compared to last year. With its two biggest games of the year releasing during these months. Last year November and December's biggest games were Skyrim and xenoblade, this year it's Pokemon and smash. Pokemon is already proving popular and is having very good word of mouth and smash is smash, it's going to shift consoles.

I agree regarding being up November & December. Pokemon will continue to push systems going into December and with Smash already being the most preordered Switch game I can only assume it's gonna push consoles more than Pokemon did.



KazumaKiryu on 27 November 2018

Are Black Friday PS4 sales from USA known? :)



Replicant on 27 November 2018
KazumaKiryu said:
Are Black Friday PS4 sales from USA known? :)

Not yet.

We only know that 300,000 consoles were sold in the UK on Black Friday and that PS4 came in 1st, XB1 2nd, and Switch 3rd.

Additionally, we know that God of War and Pokémon Let's Go (Pikachu! and Evee! versions combined) were the two best selling games in the US on Black Friday.