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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018
Intrinsic said:
Soundwave said:

That's decent for Nintendo. Switch is selling about the same as the PS4 at the same points in their life cycle. 

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

Thats what I have always wondered too. Longevity. 

zorg1000 said:

I think a big factor in that will be how successful they are in transitioning Switch from a one per household to a one per person device like they stated the goal is.

I think thats going to be a tough sell. Its the unfortunate downside of having a box that plugs into a TV (home console part of the hybrid console). The second your box plugs into a TV it becomes a one per household thing.

Furthermore it needs to be priced in handheld territory to even stand that kinda chance.

Nintendo can't have it both ways. Gotta take the good with the bad.

Switch is not hard to sell now with launch price point and single model, why would be tough to be sell later when gets price cuts, different kind of revisions and much more availible games?



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Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018

Talking about sales, in Nov+Dec, 3m is bare minimum that Switch will do (last year sold around 2.3m, 800k in November and 1.5m in December) in same period, we probably talking about 1m+ (it could easily be 1-1.5m) for November and 2m for December.



DonFerrari on 22 November 2018
Soundwave said:
Shadow1980 said:

Moving along...

The Switch is so far trailing the PS4's 2015 performance by only about 4%, or 105k units, and is continuing to far surpass the 3DS (42.8% more units for the Jan.-Oct. period of Year 2). Not too shabby, considering the lack of a price cut or major hardware revision. Smash should provide a huge boost for December, and, if Japan is any indication, Pokemon Let's Go could help out in November (though on the downside the Switch doesn't have the best BF deals).

That's decent for Nintendo. Switch is selling about the same as the PS4 at the same points in their life cycle. 

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

It is good, but we must always keep on mind it is 100 cheaper and launched with a very strong lineup, so they have less pricecuts to do (they are priced the same as PS4 is now after 5 years in the market without slowing down, which I don't think Switch would manage) and system sellers will run their course in the near future. So imho in the next 2 years Switch will probably start to be little below the curve of PS4 aligned.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic on 22 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Intrinsic said:

Thats what I have always wondered too. Longevity. 

I think thats going to be a tough sell. Its the unfortunate downside of having a box that plugs into a TV (home console part of the hybrid console). The second your box plugs into a TV it becomes a one per household thing.

Furthermore it needs to be priced in handheld territory to even stand that kinda chance.

Nintendo can't have it both ways. Gotta take the good with the bad.

Switch is not hard to sell now with launch price point and single model, why would be tough to be sell later when gets price cuts, different kind of revisions and much more availible games?

Thats not what I meant by "going to be a tough sell".

What I meant is that shifting the idea of a switch per household (selling like a home console) to a switch per person (selling like a handheld and having multiple switchs in one household) is going to be a hard thing to accomplish.



tbone51 on 22 November 2018

Nintendo Switch might be hitting close to 3mil December :P



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Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018
DonFerrari said:
Soundwave said:

That's decent for Nintendo. Switch is selling about the same as the PS4 at the same points in their life cycle. 

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

It is good, but we must always keep on mind it is 100 cheaper and launched with a very strong lineup, so they have less pricecuts to do (they are priced the same as PS4 is now after 5 years in the market without slowing down, which I don't think Switch would manage) and system sellers will run their course in the near future. So imho in the next 2 years Switch will probably start to be little below the curve of PS4 aligned.

Well you can say that PS4 was strongest console on market, has much stronger hardware than Switch, 500GB internal memory, Blu-ray support, much stronger 3rd party support...sales shows that both consoles are price aduquate on launch and now. Also you could bought PS4 last Holiday season for $200. I dont saying I disagree with you, I just bridging differences when you compare them.

 

Intrinsic said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

Switch is not hard to sell now with launch price point and single model, why would be tough to be sell later when gets price cuts, different kind of revisions and much more availible games?

Thats not what I meant by "going to be a tough sell".

What I meant is that shifting the idea of a switch per household (selling like a home console) to a switch per person (selling like a handheld and having multiple switchs in one household) is going to be a hard thing to accomplish.

My bad.

Well yeah, Switch or some kind of Switch revision would need to have price point of at least $200 to start selling like device per person. Also its very possible that we will have smaller cheaper Switch revsion whithout dock just for handheld play.



Barkley on 22 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:

Talking about sales, in Nov+Dec, 3m is bare minimum that Switch will do (last year sold around 2.3m, 800k in November and 1.5m in December) in same period, we probably talking about 1m+ (it could easily be 1-1.5m) for November and 2m for December.

Yes imo NPD

Nov - 1.25m
Dec - 2m

Which just happens to be exactly in the middle of your range for nov. xD

Probably about 8.5m globally for Nov+Dec.



tbone51 on 22 November 2018

NPD at an optimistic point of view...

Nov 1.35mil
Dec 2.90mil

Yeahhhh buddy



colafitte on 22 November 2018
Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Talking about sales, in Nov+Dec, 3m is bare minimum that Switch will do (last year sold around 2.3m, 800k in November and 1.5m in December) in same period, we probably talking about 1m+ (it could easily be 1-1.5m) for November and 2m for December.

Yes imo NPD

Nov - 1.25m
Dec - 2m

Which just happens to be exactly in the middle of your range for nov. xD

Probably about 8.5m globally for Nov+Dec.

I expect Switch to ship around 11M in Q3, so probably around 2M left on stores at the end of the year, so yes I share your prediction too, probably around 1M sold in Oct and around 8M, maybe more, in Nov+Dec. If Switch don't reach that 20M goal in won't be because Q3 underachived, it will be because Q1+Q2 did.



Barkley on 22 November 2018
colafitte said:
Barkley said:

Yes imo NPD

Nov - 1.25m
Dec - 2m

Which just happens to be exactly in the middle of your range for nov. xD

Probably about 8.5m globally for Nov+Dec.

I expect Switch to ship around 11M in Q3, so probably around 2M left on stores at the end of the year, so yes I share your prediction too, probably around 1M sold in Oct and around 8M, maybe more, in Nov+Dec. If Switch don't reach that 20M goal in won't be because Q3 underachived, it will be because Q1+Q2 did.

Agreed, mainly Q1. Personally expecting a total of 18.5m shipped this FY.

Q1 - 1.88m
Q2 - 3.2m
Q3 - 10m
Q4 - 3.42m

or possibly Q3 10.5m, Q4 - 3m