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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won October NPD (PS4 > NS > XBO)

MasonADC on 21 November 2018
Farsala said:
RolStoppable said:

1.3m in November, 2m in December. That should do it.

Makes 3.56m for this year's holiday quarter.

Unless the Switch has a megadeal for BF, I think less for November. December could be quite variable 1.8m-2.2m. Wii and DS managed over 2.3m in the same month at one point, so who knows what the Switch will bring.

Obviously BF hasn't happened yet, but Benji has said that Switch is working towards a massive November, so 1.3 million might not be out of the question? How much less do you expect?



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Soundwave on 21 November 2018
Shadow1980 said:

Moving along...

The Switch is so far trailing the PS4's 2015 performance by only about 4%, or 105k units, and is continuing to far surpass the 3DS (42.8% more units for the Jan.-Oct. period of Year 2). Not too shabby, considering the lack of a price cut or major hardware revision. Smash should provide a huge boost for December, and, if Japan is any indication, Pokemon Let's Go could help out in November (though on the downside the Switch doesn't have the best BF deals).

That's decent for Nintendo. Switch is selling about the same as the PS4 at the same points in their life cycle. 

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 



Farsala on 21 November 2018
MasonADC said:
Farsala said:

Unless the Switch has a megadeal for BF, I think less for November. December could be quite variable 1.8m-2.2m. Wii and DS managed over 2.3m in the same month at one point, so who knows what the Switch will bring.

Obviously BF hasn't happened yet, but Benji has said that Switch is working towards a massive November, so 1.3 million might not be out of the question? How much less do you expect?

I think 1.25m+ is reserved for the megadeals in November. I personally think Switch will be around 1.1m to 1.15m. I don't expect either XB1 or PS4 to be too far off. 1.3m for the winner of November NPD. Switch has greater potential in December with Smash and more balanced deals.



bananaking21 on 21 November 2018
zorg1000 said:
bananaking21 said:

It doesn't need to sell 3~ million it need to sell literally 3.5 million (well 3.49m) based on your numbers. That half a million is significant. 

I forgot to factor in Oct numbers, which are around ~260k so it needs ~3.23m in Nov+Dec to match PS4 2015. PS4 did ~3.12m in 2015.

2015 was a really good year for PS4. It has the battlefront bundle and a 2 week promotion during December that was 50$ off with battlefront bundled in for free. It was also the strongest BF deal so far for the PS4. I think it was the Uncharted collection bundle for 299$. So achieving those numbers is no easy task. 

 

We'll see how switch performs, December will be it's biggest month, and it needs to be drastically up from November, but it had a bad Nov last year so it will easily be up. But the question is by how much

 

What were the best December performances for any console? Do you know?



zorg1000 on 21 November 2018
Soundwave said:

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

I think a big factor in that will be how successful they are in transitioning Switch from a one per household to a one per person device like they stated the goal is.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 21 November 2018
bananaking21 said:
zorg1000 said:

I forgot to factor in Oct numbers, which are around ~260k so it needs ~3.23m in Nov+Dec to match PS4 2015. PS4 did ~3.12m in 2015.

2015 was a really good year for PS4. It has the battlefront bundle and a 2 week promotion during December that was 50$ off with battlefront bundled in for free. It was also the strongest BF deal so far for the PS4. I think it was the Uncharted collection bundle for 299$. So achieving those numbers is no easy task. 

 

We'll see how switch performs, December will be it's biggest month, and it needs to be drastically up from November, but it had a bad Nov last year so it will easily be up. But the question is by how much

 

What were the best December performances for any console? Do you know?

Yep holiday 2015 was amazing for PS4 and it will certainly not be an easy task for Switch to beat it but I think it's possible.

Best December

DS-3.31m (2009)

PSP-1.06m (2007)

360-1.86m (2010)

Wii-3.81m (2009)

PS3-1.36m (2009)

3DS-1.50m (2011)

Vita-250k (2012)

Wii U-575k (2014)

PS4-1.58m (2015)

XBO-1.51m (2016)

NSW-1.50m (2017)



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

p0isonparadise on 21 November 2018

Top 10 best December sales.

Wii - 3,810,000 (2009)
DS - 3,310,000 (2009)
DS - 3,040,000 (2008)
PS2 - 2,733,000 (2002)
DS - 2,500,000 (2010)
DS - 2,470,000 (2007)
Wii - 2,360,000 (2010)
GBA - 2,316,000 (2003)
GBA - 2,215,000 (2002)
Wii - 2,150,000 (2008)

NES may have had comparable figure in 1988 when it sold 9m in the USA with 90% market share.



PortisheadBiscuit on 21 November 2018
p0isonparadise said:
Top 10 best December sales.

Wii - 3,810,000 (2009)
DS - 3,310,000 (2009)
DS - 3,040,000 (2008)
PS2 - 2,733,000 (2002)
DS - 2,500,000 (2010)
DS - 2,470,000 (2007)
Wii - 2,360,000 (2010)
GBA - 2,316,000 (2003)
GBA - 2,215,000 (2002)
Wii - 2,150,000 (2008)

NES may have had comparable figure in 1988 when it sold 9m in the USA with 90% market share.

Nintendo is just a beast in December 



Intrinsic on 21 November 2018
Soundwave said:

That's decent for Nintendo. Switch is selling about the same as the PS4 at the same points in their life cycle. 

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

Thats what I have always wondered too. Longevity. 

zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:

Again the key for Switch will be how Nintendo can hold up the ecosystem in the later years, the PS4 is very strong in its later years and even XBox One has gained momentum mainly owing to the Pro/X effect IMO. 

I think a big factor in that will be how successful they are in transitioning Switch from a one per household to a one per person device like they stated the goal is.

I think thats going to be a tough sell. Its the unfortunate downside of having a box that plugs into a TV (home console part of the hybrid console). The second your box plugs into a TV it becomes a one per household thing.

Furthermore it needs to be priced in handheld territory to even stand that kinda chance.

Nintendo can't have it both ways. Gotta take the good with the bad.



Miyamotoo on 22 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:
OP should be updated thread with more informations from official NPD statement.

In any case top 10 selling Switch games for October:

1. Super Mario Party
2. Mario Kart 8
3. Super Mario Odyssey
4. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
5. Diablo III
6. Starlink: Battle For Atlas
7. Dark Souls Remastered
8. The World Ends with You: Final Remix
9. Lego DC Super Villains
10. My Hero One's Justice


I am very happy seeing that Diablo III, Starlink: Battle For Atlas and Dark Souls Remastered charting very good on Switch list,
all those games are right after Mario Party and Switch evergreens (Zelda, MK8DX and Odyssey).
Those games deserves good sales on Switch.

Number 1 to 4 we know are selling well. Saying that 5 to 10 are doing well because they are close to the top 4 doesn't guarantee they are. There could be a huge gap from the sales of 4 and 5.

I also wouldn't say such a late port of games like diabo being number 5 is a good indication of your platforms overall software situation. 

Like I wrote:

First, despite those game that released over year ago they still are best selling Switch games every quarter, every quarter each of that games sells more than 1m. Second, you cant offten see that any 3rd party game and espacily multiplatform game can sneak up in top 10 selling Switch games, fact that those 3 games take positions after Switch evergreens proves they sell quite good in any case. Third, only Starlink is a new game, others are ports of older games, and funny enuogh, Starlink and Dark Souls Remastered (on release) did not charted on PS4 and XB1 lists of best selling games for those platforms while they did for Switch, while Diablo 3 was on sale only like 2 days and managed to take 5. position.

Kerotan said: 
MasonADC said: 

I can't believe that the 3rd party titles can't splatoon from making the list, so that's something 

What happened to Splatoon? Is it not as big outside of Japan? 

Nothing, those 3rd party games sold better this month. Splatoon was always strongest in Japan even if its quite good on other markets too.