Good comment. Although I would not necessarily say we overestimated demand for Switch. iirc Even with stock issues Switch shipped/sold 16.4 mil in first year versus 14.5 for PS4 first year. Or something like that. The problem is that this year just has the heavy hitters stacked in the last two months. Or at least, in my uneducated opinion.

By the way "then it wouldn't shock me if it it fails to outsell 3DS or even PSP" 

Didn't PSP sell more than 3ds? Shouldn't it be the opposite way around?

the ps4 first year comparison  vs switch was always bad, very bad. ps4 launched during the holiday was severally limited in supply, basically having a minor boost in during  a time where it could ship 6-7 million with out a launch boost included, it only shipped 4.1 million with a launch, boost stock issues were massive.

Stock issues were bad for Switch for months on end ... 

I would say the stock issues were about the same just from an outsiders perspective

lol no, not even close, ps4 only had 4.1 million for the holidays and launch, its first 2 months just to put in perspective switch had 2.7 million just for launch with out the holidays its first  2 months. i know switch had stock issues but they were minor in slow months.

Wrong.

The PS4 SOLD 4.2 million units by December 28th, 2013. That's SOLD through to consumers. (https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/release/2014/140108a.html)

I can't tell whether or not the IR report is shipped or sold (I'm assuming shipped, lord knows we've come to that conclusion on many previous discussions after heated debate, and either way it doesn't matter considering that PS4's number is sold through) but it took Switch 3.75 months to hit 4.7 million units (https://wccftech.com/nintendo-switch-sold-4-7m-units-june-30/) 

In other words, PS4's sell-through rate in it's holiday launch was almost as much as Switch's shipments in almost FOUR MONTHS

4.2 million shipped.  dudejust compare time frames, with out a launch boost  and see the massive difference in shipments numbers. ps4 could have shipped 7- million easy with a holiday and launch boost, its regularly ships around 6-8 million during that period look at what switch is shipping this year in the same time period when it was supply contrained.

It's not 4.2m shipped, the article he links has a footnote that says it's estimated sell-through.

Shipments were 4.5m as of December 30th 2013. https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data/hardware_sale.html

However I agree that a separate launch and holiday season is an advantage to a single holiday launch from a sales perspective. That is an advantage in favour of the Switch when it comes to launch aligned first year imo.

its 4.2, and yes its a massive advantage for Nintendo. 

https://www.gamespot.com/forums/games-discussion-1000000/sony-q3-financial-report-massive-loss-coming-31065017/

So you're going to ignore Sony's own financials on their own website in favour of a GameSpot forum thread. Wow. No it's 4.5m shipped as of December 30th, 4.2m estimated sell-through as of December 28th. These are Sony's official figures.