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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch’s next evergreen/blue ocean title(s)

Fifa 19



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Pokemon Let's Go, Smash Bros. and Mario 2D.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Slownenberg said:

Nah. Pokemon Let's Go isn't going to bring in non-gamers who played a free to play mobile game. You think they are going to go from a free mobile game to dropping $360 + tax to get a Pokemon game that's called "Go" but doesn't have the main feature that made Pokemon Go a viral hit. Not a chance in hell. Not to mention most of those people stopped playing Pokemon Go in 2016.

Pokemon Let's Go will sell to devout Pokemon fans, just much less so than the mainline Pokemon game that is coming next year.

Pokemon Let's Go is the Wii U of Pokemon games, its the "sequel" to a huge success but is a half measure between two great ideas and doesn't have that exciting new way to play that made it go viral ("play pokemon out in the real world wow!", "play with motion controls wow!" --> "play pokemon on a console but with the dumbed down mechanics of mobile for no reason...meh", "use motion controls but have this single large awkward controller with a screen....meh". Wii U was a halfway measure between the two huge successes Wii and Switch. Pokemon Let's Go is the halfway measure between playing Pokemon outside with simpler casual mobile gameplay and getting the first console version of Pokemon which fans have been wanting for a long time - those two separate things are brilliant, but the half-way house that is Pokemon Let's Go, taking it to console and then taking out all the stuff that made Go exciting and keeping in all the stuff that made sense only on mobile is blaaaahhhhh.

Pokemon Let's Go I'm sure will sell at least 5 - 10 million purely based on the Pokemon brand name and the fact that the Switch is super hot (and probably because its the first AAA Ninty franchise release since Mario 13 months prior), but it isn't gonna be bringing in casual mobile non-gamers and it isn't a substitute for a mainline pokemon game, which is why the real one is coming next year. A portion of huge Pokemon fans will buy it, which could still be like 10 million, as they wait for the real thing a year later.

I think you make a good point that applies to about 99% of Pokemon Go players.  But all you need is 1% to buy a Switch to get an additional 6.5 million people.

Of all the people who ever downloaded Pokemon Go sure. But of the people who still care about it today, that 1% would bring in what like maybe 20k people. The hundreds of millions of people who haven't played Pokemon Go in two years are not going to be thinking about paying $360 for another pokemon game that isn't anything like Pokemon Go but has "Go" in the title, not even 1% of them, the vast majority of them won't even know Pokemon Let's Go exists. And honestly the people who are still playing are all previous pokemon fans. So really that 6.5 million number that went down to ~20k in reality goes down to roughly zero. Like I said, a pokemon game that has "Go" in the title but doesn't have anything that made Pokemon Go a viral hit, and isn't a free to play mobile game, is not going to be picking up non-gamers who played Pokemon Go a couple years ago. Pokemon Let's Go will appeal to a portion of the normal Pokemon crowd, that is it. It will sell well off the brand name, but the mainline Pokemon game coming a year later will outsell it several fold likely.



Slownenberg said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I think you make a good point that applies to about 99% of Pokemon Go players.  But all you need is 1% to buy a Switch to get an additional 6.5 million people.

Of all the people who ever downloaded Pokemon Go sure. But of the people who still care about it today, that 1% would bring in what like maybe 20k people. The hundreds of millions of people who haven't played Pokemon Go in two years are not going to be thinking about paying $360 for another pokemon game that isn't anything like Pokemon Go but has "Go" in the title, not even 1% of them, the vast majority of them won't even know Pokemon Let's Go exists. And honestly the people who are still playing are all previous pokemon fans. So really that 6.5 million number that went down to ~20k in reality goes down to roughly zero. Like I said, a pokemon game that has "Go" in the title but doesn't have anything that made Pokemon Go a viral hit, and isn't a free to play mobile game, is not going to be picking up non-gamers who played Pokemon Go a couple years ago. Pokemon Let's Go will appeal to a portion of the normal Pokemon crowd, that is it. It will sell well off the brand name, but the mainline Pokemon game coming a year later will outsell it several fold likely.

Pokemon Go is currently the #2 grossing app on iOS.  It is still hugely popular.  



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Slownenberg said:

Of all the people who ever downloaded Pokemon Go sure. But of the people who still care about it today, that 1% would bring in what like maybe 20k people. The hundreds of millions of people who haven't played Pokemon Go in two years are not going to be thinking about paying $360 for another pokemon game that isn't anything like Pokemon Go but has "Go" in the title, not even 1% of them, the vast majority of them won't even know Pokemon Let's Go exists. And honestly the people who are still playing are all previous pokemon fans. So really that 6.5 million number that went down to ~20k in reality goes down to roughly zero. Like I said, a pokemon game that has "Go" in the title but doesn't have anything that made Pokemon Go a viral hit, and isn't a free to play mobile game, is not going to be picking up non-gamers who played Pokemon Go a couple years ago. Pokemon Let's Go will appeal to a portion of the normal Pokemon crowd, that is it. It will sell well off the brand name, but the mainline Pokemon game coming a year later will outsell it several fold likely.

Pokemon Go is currently the #2 grossing app on iOS.  It is still hugely popular.  

Doesn't change the fact that only a tiny fraction of the number of people that played it in 2016 play it now, and an even tinier fraction of the 650 million total downloads. Like I said, those people still playing it are very likely all people who are hardcore pokemon fans, and therefore they are not this group of non-gamers that you expect to suddenly go out and buy a Switch in order to get Let's Go and make it the Switch's all time best selling game, because that group you are talking about as I said is roughly zero. There are many, many millions of Pokemon fans out there, and yes some of them are still playing Pokemon Go, and very likely they will buy Let's Go, but that is precisely who is already expected to buy Let's Go - hardcore pokemon fans.



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Slownenberg said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Pokemon Go is currently the #2 grossing app on iOS.  It is still hugely popular.  

Doesn't change the fact that only a tiny fraction of the number of people that played it in 2016 play it now, and an even tinier fraction of the 650 million total downloads. Like I said, those people still playing it are very likely all people who are hardcore pokemon fans, and therefore they are not this group of non-gamers that you expect to suddenly go out and buy a Switch in order to get Let's Go and make it the Switch's all time best selling game, because that group you are talking about as I said is roughly zero. There are many, many millions of Pokemon fans out there, and yes some of them are still playing Pokemon Go, and very likely they will buy Let's Go, but that is precisely who is already expected to buy Let's Go - hardcore pokemon fans.

Do you have data on this?  Anecdotally, everyone I know who plays Pokemon doesn't play Pokemon Go, while all the Pokemon Go people I know either played as a kid (and stopped) or they are getting into Pokemon for the first time.  

Generally, Pokemon games have mostly been for kids, while Pokemon Go appeals mostly to adults.  Pokemon Let's Go is to get adults into Pokemon, especially adults who played Pokemon as kids and then stopped as adults.