The sources prelims have MK coming in at 500k or so in Japan (which line up well with 300k+ day 1 sales)
Can it get 500k from others this week?
I think it has a shot. MK released early in the week there, so it won't have the typical weird others open (= week 1 and 2).
If it can sell 1 million this week the Wii will add millions sellers 23, 24, and 25 in one week. (MySims, MKWii, RRR2)
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut