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Forums - Nintendo - So... Will Nintendo be able to ship those 20 million Switch units?

zorg1000 on 21 June 2018
bubblegamer said:
zorg1000 said:

Yep, thats totally why they surpassed last years projection despite raising the forcast twice.......

Ah so you agree that "most" does not mean always? Nice to know.

Is it most? I would like to see the tally of times they met and times they missed their forcasts.

Sure they had a bad streak for a few years but in the last couple years they have supassed their forcasts, even with revising them upwards on a few occasions.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 on 21 June 2018
quickrick said:
bubblegamer said:

Ah so you agree that "most" does not mean always? Nice to know.

Yea people don't remember with the wiiu nintendo kept there forcast of 10 million for 2 years, even though they didn't have a chance in hell of doing it.

How did they keep a yearly forcast the same for 2 years? That makes literally no sense whatsoever.

Also any comparison to Wii U is beyond bumb at this point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick on 21 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Megiddo said:

You think that the Switch will not have a problem reaching 100 million software sales because 1.4% of that goal was sold in the Switch's strongest region in May? It's not like the Wii U was some sort of console sales machine and 2011 was 5 years into the Wii which is well past its sharp decline I believe.

You dont know about how much percent we talking about, remember this 90% increase without digital sales. For the record, Switch sold 8.15m software units in hole Q1 of last year with games like Zelda BotW and MK8D released in March and April, and in 13 moths sold 69m software. With much higher install base and much more games releasing, it will not have problem reaching 100m.

Megiddo said:

Games with digital only sales are not included in the 100 million goal. And if you have better software numbers I'd love to see them as I agree VGchartz is not reliable. Did Nintendo announce total software sold last quarter during their fiscal report?

Yes it did, 16.4m for January-March period.

Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

 

bubblegamer said:
Not happening. Nintendo overestimates most of their projections anyways so it's not that surprising to me. Besides Switch is not selling that well and it would have to sell 30 to 40% more than the almighty PS4 to make it. So nope.

Actually with Switch they underestimated every their projection until now, and then increased projection almost every quarter. Switch is selling very well (on pair with second PS4 year in US) and I really don't see why Switch needs to sell more than PS4 currently to meet their goal.

ps4 in 2015 from jan-may was its worst year ever, and ps4 would still by up by 45k, if each console had the same time frame since switch got a extra which =50k. now aside from that nintendo own data shows that americas is a much stronger region then europe and ROTW, while sony NA is  much weaker so do the math, really nintendo has to destroy ps4 in NA to have a chance of hitting 20 million.



pikashoe on 21 June 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

You dont know about how much percent we talking about, remember this 90% increase without digital sales. For the record, Switch sold 8.15m software units in hole Q1 of last year with games like Zelda BotW and MK8D released in March and April, and in 13 moths sold 69m software. With much higher install base and much more games releasing, it will not have problem reaching 100m.

Yes it did, 16.4m for January-March period.

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

 

Actually with Switch they underestimated every their projection until now, and then increased projection almost every quarter. Switch is selling very well (on pair with second PS4 year in US) and I really don't see why Switch needs to sell more than PS4 currently to meet their goal.

ps4 in 2015 from jan-may was its worst year ever, and ps4 would still by up by 45k, if each console had the same time frame since switch got a extra which =50k. now aside from that nintendo own data shows that americas is a much stronger region then europe and ROTW, while sony NA is  much weaker so do the math, really nintendo has to destroy ps4 in NA to have a chance of hitting 20 million.

What's with the nintendo hate boner?



Megiddo on 21 June 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Megiddo said:

I mean, I don't know what software was launched on the Wii in 2011 in May nor do I care to find out. The reason I said "Wii was well past its sharp decline I believe" was in relation to the Switch's May software. I never even mentioned whether or not the Wii in 2011 reached 100 million software, you did.

My argument is based on data. Smash and Pokemon could very well sell 30 million units this fiscal year but what else is there to sell the rest? Mario Kart, BOTW, Splatoon 2, and Odyssey combined for over 30 million units last fiscal year and yet software was no even anywhere close to 100 million.

If you want to have a data-derived argument, then show me your thinking into exactly how Nintendo will reach 100 million software this fiscal year with the lineup they have announced. You've given me Smash and Pokemon for 30 million. You've got 70 million left.

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

Last year people who wanted to buy Mario Kart 8D and Zelda Breath of the Wild could not because stores did not have any copies in stock. This year there are no stock issues.



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Miyamotoo on 21 June 2018
quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

You dont know about how much percent we talking about, remember this 90% increase without digital sales. For the record, Switch sold 8.15m software units in hole Q1 of last year with games like Zelda BotW and MK8D released in March and April, and in 13 moths sold 69m software. With much higher install base and much more games releasing, it will not have problem reaching 100m.

Yes it did, 16.4m for January-March period.

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

 

Actually with Switch they underestimated every their projection until now, and then increased projection almost every quarter. Switch is selling very well (on pair with second PS4 year in US) and I really don't see why Switch needs to sell more than PS4 currently to meet their goal.

ps4 in 2015 from jan-may was its worst year ever, and ps4 would still by up by 45k, if each console had the same time frame since switch got a extra which =50k.

now aside from that nintendo own data shows that americas is a much stronger region then europe and ROTW, while sony NA is  much weaker so do the math, really nintendo has to destroy ps4 in NA to have a chance of hitting 20 million.

With point that Switch this year had weak lineup until May and that didnt had any big game, we could expect that this 1st half of year also be one weakest 1st half of year for Switch. One week and 50k dont relly change nothing.

How PS4 is performing don't have anything with Nintendo's goal for 20m Switch units, its obvious that Nintendo expecting strongest sales at end of year when Pokemon and Smash Bros arive.



Miyamotoo on 21 June 2018
Megiddo said:
Miyamotoo said:

Tell us what exactly software give boost of 90% now in May in US compared to last year without digital sales?

From some reason you dont count higher install base, large numbers of games and increasing attach rate with every month. Fact is that Switch games are selling great and that's without new heavy hitters.

Last year people who wanted to buy Mario Kart 8D and Zelda Breath of the Wild could not because stores did not have any copies in stock. This year there are no stock issues.

Actualy games like MK8D and Zelda BotW are must have games in any case for almost every Switch owner thats why those games have attach rate around 50%, point is that on Switch even last year Switch games are selling great, not only this years and heavy hitters.



quickrick on 21 June 2018
zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

Yea people don't remember with the wiiu nintendo kept there forcast of 10 million for 2 years, even though they didn't have a chance in hell of doing it.

How did they keep a yearly forcast the same for 2 years? That makes literally no sense whatsoever.

Also any comparison to Wii U is beyond bumb at this point.

Not comparing to wiiu, comparing forecasts, nintendo was even way off with switch, last year, so not sure why people put so much stock in them. 

pikashoe said:
quickrick said:

ps4 in 2015 from jan-may was its worst year ever, and ps4 would still by up by 45k, if each console had the same time frame since switch got a extra which =50k. now aside from that nintendo own data shows that americas is a much stronger region then europe and ROTW, while sony NA is  much weaker so do the math, really nintendo has to destroy ps4 in NA to have a chance of hitting 20 million.

What's with the nintendo hate boner?

Discussing sales = nintendo hate boner? 



Megiddo on 21 June 2018

Edit: Wrong data, ignore.

Last edited by Megiddo - on 21 June 2018

pikashoe on 21 June 2018
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

How did they keep a yearly forcast the same for 2 years? That makes literally no sense whatsoever.

Also any comparison to Wii U is beyond bumb at this point.

Not comparing to wiiu, comparing forecasts, nintendo was even way off with switch, last year, so not sure why people put so much stock in them. 

pikashoe said:

What's with the nintendo hate boner?

Discussing sales = nintendo hate boner? 

Going onto every single nintendo thread spouting negativity is. I've never heard you say a positive word about anything nintendo related. Your going to end up giving yourself a bad reputation.