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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 Won April NPD ( PS4 > NSW > XBO)

DonFerrari on 18 May 2018
kirby007 said:
The thing is if i work woth + and -
+20% +20% -20% sum becomes 20% off
Yes there might be ways to avoid that but this is sinplistic

Well you can sum the module (ignore the signal) and get the 60%

Aura7541 said:
Hiku said:

Yeah, I saw someone mention the possibility of Jp sales being subtracted because it supposedly happened before. Didn't know that info came from Zhuge, or if anyone did the math with the latest estimates from EA to see if it adds up.

If they're somehow trying to track unique owners, then I wonder what method they're using. I imagine that would be hard even for Sony and MS to accurately track, because people can either use their existing PSN/XBL accounts on their new machines, or create unique accounts for them.

My guess (and Don's) would be EA taking stuff like average system failure rates and proportion of Pro/XB1X sales being upgrade purchases into account. Otherwise, your guess is as good as mine.

DonFerrari said:

Well we don't know how accurate Zhuge numbers are. But the exclusion of Japan on the EA estimatives didn't made much sense because their projection for FY18 considering Sony projection would put X1 at to high of a number to reach.

But sure neither of us can be sure of 60 or 70% and I have no issue accepting the first as more probable.

From what was discussed on the original EA numbers people made the math without Japan and that left the result for the 2018 forecast to high for X1.

Perhaps the exclusion of overlap of X1X and PS4Pro plus broken systems (or at least consider a flat 5% rate) could make numbers match between Sony shipments, sell throughs and EA estimatives.

But I would value EA data higher than Zhuge considering they probably have a much higher accuracy for MS numbers being a major developer that MS negotiates marketing deals and probably disclose under NDA some precise numbers. Besides all public and subscribed data that Zhuge would have access EA would as well (even more when probably hire/pay Zhuge company for their numbers).

That's fair. I never claimed that Zhuge is gospel, but I do trust that he thinks things over and calculates his estimates carefully. The only other source we have is the JRR report and some of their PS4 shipment numbers are off. They have the XB1 shipments at 32.15 million by the end of 2017, which I think is too low. Their 2014, 2015, and 2016 XB1 shipment numbers actually look alright, but 2013 is too low. JRR has it at 3.08m, but Microsoft said they shipped 3.9m by the end of 2013.

Well I guess Zhuge tracking and predictions is more accurate than most of us and perhaps even VGC itself, and I agree you didn't claim you just quoted his numbers.

But yes I do agree 30M for X1 seems a low number unless we could get MS to tell their numbers or AMD.



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Errorist76 on 18 May 2018
Aura7541 said:
Hiku said:

Any idea how EA determine the install base? If one person buys a PS4 Slim and then a PS4 Pro, does that count as 1 or 2 units to them?

There are two possible scenarios. Zhuge mentioned that EA has left out Japanese sales in the past. If you subtract the PS4's sell-through sans Japan sales from EA's estimate, then the XB1's sales is close to 35m.

Or EA is actually trying to estimate the actual number of systems in homes. IIRC, Sony mentioned that about 50% of the Pro's sales are upgrade purchases, meaning only half of the Pro's sales add to the install base.

So what do you think happens to the old consoles? They're most likely sold to people who didn’t own a PS4 before, so they indeed add to the install base as well.

y 



manny10032 on 18 May 2018
pitzy272 said:
Megiddo said:

God of War, Spider-man, Kingdom Hearts 3, Red Dead Redemption 2, COD BLOPS IV
 
Sony is going to blow 16 mil right out of the park.

Was CoD Blops 4 confirmed Sony marketing?

Yes it does



fatslob-:O on 18 May 2018
quickrick said:

The 3 months switch also gets extra week in JAN.  April switch was much closer, almost even to ps4 sales then the last 2 months, we'll agree to disagree. 

He could be factoring in his judgement that Nintendo hardware usually has a history of being front loaded thus leading into his disappointment of Switch's performance for the April NPD but this is only the beginning since it get's progressively slower this time of the year until the last quarter ... 

It says a lot about his expectations ... 



GProgrammer on 18 May 2018
kirby007 said:
The thing is if i work woth + and -
+20% +20% -20% sum becomes 20% off
Yes there might be ways to avoid that but this is sinplistic

It might be simplistic but its 100% wrong

+20% +20% -20% = 20% off, 20% off, 20% off = average of 20% error

To easily prove what you're saying is nonsense think of

sales ps4 1000 switch 1000 xb1 1000

person 1 guessed 500, 2000, 500

person 2 guessed 1000,1001,1000

you're claiming person 1 is more accurate than person 2



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duduspace1 on 18 May 2018

Great performance for PS4. Not bad performance for Switch considering the HW is basically selling itself for now with Labo and Kirby being the only truly new games so far this year. Nintendo need to up their SW game and the following months do look promising. Also considering Labo released late in April, its effect might be a bit shifted into the new month. May NPD should confirm any trend in that direction.



Aura7541 on 18 May 2018
Intrinsic said:
Aura7541 said:

It looks like that person got that percentage from dividing XB1's NPD LTD numbers by the quantity of EA's install base estimate minus Sony's PS4 sell-through numbers. It's already established that subtracting the PS4's sell-through numbers from EA's estimate is not an accurate way of finding out the XB1's WW sales. Last time I checked, the US made out around 60% of the XB1's total sales. A jump from 60% to 70% is hard to believe, in my opinion.

Not that aI agree with the dude, but a jump from 60 to 70% isn't that far fetched when you consider that its a not a jump at all..... in truth it just means that the XB1's performance outside NA is getting worse. The worse it gets outside NA the bigger a percentage NA will represent in sales.

My numbers might be a little off, but I have the XB1 selling around 20.15m in the US LTD by the end of last year. Coupled with the approximate 35m WW LTD sales, that will put the US % at 57.57%. We know for sure that over the first quarter of this year, the US % went up. Microsoft said that XB1 sales increased YOY by 15% while NPD figures show that American sales increased YOY by 37% in the same time period.



Kerotan on 18 May 2018
Megiddo said:
zorg1000 said:

125k

Thanks. Looks pretty good for the Switch then in comparison.

You should be comparing switch to 3ds + Wii u not just one of them. It's the sequel to both of them. And in the US it's probably doing good in this comparison. 

Jranation said:
Kerotan said:

Sony have such an awesome year. Surely a permanent price cut this holiday aswell. 

Labo didn't exactly have a wow month. 

 

A lot of people were saying it did bad. But it came third in the US! It must have done well

Coming third in a month with only 1 other big release doesn't automatically mean success. It definitely didn't set the world alight and it seems to have very little hype post launch. I presume those saying it did bad were expecting it to be the next Wii sports or brain training phenomenon from Nintendo. 



Kerotan on 18 May 2018

So may, June, July and August npd. Who takes the summer cheese?



zorg1000 on 19 May 2018
Kerotan said:
Megiddo said:

Thanks. Looks pretty good for the Switch then in comparison.

You should be comparing switch to 3ds + Wii u not just one of them. It's the sequel to both of them. And in the US it's probably doing good in this comparison. 

2nd April

3DS-125k

Wii U-48k

3DS+Wii U-173k

NSW-171k

 

2nd YTD

3DS-770k

Wii U-260k

3DS+Wii U-1030k

NSW-1030k

 

Switch is doing about as well as them combined so far this year.



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