Think GOW is a lock on for 10m now no doubt.
Spiderman I think will do well just because we are at a stage where super hero movies are doing well, I think thats a 7.5m easy.
Detroit is a 5m-7m range imho. it will do very well for the type of game it is. With HR doing 5 odd million, good chance it will do 6m easily.

Horizon was arguably not even as good as Nier, Nioh and Persona 5 in the same year, gameplay wise at least. Design wise it far from broke any ground. It was well executed, but it's not exactly Gears Of War in that respect. It sold more than Gears for sure, but Gears didn't release on the PS4 which is a software shifting beast. Far Cry 5 sold 5 million in 1 week, Monster Hunter World sold 7.9 million in 2 months, both of these selling mainly on the PS4, yet you find it hard to come to terms with the idea of Spider-Man selling over 5 million in it's lifetime?

I'm pretty sure Insomniac are dedicated to this project every bit as much as Guerilla was to Horizon, and rest assured, it's been in development for a good 4-5 years too. They are putting everything they have into it just as much, and lets face it, Insomniac have a far better history than Guerilla when it comes to good games, so if anything I have more faith in them to make something great.

There's room for more than one super hyped exclusive in any given year. Just because the PS4 has only had one per year for the last few years doesn't mean that can't change. You're pretty much the only one I've seen on the internet who thinks there isn't a lot of hype for Spider-Man. In fact, before the review scores for GoW I would have said there was more hype for Spider-Man overall. Which is why you should also wait for how this game reviews, because if it does 90+ metacritic and is basically the Arkham City of Marvel games, then I don't see any Universe where it couldn't sell 5+ million or even 10 million on the PS4.

And what do you even mean by 'common game'? If the game ends up being good it's good. It might even be great. It's a game with the same budget as UC4, Horizon, GoW. It has the same jaw dropping visuals, and it has had an equally positive reception from people who have played it. It's just as likely to 'steal the scene' as Horizon. Spider-Man will outsell Horizon, and score higher on Metacritic. Easy.

BraLoD, I don’t think I normally disagree with you, but I really do on the topic of Spider-Man ps4’s hype and sales. I would say, with a large degree of confidence, that 5 million will be the floor for this game. I would not be surprised in the least if it did >10 mil. Of course, if this game ends up majorly disappointing (unlikely), all of these lofty expectations would be moot. As for the debate vs. GoW, it’s really tough to gauge whether it has more hype or will do bigger numbers than GoW. but I do think GoW will take it.

Probably the impact of X1 for MHW is similar for FF XV, which had like 80-90% of sales on PS4... so it is possible that the numbers is for all SKU which is almost the same as only PS4 version.