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Forums - Nintendo - Will the Switch outsell the Wii?

zorg1000 said:
fatslob-:O said:

How convenient of you to leave out Diamond/Pearl ... 

DS

D/P-17.67m

B/W-15.64m

HG/SS-12.72m

B2/W2-7.81m

Total-53.84m

 

3DS

X/Y-16.26m

S/M-16.05m

OR/AS-13.94m

US/UM-7.17m

Total-53.42m

 

Keep in mind 3DS titles are still selling, i dont really see how you can say its a decline.

And in relation to the OP, this proves that sales of Pokemon or any Nintendo exclusive does not garuntee higher hardware sales. Despite the DS more than doubling the 3DS in sales, it sells about the same (or maybe less) Pokemon games. You tend to find that Nintendos main stay exclusives can sell their expected amount within 40-50 million hardware units.

Of course you could say that both Zelda and Mario on the Switch are set to be the best selling entries in the franchise. This is true, but that's more down to mindshare, same happened to many Sony games on PS4. I don't doubt God Of War 4 will vastly outsell God Of War 1 2 or 3 just the same. The only ones whos franchises are on decline are MS. This is, again, down to mindshare.



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Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Just fact is that that isn't true, Wii was not decline, so it accurate to say but that their home consoles were in continuous decline.

Yes it is accurate, one piece of data does not disprove a trend. 4 out of 5 following this pattern is a clear correlation.

To distance yourself from any personal feelings let's try something else, let's look at some made-up data from temperatures.

Average Temperature Februrary

Feb 2010 - 6.7c
Feb 2011 - 6.9c
Feb 2012 - 7.0c
Feb 2013 - 7.1c
Feb 2014 - 6.6c
Feb 2015 - 7.2c

Would you really say that the statement "February is getting warmer" is false? Due to a single year?

 

You need bigger sample size, and a graph to illustrate it...... and even then alot of people wont believe you.

Climate change isnt real! because...... I dont know. /s

Nasa does it like this:

From this graph most people would go "what happend in 1920, and in 1980"?
Others would go No trend, climate change is made up.

 

For those that dont believe it, go to this site:  https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
Play around with the slider that shows the temp from year 1880 -> 2017.

 

"Seventeen of the 18 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred since 2001"

Every year is a new record (17 outta last 18 year),..... and its hotter than ever.... nah its all made up :p

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 29 March 2018

Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Just fact is that that isn't true, Wii was not decline, so it accurate to say but that their home consoles were in continuous decline.

Yes it is accurate, one piece of data does not disprove a trend. 4 out of 5 following this pattern is a clear correlation.

To distance yourself from any personal feelings let's try something else, let's look at some made-up data from temperatures.

Average Temperature Februrary

Feb 2010 - 6.7c
Feb 2011 - 6.9c
Feb 2012 - 7.0c
Feb 2013 - 7.1c
Feb 2014 - 6.6c
Feb 2015 - 7.2c

Would you really say that the statement "February is getting warmer" is false? Due to a single year?

 

But fact is that Wii wasnt decline and that Wii exist, @quickrick specifkly ignored Wii sales and said that reason why Wii U sold so bad is because Nintendo home consoles are in decline, saying that Wii was just light in bottle and ignoring reasons that lead to Wii U being Nintendo biggest fail. There are specifk reasons why Wii U is biggest Nintendo fail, why Wii sold so much and why Switch is selling so great now, that dont have anuthing with "trend decline" of Nintendo home consoles.



Miyamotoo said:

But fact is that Wii wasnt decline and that Wii exist, @quickrick specifkly ignored Wii sales and said that reason why Wii U sold so bad is because Nintendo home consoles are in decline, saying that Wii was just light in bottle and ignoring reasons that lead to Wii U being Nintendo biggest fail. There are specifk reasons why Wii U is biggest Nintendo fail, why Wii sold so much and why Switch is selling so great now, that dont have anuthing with "trend decline" of Nintendo home consoles.

I agree it is a gross simplification, and that the existence of the trend doesn't necessarily have any impact on actual sales or potential sales. That there are many reasons and factors for a systems success or failure, regardless of it's value however, the statement or trend is still correct.

But yes, I don't agree with Quickrick that "only reason it failed because there simply wasn't a market for a dedicated nintendo home console". There were many much bigger reasons at play.

I do agree with him that Nintendo wouldn't have developed a unified system if they had two separate systems selling gangbusters though. After all they'd never have followed the Wii and DS with a unified product, as a single system could never do as well as the DS and Wii combined.



Barkley said:
Wyrdness said:

When you add Wii and Switch it shows a different story as then it shows up trends happening as Switch is going to outsell GC and N64 by the end of its second year and will go on to outsell SNES as well. This goes against your lightning in a bottle argument as Switch already has an upward trend that will be closer to Wii than any of the other home consoles.

His point is that the Switch unified their Handheld and Home Console business because they couldn't compete in the home market, so the Switch beating this trend is the point of his post, not something that goes against what he said. Whether this was Nintendo's reason or not I don't know, but that their home consoles were in continuous decline, bar one, is true.

That Nintendo wouldn't dream of creating a unified platform if both Home and Handheld were seeing great success makes sense though, would they have ever dreamt of following up the Wii and DS with a system that combines both? No because that limits the sales potential, if everyone is willing to buy two systems there's no point in combining them so they only have to buy one.

Well he's wrong because the reason for unifying userbase is to focus on one platform and save a tonne of resources, even Sony couldn't support 2 platforms, having two platforms was twice the work and resources only where as Sony quit one market Nintendo came up with a form factor to have one platform hit both markets.

I find it funny the lack of business understanding some people have as its not about both platforms selling well it's also about whether the approach is healthy and sustainable because if it isn't it'll just implode, developing for portables was equivalent to developing for consoles and most games would require a version for both portable and home so having two platforms became a hindrance and resource sink.



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Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

But fact is that Wii wasnt decline and that Wii exist, @quickrick specifkly ignored Wii sales and said that reason why Wii U sold so bad is because Nintendo home consoles are in decline, saying that Wii was just light in bottle and ignoring reasons that lead to Wii U being Nintendo biggest fail. There are specifk reasons why Wii U is biggest Nintendo fail, why Wii sold so much and why Switch is selling so great now, that dont have anuthing with "trend decline" of Nintendo home consoles.

I agree it is a gross simplification, and that the existence of the trend doesn't necessarily have any impact on actual sales or potential sales. That there are many reasons and factors for a systems success or failure, regardless of it's value however, the statement or trend is still correct.

But yes, I don't agree with Quickrick that "only reason it failed because there simply wasn't a market for a dedicated nintendo home console". There were many much bigger reasons at play.

I do agree with him that Nintendo wouldn't have developed a unified system if they had two separate systems selling gangbusters though. After all they'd never have followed the Wii and DS with a unified product, as a single system could never do as well as the DS and Wii combined.

Thats a point, Nintendo start talking about unified platform only 2 months after Wii U launch (at that time Wii U had good launch). Nintendo was struggling with supporting two totally different platforms in same time in modern age and they couldnt folow Wii and DS with unified platform because technology wasn't there, they also talk about that, they basicly said they always had plans for something like Switch but that wasn't possible before because tehnology.



Miyamotoo said:
Barkley said:

I do agree with him that Nintendo wouldn't have developed a unified system if they had two separate systems selling gangbusters though. After all they'd never have followed the Wii and DS with a unified product, as a single system could never do as well as the DS and Wii combined.

Thats a point, Nintendo start talking about unified platform only 2 months after Wii U launch (at that time Wii U had good launch). Nintendo was struggling with supporting two totally different platforms in same time in modern age and they couldnt folow Wii and DS with unified platform because technology wasn't there, they also talk about that, they basicly said they always have plans for something like Switch but that wasn't possible before because tehnology.

Do you have a source for that? But I wouldn't say the WiiU had a good launch, 2.2m in 2012 isn't good.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

Because you used biggest Nintendo fail ever like example, there are obvious reasons why Wii U is worst selling Nintendo console, and that dont have anuthing with "down trend" with Nintendo home consoles, Wii is actualy proof of that. Wii was Nintendo home console, there is no any need to pretend like Wii didn't happen. You saying that Wii was "lighting in a bottle", than I guess Nintendo again catch "lighting in a bottle" with Switch. ;)

Also agin, Switch has higher value in any case like hybrid than like just a handheld or just a console.

i'm using the last dedicated nintendo home console as a example. wiiu actually had everything going for it, it's the successor to the best selling nintendo home console ever, it a gigantic jump graphics wise from the wii, and the gamepad was actually a cool concept. only reason it failed because there simply wasn't a market for a dedicated nintendo home console, nintendo knew this, that's why they decided to combine both markets into one, Which was the best move they could make.

ummm the gamepad, while a cool concept in theory or like as a research experiment, was a horrible market concept. The Wii U's failure has nothing to do with Nintendo not having a market for home consoles and everything to do with the fact that the Wii U gamepad was a terrible idea that nobody wanted to buy. I have bought every Nintendo home console except the Wii U because it was a terrible concept.

Everybody knows the Wii U gamepad was a terrible concept. You are reallllly reaching there trying to say the opposite in order to argue that Nintendo doesn't have a market for home consoles.

Nintendo can't straight up compete with the much larger companies Sony and Microsoft's home consoles that can afford to make much more expensive consoles and sell at a loss for a while. So starting with the Wii Nintendo went for innovation over horsepower. The thing about innovation is sometimes you just hit on a terrible idea. They hit the mark with the Wii and sold over 100 million, they totally missed the mark with Wii U and sold 13 million. Now they've hit the mark again and combined all their best ideas into the Switch - motion controls plus bringing their two markets together with a hybrid.

If you look at the last two Nintendo home consoles you can't make any conclusion on the size of their market because one sold horrible and the other sold like 8 times as much, because one was a great innovation and one was a horrible concept.



Barkley said:
Miyamotoo said:

Thats a point, Nintendo start talking about unified platform only 2 months after Wii U launch (at that time Wii U had good launch). Nintendo was struggling with supporting two totally different platforms in same time in modern age and they couldnt folow Wii and DS with unified platform because technology wasn't there, they also talk about that, they basicly said they always have plans for something like Switch but that wasn't possible before because tehnology.

Do you have a source for that? But I wouldn't say the WiiU had a good launch, 2.2m in 2012 isn't good.


Iwata, January. 2013:

"In this sense, what we should be discussing is not cloud gaming but whether dedicated gaming platforms will eventually die out and whether handheld gaming devices and home consoles will one day be unified. Naturally, our stance is that dedicated gaming platforms will not die out and we are determined to create a future where they will not. In terms of our platform integration, as I explained to you a short while ago, we are not saying that we are planning to integrate our platforms into one. What we are saying is that we would like to integrate software development methods, operating systems, and built-in software and software assets for each platform so that we can use them across different machines. This means that if we manage to integrate our platforms successfully, we may in fact be able to make more platforms. At the moment, we only have our current handheld devices and home consoles because if we tried to make more platforms, our development resources would be spread too thinly. The more we can share software across different platforms, the more development resources will be left for something else. Platform integration does not mean creating one type of platform, but the point is that the united method of software development will enable us to share our most precious software assets across different hardware. It is natural that there will be more things that battery-run devices can do thanks to technological advances and game consoles will become more powerful. However, if we try to linearly pursue this direction, software development will become so complicated that we will eventually face a situation where cost recovery becomes a serious issue. Therefore we feel that we are nearing a saturation point in terms of simply improving performance or enhancing graphics. What is far more important for the future of video games is whether we can make new propositions in other aspects and create games out of something that people never expected to see in the form of a game".

Last year we also started a project to integrate the architecture for our future platforms. What we mean by integrating platforms is not integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine. What we are aiming at is to integrate the architecture to form a common basis for software development so that we can make software assets more transferrable, and operating systems and their build-in applications more portable, regardless of form factor or performance of each platform. They will also work to avoid software lineup shortages or software development delays which tend to happen just after the launch of new hardware.
Some time ago it was technologically impossible to have the same architecture for handheld devices and home consoles and what we did was therefore reasonable. Although it has not been long since we began to integrate the architecture and this will have no short-term result, we believe that it will provide a great benefit to our platform business in the long run.

Iwata, March 2014.

"Last year Nintendo reorganized its R&D divisions and integrated the handheld device and home console development teams into one division under Mr. Takeda. Previously, our handheld video game devices and home video game consoles had to be developed separately as the technological requirements of each system, whether it was battery-powered or connected to a power supply, differed greatly, leading to completely different architectures and, hence, divergent methods of software development. However, because of vast technological advances, it became possible to achieve a fair degree of architectural integration. We discussed this point, and we ultimately concluded that it was the right time to integrate the two teams.

For example, currently it requires a huge amount of effort to port Wii software to Nintendo 3DS because not only their resolutions but also the methods of software development are entirely different. The same thing happens when we try to port Nintendo 3DS software to Wii U. If the transition of software from platform to platform can be made simpler, this will help solve the problem of game shortages in the launch periods of new platforms. Also, as technological advances took place at such a dramatic rate, and we were forced to choose the best technologies for video games under cost restrictions, each time we developed a new platform, we always ended up developing a system that was completely different from its predecessor. The only exception was when we went from Nintendo GameCube to Wii. Though the controller changed completely, the actual computer and graphics chips were developed very smoothly as they were very similar to those of Nintendo GameCube, but all the other systems required ground-up effort. However, I think that we no longer need this kind of effort under the current circumstances. In this perspective, while we are only going to be able to start this with the next system, it will become important for us to accurately take advantage of what we have done with the Wii U architecture. It of course does not mean that we are going to use exactly the same architecture as Wii U, but we are going to create a system that can absorb the Wii U architecture adequately. When this happens, home consoles and handheld devices will no longer be completely different, and they will become like brothers in a family of systems.

Still, I am not sure if the form factor (the size and configuration of the hardware) will be integrated. In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently, we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform. To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS. Another example is Android. Though there are various models, Android does not face software shortages because there is one common way of programming on the Android platform that works with various models. The point is, Nintendo platforms should be like those two examples. Whether we will ultimately need just one device will be determined by what consumers demand in the future, and that is not something we know at the moment. However, we are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future.

So Nintendo had some kind of plans for integrated platform only 2 months after Wii U launch, but offocurse they were not yet sure about for factor, number of deviaces, end product...not to mentioned that in that time they made plan to merged their handheld and home console divisions.
Wii U had very good launch, maybe even better than even Wii launch, it shipped around 3m at launch from 20. November to 31. December.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 29 March 2018

Miyamotoo said:
Barkley said:

Do you have a source for that? But I wouldn't say the WiiU had a good launch, 2.2m in 2012 isn't good.

 

-snip-

 

Wii U had very good launch, maybe even better than even Wii launch, it shipped around 3m at launch from 20. November to 31. December.

Thanks that's an interesting read, it seems back in January 2013, while they were moving towards unified software, they still planned to have two separate devices for home and portable. "What we mean by integrating platforms is not integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine."

Another interesting statement: "we are saying is that we would like to integrate software development methods, operating systems, and built-in software and software assets for each platform so that we can use them across different machines. This means that if we manage to integrate our platforms successfully, we may in fact be able to make more platforms."

It's very interesting to see that the original plan for unification was to have many systems alongside each other, rather than just the one we have at this current time.

So the change from having multiple devices may have been due to the WiiU failure, maybe not. But you're right that the unification was in motion too early to have been all a reaction to the WiiU's sales.

 

As a side note, no the WiiU did not have a "very good launch", and certainly not better than the Wii. Consoles sell a lot better at launch then they used to, compared to other modern launches the WiiU wasn't good.

ps4 - 4.4m
XBO - 3.0m
WiiU - 2.2m