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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Megiddo on 25 September 2018
globalisateur said:
Megiddo said:
I'm really confused about that Gamestop SKU. Why is there a pre-order for a PS4 pro that isn't a bundle or limited edition? I don't get it.

Because there is shortage of Pros in US currently and many people want one and Gamestop must know that.

Look at the minimum price of third party re-seller at Amazon: $525, at that price the console is ranked in the top 100. The thirst is real.

But with the Red Dead 2 bundle being the same price, isn't everyone going to cancel to order that one instead since it comes with RDR2 for free essentially?



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globalisateur on 25 September 2018
Megiddo said:
globalisateur said:

Because there is shortage of Pros in US currently and many people want one and Gamestop must know that.

Look at the minimum price of third party re-seller at Amazon: $525, at that price the console is ranked in the top 100. The thirst is real.

But with the Red Dead 2 bundle being the same price, isn't everyone going to cancel to order that one instead since it comes with RDR2 for free essentially?

Yes some will cancel their order, but some may still want the console now to play Spider-Man.



jason1637 on 25 September 2018
sacpinkman said:

but this year it going to be RDR2, it is already selling well over COD in Amazon as of now.

I am sure this year RDR2 will be the best selling game.

It won't. Maybe second or third.



Symbios63 on 26 September 2018

09/26/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 5 (-4) - 399.99$ - October 26th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 9 (-4) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (-1) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (-3) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 30 (-4) - 399.99$ - November 16th
6 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (+3) - 299.00$
7 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 44 (-5) - 399.99$ - November 16th
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 56 (+3) - 282.88$
9 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 100 (-10) - 541.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 102 + 1 = 103 points (-16) ; XBO : 45 points (+3) ; NS : 115 + 70 = 185 points (+1)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 23 (-) - 299.99$
2 (N) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 24 (N) - 399.99$ - October 26th
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 26 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 38 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 43 (-) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 46 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 52 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 60 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 75 (-) - 399.99$ - November 16th
10 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 95 (-) - 499.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 106 points (-) ; XBO : 60 + 49 + 41 + 6 = 156 points (-) ; NS : 100 + 76 = 176 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 7 (-2) - 399.99$ - November 16th
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 7 (-4) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 12 (+5) - 399.99$ - October 26th
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 23 (-5) - 299.99$
6 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 37 (-2) - Sold out
7 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 38 (-2) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
8 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 39 (-2) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (+1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 40 (-2) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 87 (-3) - 299.99$
11 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 126 (-37) - 299.99$
12 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 171 (-29) - 499.99$ - October
13 (-) - XBox One X Scorpio - 172 (-47) - 499.99$
14 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 185 (-4) - 299.99$
15 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 199 (R) - 499.99$ - October

Out of Top 100 :

3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black 2 - 6 (+5) - 399.99$ - October 12th

PS4 : 64 points (-4) ; XBO : 15 points (-21) ; NS : 155 + 38 + 8 = 201 points (-41)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 384.2 points (-41.4) ; Month Average : 336.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 167.6 points (-16.8) ; Month Average : 329.6 points/day ; 0.98
3 - XBO : 106.9 points (-28.6) ; Month Average : 236.2 points/day ; 0.70

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 345.2 points (-16.8) ; Month Average : 507.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 384.2 points (-41.4) ; Month Average : 336.4 points/day ; 0.66 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 146.1 points (-28.6) ; Month Average : 275.4 points/day ; 0.54 (-0.01)



MasonADC on 26 September 2018

wacky month



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chakkra on 26 September 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
chakkra said:

I don't think there was ever any doubt about that.  I'm more curious to see if the X1 will finally be able to beat the Switch.

Why would anyone expect XBO to beat Switch in September tho?

There are really no reason to expect that, Switch sold 25% more in August when XBO had a massive Xbox one X promotion, September won't have that deal, and even with that why would September be different than August?

 

I could see MAYBE October because of Red dead redemption 2 and Black Ops IIII, but eh i don't know, Switch will have Mario Party 10 and some days of the new Fornite bundle...

The Tool had been showing the X1 over the Switch for days, hence my comment.  But I guess that´s not the case anymore.

But there is one thing pretty much everybody seem to have forgotten, and that is the Xbox All Access.  As far as I´m concerned it is been sold only throught MS Stores, am I wrong?

If that´s the case then we won´t know its impact until NPD.

And about October.. well, I think people are criminally underestimating the power of the FH4+Gamepass combo.



Shaqazooloo0 on 27 September 2018

This has been a really weird month lol



Symbios63 on 27 September 2018

09/27/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 9 (-4) - 399.99$ - October 26th
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros Ultimate Bundle - 16 (-7) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 20 (-) - 299.00$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 29 (-4) - 299.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 38 (-8) - 399.99$ - November 16th
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 41 (-) - 299.00$
7 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 51 (-7) - 399.99$ - November 16th
8 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 66 (-10) - 282.88$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 100 (-10) - 541.00$

PS4 : 94 points (-9) ; XBO : 35 points (-10) ; NS : 115 + 70 = 185 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (+2) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (+1) - 299.99$
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 29 (+14) - 359.99$ - November 2nd
4 (-2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 32 (-8) - 399.99$ - October 26th
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 42 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 50 (-4) - 299.99$
7 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 57 (-5) - 499.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 61 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

9 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 75 (-) - 399.99$ - November 16th
10 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 95 (-) - 499.99$

PS4 : 110 points (+4) ; XBO : 52 + 44 + 40 = 136 points (-20) ; NS : 102 + 68 = 170 points (-6)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$ - November 2nd
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 9 (+3) - 399.99$ - October 26th
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 13 (-6) - 399.99$ - November 16th
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 14 (-5) - 399.99$ - November 16th
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 27 (-4) - 299.99$
6 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 34 (R) - 399.99$
7 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2 TB 500 Million - 44 (-7) - Sold out
8 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 46 (-8) - 734.99$ (Out of Stock)
9 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 47 (-8) - 599.99$ (Out of Stock)
10 (-1) - PS4 Pro 2TB 500 Million - 48 (-8) - 499.99$ (Out of Stock)
11 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 83 (+4) - 299.99$
12 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 116 (+10) - 299.99$
13 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 143 (+56) - 499.99$ - October 15th
14 (-1) - XBox One X Scorpio - 146 (+26) - 499.99$
15 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 165 (+20) - 299.99$
16 (-4) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 - 173 (-2) - 499.99$ - October 15th

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 130 + 68 = 198 points (+134) ; XBO : 28 points (+13) ; NS : 145 + 43 + 18 = 206 points (+5)

Overall (without preorders) :

1 - NS : 388.0 points (+3.8) ; Month Average : 338.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - PS4 : 295.2 points (+127.6) ; Month Average : 328.2 points/day ; 0.97 (-0.01)
3 - XBO : 108.2 points (+1.3) ; Month Average : 231.3 points/day ; 0.68 (-0.02)

Overall (with preorders from last month) :

1 - PS4 : 472.8 points (+127.6) ; Month Average : 505.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - NS : 388.0 points (+3.8) ; Month Average : 338.4 points/day ; 0.67 (+0.01)
3 - XBO : 147.4 points (+1.3) ; Month Average : 270.5 points/day ; 0.53 (-0.01)



The_Liquid_Laser on 27 September 2018

I feel like all of these pre-order bundles are throwing everything off. Neither the Smash Bros bundle, the Pokemon bundle or the RDR2 bundle will be reflected in actual September sales. This is probably overrepresenting the Switch the most since it has the most pre-order bundles.



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My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Nuvendil on 27 September 2018
The_Liquid_Laser said:
I feel like all of these pre-order bundles are throwing everything off. Neither the Smash Bros bundle, the Pokemon bundle or the RDR2 bundle will be reflected in actual September sales. This is probably overrepresenting the Switch the most since it has the most pre-order bundles.

Those are not tracked in the chart.  They will be added in their relevant months.