In progress NPD predicting tool

PortisheadBiscuit

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PortisheadBiscuit on 27 March 2018

RaptorChrist said:
You are clearly putting a lot of your time into gathering this data. Not to be a downer, but I don't think this is very useful information; at least not in it's current state.

You had to have noticed that Gamestop is weighting PS4 at 250+ points, and giving 0 to Switch). Zygote pointed this out a few pages back. I apologize as I didn't read the whole thread, so maybe this was discussed and I haven't gotten to it yet.

This is kind of beta/prototype at the moment, I'm sure as time goes on the accuracy will improve.

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Madword on 27 March 2018

Great idea and gives a better view perhaps of whats going on, might need a bit of tinkering based on results, but good job.

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jason1637 on 27 March 2018

Would be interesting if the XBO ends up winning the month but it won't be much of a surprise because of the Spring sale and the release of Sea of Thieves.

quickrick

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quickrick on 27 March 2018

jason1637 said:
Would be interesting if the XBO ends up winning the month but it won't be much of a surprise because of the Spring sale and the release of Sea of Thieves.

i would be shocked if ps4 didn't take this month.

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Symbios63 on 28 March 2018

RaptorChrist said:
You are clearly putting a lot of your time into gathering this data. Not to be a downer, but I don't think this is very useful information; at least not in it's current state.

You had to have noticed that Gamestop is weighting PS4 at 250+ points, and giving 0 to Switch). Zygote pointed this out a few pages back. I apologize as I didn't read the whole thread, so maybe this was discussed and I haven't gotten to it yet.

It was discussed in the OP lol, and further in the thread as well.

I don't expect this month numbers to be accurate at all. The idea is to use NPD results each month to try adjust the formula (weighting retailers, twisting point system...etc) to predict the month after more accurately.

Right now, I am only displaying raw data (I already made a small twist to gamestop list, using top 200 instead of top 100 to include switch).

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Symbios63 on 28 March 2018

24 hours from last update :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 18 (-1) - 299.00$ - In stock
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 25 (+2) - 299.00$ - In stock
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 30 (-4) - 299.00$ - In stock
4 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Sea of Thieves - 40 (+2) - 249.00$ - In stock
5 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 67 (-11) - Third Party Sellers Only
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 71 (+9) - 249.00$ - In stock
7 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 78 (+9) - 498.00$ - In Stock
8 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 87 (-4) - 399.00$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 76 + 14 = 90 points (-2) ; XBO : 61 + 30 +23 = 114 points (+20) ; NS : 83 + 71 = 154 points (-5) ; Snes C : 34 points (-11)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-9) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (+7) - XBox One S 1 Tb Starter Bundle - 24 (+50) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
3 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 28 (-25) - 299.99$ - In Stock
4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 29 (-19) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
5 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 31 (-19) - 499.99$ - In Stock
6 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 39 (-25) - 399.00$ - In Stock
7 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 60 (R) - 399.99$ - Preorder
8 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 64 (-48) - 299.00$ - In Stock
9 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Madden - 72 (R) - 229.99$ - In Stock
10 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 82 (-65) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
11 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb Star Wars - 86 (-14) - 399.00$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 73 + 62 + 15 = 150 points (-64) ; XBO : 77 + 72 + 70 + 29 + 19 = 267 points (-24) ; NS : 90 + 37 = 127 points (-57) ; 3DS : 0 points (-) ; SnesC : 0 points (-) ; PS4 (April) : 41 points (+41)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 8 (+4) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 41 (+13) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 66 (+16) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (+2) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 76 (+64) - 229.99$ - In Stock
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 95 (+2) - 299.00$ - In Stock
6 (-2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 113 (-28) - 499.99$ - In Stock
7 (-) - Nintendo NEW 3DS XL - Samus Edition - 117 (+37) - 174.99$ - In Stock
8 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 131 (R) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 150 (R) - 399.99$ - In Stock
10 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 156 (+44) - 359.99$ - In Stock
11 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart Bundle - 175 (R) - 359.99$ - In Stock
12 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Forza Horizon - 176 (R) - 229.99$ - In Stock
13 (R) - Playstation 4 500Gb - CoD IW - 184 (R) - 299.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 80 + 68 + 26 + 9 = 183 points (+49) ; XBO : 63 + 45 + 36 + 13 = 157 points (+68) ; NS : 54 + 23 + 14 = 91 points (+37) ; 3DS : 43 points (+19) ; PS4 (April) : 97 points (+2)

- Walmart :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (-5) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (+1) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 21 (-4) - 294.75$ - In Stock
4 (R) - Nintendo New 3DS XL Galaxy - 25 (R) - 199.96$ - In Stock
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 26 (-2) - 299.00$ - In Stock
6 (-1) - XBox One S 500Gb - 32 (-3) - 247.70$ (-1.19) - Third Party Seller
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 33 (-3) - 269.00$ - In Stock
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 34 (-3) - 499.99$ - In Stock
9 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 35 (-3) - 399.00$ - In Stock
10 (-1) - XBox One S 500Gb Hotwheels/Forza Bundle - 36 (-3) - 229.00$ - In Stock
11 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 40 (-3) - 249.00$ - In Stock
12 (R) - Xbox One S 500GB Forza / Hot Wheels Bundle - 43 (R) - 229.00$ - In Stock
13 (R) - Nintendo New 3DS XL Black - 44 (R) - 187.62$ - In Stock
14 (-3) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 45 (-2) - 79.95$ - In Stock
15 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 55 (-) - 399.96$ - Preorder
16 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 58 (-1) - 299.00$ - In Stock
17 (-3) - Super Nes Classic - 65 (-6) - Third Party Seller
18 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 73 (R) - 249.99$ - In Stock
19 (R) - Super Nes Classic - 84 (R) - Third Party Seller

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 68 + 66 = 225 points (+7) ; XBO : 80 + 69 + 67 + 65 + 61 + 58 + 43 + 28 = 471 points (+69) ; NS : 89 + 75 = 164 points (-7) ; Snes C : 36 + 17 = 53 points (+11) ; 3DS : 76 + 57 + 56 = 189 points (+131) ; PS4 (April) : 46 points (-)

Target :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 8 (-1)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 15 (-)
5 (+1) - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 38 (+1)
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 44 (-7)
7 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 48 (-6)
8 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 49 (+3)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 56 (-1)
10 (-) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 79 (-4)
11 (-) - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 99 (-5)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 86 + 52 + 45 = 183 points (+2) ; XBO : 63 + 57 + 53 = 173 points (-12) ; NS : 98 + 92 = 190 points (-) ; Snes C : 93 points (-1) ; 3DS : 22 + 2 = 24 points (-9)

Overall :

1 (-) - XBO : 1182 points (+121)
2 (-) - PS4 : 831 points (-15)
3 (-) - NS : 726 points (-32)
4 (+1) - 3DS : 256 points (+141)
5 (-1) - Snes C : 180 points (-1)

PS4 (April) : 184 (+43)

Symbios63

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Symbios63 on 29 March 2018

29 hours from last update :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 14 (+4) - 299.00$ - In stock
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 24 (+1) - 299.00$ - In stock March 31
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 27 (+3) - 299.00$ - In stock
4 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Sea of Thieves - 41 (-1) - 249.00$ - In stock
5 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 63 (+8) - 249.00$ - In stock
6 (-1) - Super Nes Classic - 65 (+2) - Third Party Sellers Only
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 73 (+14) - 399.00$ - In Stock
8 (-1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 77 (+1) - 498.00$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 77 + 28 = 105 points (+15) ; XBO : 60 + 38 +24 = 122 points (+8) ; NS : 87 + 74 = 161 points (+7) ; Snes C : 36 points (+2)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+2) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 10 (+18) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 21 (+18) - 399.00$ - In Stock
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 22 (+9) - 499.99$ - In Stock
5 (-3) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 24 (+5) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
6 (+4) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 35 (+57) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
7 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+28) - 299.00$ - In Stock
8 (-) - XBox One S 1 Tb Starter Bundle - 94 (-) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

7 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 60 (R) - 399.99$ - Preorder
9 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Madden - 72 (R) - 229.99$ - In Stock
11 (-3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb Star Wars - 86 (-14) - 399.00$ - In Stock

PS4 : 91 + 80 = 171 points (+21) ; XBO : 79 + 77 + 66 + 7 = 229 points (-38) ; NS : 92 + 65 = 157 points (+30) ; 3DS : 0 points (-) ; SnesC : 0 points (-) ; PS4 (April) : 0 points (-41)

- Gamestop :

1 (R) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (R) - Out of Stock
1 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 9 (-1) - 399.99$ - Preorder
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 58 (-17) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 59 (+7) - 399.99$ - In Stock
4 (+2) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 67 (+46) - 499.99$ - In Stock
5 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 106 (+25) - 249.99$ (-50.00) - In Stock
6 (+2) - XBox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 112 (-36) - 229.99$ - In Stock
7 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 132 (+24) - 359.99$ - In Stock
8 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart Bundle - 149 (+26) - 359.99$ - In Stock
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 155 (-5) - 399.99$ - In Stock
10 (-5) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 158 (-63) - 299.00$ - In Stock
11 (R) - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Kart Bundle - 179 (R) - 359.99$ - In Stock
12 (-5) - Nintendo NEW 3DS XL - Samus Edition - 199 (-82) - 174.99$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

12 (R) - XBox One S 500Gb Forza Horizon - 176 (R) - 229.99$ - In Stock
13 (R) - Playstation 4 500Gb - CoD IW - 184 (R) - 299.99$ - In Stock

PS4 : 72 + 71 + 23 = 166 points (-17) ; XBO : 67 + 48 + 45 = 160 points (+3) ; NS : 35 + 26 + 22 + 11 = 94 points (+3) ; 3DS : 1 points (-18) ; PS4 (April) : 96 points (-1) ; SnesC : 100 points (+100)

- Walmart :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (+5) - 299.00$ - In Stock
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 17 (-2) - 299.99$ - In Stock
3 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 23 (+3) - 299.00$ - In Stock
4 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 500Gb Black - 29 (+4) - 269.00$ - In Stock
5 (+3) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 30 (+4) - 499.99$ - In Stock
6 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 31 (+9) - 249.00$ - In Stock
7 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 32 (+3) - 399.00$ - In Stock
8 (+2) - XBox One S 500Gb Hotwheels/Forza Bundle - 33 (+3) - 229.00$ - In Stock
9 (R) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb Star Wars - 36 (R) - 399.00$ - In Stock
10 (+2) - Xbox One S 500GB Forza / Hot Wheels Bundle - 41 (+2) - 229.00$ - In Stock
11 (+4) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 51 (+4) - 399.96$ - Preorder
12 (+4) - XBox One S 1Tb Rocket League - 54 (+4) - 299.00$ - In Stock
13 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves - 56 (+17) - 249.99$ - In Stock
14 (+3) - Super Nes Classic - 81 (-16) - Third Party Seller

Out of Top 100 :

3 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft - 21 (-4) - 294.75$ - In Stock
4 (R) - Nintendo New 3DS XL Galaxy - 25 (R) - 199.96$ - In Stock
6 (-1) - XBox One S 500Gb - 32 (-3) - 247.70$ (-1.19) - Third Party Seller
13 (R) - Nintendo New 3DS XL Black - 44 (R) - 187.62$ - In Stock
14 (-3) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 45 (-2) - 79.95$ - In Stock
19 (R) - Super Nes Classic - 84 (R) - Third Party Seller

PS4 : 84 + 72 + 69 + 65 = 290 points (+65) ; XBO : 71 + 70 + 68 + 60 + 47 + 45 = 361 points (-110) ; NS : 94 + 78 = 172 points (+8) ; Snes C : 20 points (-33) ; 3DS : 0 points (-131) ; PS4 (April) : 50 points (+4)

Target :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 8 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 9 (-)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 16 (-1)
5 (-) - Xbox One S 500Gb Minecraft - 39 (-1)
6 (-) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 44 (-)
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 49 (-)
8 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Playerunknown's Battlegrounds - 52 (-4)
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 56 (-)
10 (-) - Nintendo 2DS Mario Kart 7 - 82 (-3)
11 (-) - New Nintendo 2DS XL Black & Turquoise - 100 (-1)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 85 + 52 + 45 = 182 points (-1) ; XBO : 62 + 57 + 49 = 168 points (-5) ; NS : 98 + 92 = 190 points (-) ; Snes C : 93 points (-) ; 3DS : 19 + 1 = 20 points (-4)

Overall :

1 (-) - XBO : 1040 points (-142)
2 (-) - PS4 : 914 points (+83)
3 (-) - NS : 774 points (+48)
4 (+1) - Snes C : 249 points (+69)
5 (-1) - 3DS : 21 points (-235)

PS4 (April) : 146 (-38)

jason1637

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jason1637 on 29 March 2018

Looks like the Sea of Thieves bump is starting to lose effect.

gtjay1982

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gtjay1982 on 29 March 2018

More like the usual price cut bump losing effect. Wonder why they don't just make the price permanent

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jason1637 on 30 March 2018

gtjay1982 said:
More like the usual price cut bump losing effect. Wonder why they don't just make the price permanent

The price cut is still in effect for their springs sale.

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