In progress NPD predicting tool

abronn627

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abronn627 on 24 November 2018

MasonADC said:

quickrick said:

Will after October the tool has proved that it's kinda useless imo but since you guys enjoy it, and he enjoys doing the work then yea I won't be posting here no more after this post.

1 month wrong doesn't make the tool useless, but see ya anyways

Just ignore him. He won’t contribute to the conversation so don’t invite him in it.

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JSG87 on 24 November 2018

I'm actually amazed at how accurate it's been. All that needs to be done is a tweak for the holidays that is only used during the holidays and it will be fine.

Kerotan

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Kerotan on 24 November 2018

quickrick said:

Shaqazooloo0 said:
So, I feel like I got to ask... did something happen between this time last year to now for Benji? Like does he have better data or sources now or something?

He's the guy that ended up being wrong last year and became conservative with what he shares right? Why is he making definitive claims now?

Yea I don't get it, last year ps4 beat switch by 900k and he wasn't sure ps4 would so clearly his data is missing huge chunk of valuable info.

I'm not what the obsession with making a prediction tool just wait for npd and save your time because there will never be a reliable tool imho.

quickrick said:

Mbolibombo said:

If you arent interested, then just stay away from the discussion. It's not hard, and that would most certainly save us all time.

Will after October the tool has proved that it's kinda useless imo but since you guys enjoy it, and he enjoys doing the work then yea I won't be posting here no more after this post.

Welcome back! Release the mob!

abronn627 said:

MasonADC said:

1 month wrong doesn't make the tool useless, but see ya anyways

Just ignore him. He won’t contribute to the conversation so don’t invite him in it.

Well I've been saying this for months the large group of people who don't like quickrick should just not quote him but they can never resist.

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Symbios63 on 24 November 2018

11/24/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 3 (-2) - TP
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (-) - 199.00$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-2) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 26 (-3) - 399.99$
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 39 (+4) - 299.00$
6 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 43 (-1) - 229.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 47 (-1) - TP
8 (+2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 65 (+2) - 229.00$
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 73 (-8) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (N) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 64 (N)

PS4 : 58 + 28 = 86 points (-47) ; XBO : 195 + 100 + 66 + 36 = 397 point (-6) ; NS : 200 + 150 + 74 = 424 points (-12)

- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 1 (-) - 299.99$
2 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 2 (+2) - 199.99$
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 18 (+13) - 399.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 21 (+9) - 229.99$
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 24 (+15) - 299.99$
6 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 25 (+39) - 299.99$
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 31 (+1) - 429.99$
8 (-6) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 48 (-46) - 199.99$
9 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 60 (R) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 75 (+4) - 229.99$
11 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb - 83 (-21) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 125 + 104 + 56 = 285 points (-84) ; XBO : 205 + 110 + 90 + 26 + 18 = 449 points (+13) ; NS : 210 + 102 + 41 = 353 points (+106)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 11 (-2)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 15 (+1)
4 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 19 (-2)
5 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 21 (+2)
6 (-3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 23 (-8)
7 (+3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 33 (+15)
8 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 41 (-4)
9 (-1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 45 (-5)
10 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 46 (-4)
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 77 (-11)
12 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 89 (+5)
13 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 96 (-14)
14 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 100 (-19)
15 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 123 (-20)
16 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 132 (-25)
17 (+4) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 140 (+45)
18 (-1) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 142 (-22)
19 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 152 (-27)
20 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 173 (-37)
21 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 176 (-50)

Out of Top 100 :

22 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 188 (-101)

PS4 : 160 + 155 + 130 + 62 + 31 = 538 points (+31) ; XBO : 165 + 106 + 106 + 74 + 56 + 52 + 39 + 35 + 30 + 25 + 14 = 702 points (-127) ; NS : 205 + 185 + 175 + 110 + 13 = 688 points (-40)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1509.9 points (-28.4) ; Month Average : 1364.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1490.8 points (-168.0) ; Month Average : 630.6 points/day ; 0.46 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 663.8 points (-23.4) ; Month Average : 444.4 points/day ; 0.33 (+0.01)

duduspace1

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duduspace1 on 24 November 2018

Kerotan said:

quickrick said:

Yea I don't get it, last year ps4 beat switch by 900k and he wasn't sure ps4 would so clearly his data is missing huge chunk of valuable info.

I'm not what the obsession with making a prediction tool just wait for npd and save your time because there will never be a reliable tool imho.

quickrick said:

Will after October the tool has proved that it's kinda useless imo but since you guys enjoy it, and he enjoys doing the work then yea I won't be posting here no more after this post.

Welcome back! Release the mob!

abronn627 said:

Just ignore him. He won’t contribute to the conversation so don’t invite him in it.

Well I've been saying this for months the large group of people who don't like quickrick should just not quote him but they can never resist.

But of course, you can advise the "mob" while you have no advice for Quickrick himself right ?

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Madword on 24 November 2018

This topic and the amazon one is all about prediction, its pretty silly to be saying why we care about the tool. Its' fun and it's interesting, its a discussion point about how things are going....

The tool is great and the work that is done on it is superb.

Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

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PortisheadBiscuit on 24 November 2018

Madword said:
This topic and the amazon one is all about prediction, its pretty silly to be saying why we care about the tool. Its' fun and it's interesting, its a discussion point about how things are going....

The tool is great and the work that is done on it is superb.

I agree, some people just take the console allegiance thing way too seriously.

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Kai_Mao on 24 November 2018

Madword said:
This topic and the amazon one is all about prediction, its pretty silly to be saying why we care about the tool. Its' fun and it's interesting, its a discussion point about how things are going....

The tool is great and the work that is done on it is superb.

Yea, ultimately, it’s great if all three console makers and third party developers are doing well. Predictions add to discussions on where sales could go and what could potentially transpire due to these sales. So what if one month is wrong? There’s always room for improvement, especially during time of the holidays. Nothing’s perfect, especially predictions.

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Symbios63 on 25 November 2018

11/25/18 :

- Amazon :

1 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (+1) - 199.00$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 5 (-2) - TP
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 9 (+4) - 299.00$
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 30 (-4) - 399.99$
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+3) - 299.00$
6 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 50 (-7) - 229.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 55 (-8) - TP
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 67 (-2) - 229.00$
9 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 74 (-1) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 46 + 27 = 73 points (-13) ; XBO : 200 + 92 + 52 + 34 = 378 point (-19) ; NS : 190 + 170 + 80 = 440 points (+16)

- Best Buy :

1 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (-1) - 199.99$
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle - 7 (-6) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 11 (+7) - 399.99$
4 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 15 (+10) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 19 (+2) - 229.99$
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 28 (+3) - 429.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 32 (-8) - 299.99$
8 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 54 (+6) - 299.99$
9 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb - 57 (+26) - 399.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 81 (-6) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

8 (-6) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 48 (-46) - 199.99$

PS4 : 160 + 88 = 248 points (-37) ; XBO : 200 + 120 + 96 + 44 + 20 = 480 points (+31) ; NS : 180 + 140 + 47 = 367 points (+14)

- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon + GC - 3 (-)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Grey + GC - 13 (+2)
3 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle + GC - 18 (+3)
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 19 (-)
5 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb + GC - 23 (+10)
6 (+2) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC + GC - 35 (+6)
7 (+3) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle + GC - 37 (+9)
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 + GC - 39 (+6)
9 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb + GC - 71 (+6)
10 (+2) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb + GC - 74 (+15)
11 (+2) - XBox One S 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 85 (+11)
12 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 + GC - 90 (+10)
13 (+4) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 113 (+27)
14 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves P Bundle + GC - 124 (-1)
15 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves D Bundle + GC - 126 (+6)
16 (+2) - XBox One X NBA 2K19 + GC - 133 (+9)
17 (+2) - XBox One X 1Tb PUGB Bundle + GC - 139 (+13)
18 (-16) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + GC - 159 (-148)
19 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 Bundle + GC - 160 (+13)

Out of Top 100 :

6 (-3) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 23 (-8)
21 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 176 (-50)

PS4 : 170 + 155 + 78 + 44 = 447 points (-91) ; XBO : 165 + 120 + 115 + 80 + 66 + 64 + 39 + 38 + 34 + 31 + 21 = 770 points (+68) ; NS : 205 + 180 + 125 + 21 = 531 points (-157)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1368.5 points (-141.4) ; Month Average : 1365.0 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1567.5 points (+76.7) ; Month Average : 671.3 points/day ; 0.49 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 555.0 points (-108.8) ; Month Average : 449.2 points/day ; 0.33 (-)

duduspace1

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duduspace1 on 25 November 2018

If the tool were to get November right calling it correctly for the Switch, then it would mean basically that some of the bundles accounted for by the tool for last month were accounted for in a different month by NPD since both the Switch and the PS4 are widely reported to have done well during BF with a seeming slight edge for the PS4.
I retain a slight hope that the Switch might get a surprise victory this month.

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