By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Barkley on 20 November 2018
TheBlackNaruto said:
My thoughts for this time of year are this. B&M sales shoot up EXPONENTIALLY so it throws the tool off that doesn't take this into account. And that is okay.....the tool is amazing and takes a LOT of work and I truly appreciate the time and effort that goes into this! Very good and accurate tool for the other months but around the Holidays when the B&M sales go up it throws everything into disarray. I don't even think anything even needs to be tweaked really. I think it is fine as is.

I think rather than it just being B&M sales going up, it's more to do with the volume of sales going up and insane deals causing the variation in sales between ranks being much higher. The difference between #1 and #2 has the potential to be a lot larger of a difference than most times of the year. Online sales for Black Friday are getting closer to instore with each passing year.



Around the Network
Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yes they will, but they cant have bigger effect on hardware sales than they will this year. PS4 will have very good next year also, but its expeted that will after 2017. and 2018. will start selling less, because Sony clearly start focusing on PS5 and next year we will probably have PS4 reveal.

Eh i don't think Sony are clearly focusing on PS5 next year. Completely disagree. I think PS5 is 2020. The market that will buy a PS4 at $199 is not the market that buys the PS5. And most PS5 games will be cross gen including GTA Vi most likely. As always people will underestimate the PS4 sales in 2019 and 2020. Not too bothered arguing why anymore I'll just sit back and enjoy the results. 

They clearly do, if that's not case they would have E3 next year. PS5 is 2020. but could easily be March of 2020. launch not November of 2020. Point is that new console effecting on sales of older console in any case, thats a fact. Nothing wrong in expecting that PS4 sales in 2019. and 2020. will be weaker than they were in 2017. and 2020. its very logical assumption.



Kerotan on 20 November 2018
Miyamotoo said:
Kerotan said:

Eh i don't think Sony are clearly focusing on PS5 next year. Completely disagree. I think PS5 is 2020. The market that will buy a PS4 at $199 is not the market that buys the PS5. And most PS5 games will be cross gen including GTA Vi most likely. As always people will underestimate the PS4 sales in 2019 and 2020. Not too bothered arguing why anymore I'll just sit back and enjoy the results. 

They clearly do, if that's not case they would have E3 next year. PS5 is 2020. but could easily be March of 2020. launch not November of 2020. Point is that new console effecting on sales of older console in any case, thats a fact. Nothing wrong in expecting that PS4 sales in 2019. and 2020. will be weaker than they were in 2017. and 2020. its very logical assumption.

But they don't have to match 2017. They could be 2 or 3m down and it would be still massive sales and up on that plateau. And yes ps5 announcement can affect ps4 but that can be countered when the product you are selling has an MMRP of 299 with the ability to go to 199 or lower. Again if Sony wants sales to stay super high for ps4 they have the tools to do it. 90% of ps5 games will run on ps4 anyway so the ps4, particularly the pro will still sell very well. 



Miyamotoo on 20 November 2018
Kerotan said:
Miyamotoo said:

They clearly do, if that's not case they would have E3 next year. PS5 is 2020. but could easily be March of 2020. launch not November of 2020. Point is that new console effecting on sales of older console in any case, thats a fact. Nothing wrong in expecting that PS4 sales in 2019. and 2020. will be weaker than they were in 2017. and 2020. its very logical assumption.

But they don't have to match 2017. They could be 2 or 3m down and it would be still massive sales and up on that plateau. And yes ps5 announcement can affect ps4 but that can be countered when the product you are selling has an MMRP of 299 with the ability to go to 199 or lower. Again if Sony wants sales to stay super high for ps4 they have the tools to do it. 90% of ps5 games will run on ps4 anyway so the ps4, particularly the pro will still sell very well. 

Are you moving goal post or you dont realise why I made reply to you first place? Look at your post down on wich I first made reply, my point is simple that 2017. or 2018. will be peak of PS4 sales, not 2019. or 2020.

 

Kerotan said:
MasonADC said:

I mean it is past its peak, WW atleast 

At 299 maybe but at 199 sold for an entire year ABSOLUTELY not. 


duduspace1 on 20 November 2018

Good run from the tool so far, first major wobble really. Only reasons I can think of is the effect of pre-order bundles and when they are actually accounted for as well as products selling so well they go out of stock but are available in other places or in B&M. This result asides, this has been a very good tracker and I see no reason why it won't continue to be. Perhaps some of those Nintendo bundles will go into November figures.



Around the Network
Symbios63 on 21 November 2018

11/21/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 5 (+5) - ?
2 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 7 (-) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb - 22 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 29 (-12) - TP
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 35 (-) - 299.00$
6 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 53 (+8) - 229.99$
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 58 (+2) - 299.99$
8 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 83 (-4) - 229.00$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 94 + 43 = 137 points (-34) ; XBO : 190 + 108 + 48 + 18 = 364 point (+33) ; NS : 180 + 82 = 262 points (-)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (-) - 199.99$
2 (N) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 4 (N) - 199.99$
3 (+5) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 9 (+24) - 229.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 11 (-3) - 299.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 15 (-6) - 399.99$
6 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb - 22 (R) - 399.99$
7 (N) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle 2 - 27 (N) - 399.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 57 (-15) - 229.99$
9 (+3) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 89 (+8) - 429.99$
10 (R) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 93 (R) - 229.99$

Out of Top 100 :

2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 5 (+17) - SO
5 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 13 (+15) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 15 (+19) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 21 (+12) - 299.99$
10 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 63 (R) - 429.99$
11 (R) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 77 (R) - SO

PS4 : 210 + 140 + 98 = 448 points (-42) ; XBO : 195 + 170 + 108 + 44 + 12 + 8 = 537 points (+317) ; NS : 160 points (-495)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb Spiderman Bundle - 1 (-)
2 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Minecraft Bundle - 3 (+1)
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 40 (+5)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 50 (+1)
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Battlefield 5 Bundle - 61 (-4)
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 65 (-1)
7 (-) - XBox One 1Tb The Dvision Bundle - 77 (-10)
8 (+1) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 83 (+25)
9 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 114 (-10)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 129 (+4)
11 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb CoD: BO4 Bundle - 140 (+34)
12 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb - 143 (+11)
13 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 182 (-9)

Out of Top 100 :

14 (N) - Nintendo Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle + Gift Card - 194 (N)

PS4 : 210 + 115 + 31 + 29 + 10 = 395 points (+27) ; XBO : 205 + 90 + 74 + 68 + 44 = 481 points (+2) ; NS : 102 + 86 + 36 = 224 points (-2)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 877.7 points (-101.0) ; Month Average : 1333.8 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1192.1 points (+119.3) ; Month Average : 456.5 points/day ; 0.34 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 594.2 points (-8.6) ; Month Average : 403.8 points/day ; 0.30 (+0.01)



PortisheadBiscuit on 21 November 2018

Xbox not doing too shabby now that PS4 is out of stock everywhere. Should be a great month for all 3



globalisateur on 21 November 2018
Symbios63 said:

The idea of this thread is to use the online best selling list of main US retailers to try and build a formula allowing us to predict the outcome of incoming NPD.

 

After a few month, here is what we do :

- The retailers tracked are :  - Amazon, - Best Buy, - Gamestop

- The basic idea is to allocate points to hardware depending on their ranking on the 3 retailers online best selling list : Rank 1 = 210 points, Rank 2 = 205 points, ... , Rank 21 = 110 points, Rank 22 = 108 points, ... , Rank 51 = 50 points, Rank 52 = 49 points, ... , Rank 100 = 1 point. The amount of points for each rank has been determined empirically over a few month.

- Retailers are weighted in the formula as follow : Overall points = Gamestop x 1 + Best Buy x 0.2 + Amazon x 0.8. Again, this was determined empirically.

- Concerning Gamestop, we look at Top 200 instead of Top 100 because the amount of figurines and T-shirt can make it difficult to find hardwares in the top 100. However, if an item is ranked 124, we consider it to be ranked 62. If it is ranked 10, we consider it to be ranked 5 etc... Then the point system applies normally.

 

After the last NPD I think we need to change the methodology, like :

- Put way more weight in the first rankings. Rank 1 should get more way more points. All those Xbox bundles were a problem this month.

- Finally reduce the Amazon weight. It's time (I already talked about that previously). We should weight the retailers using their actual known sales.

If you have time you should try to modify those variables and retrospectively apply them for october until you get the actual results... or at least the correct ranking !



Farsala on 21 November 2018

I think methodology should be different for Jan-October and November + December. Holidays are simply a different ball game to normal months.



PortisheadBiscuit on 21 November 2018

PS4 should automatically get a 1000 point bonus this month, just because we KNOW it sold bonkers this week at retail lol