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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

Nuvendil on 12 November 2018
Mar1217 said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Yeah definitely looks like PS4 and XB1 shoppers holding out for Black Friday

I also think, Microsoft might have blown their chances already with that RDR2 "bundle" at the end of October.

nah they'll get good numbers on black Friday.  But that kind of behavior is why whenever Xbone goes up to MSRP, sales plummet so hard.  Why buy at MSRP a product that is on some kind of fire sale every month or so?



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Symbios63 on 12 November 2018

11/12/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (+2) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 36 (+2) - 299.00$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 37 (+2) - 399.99$
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 77 (-14) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 78 + 24 = 102 points (-10) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 150 + 80 = 230 points (+14)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-) - 359.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 6 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 7 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 20 (-) - 499.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (-) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 55 (-1) - 499.99$
12 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 57 (-) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 71 (-) - 499.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 90 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 200 + 145 = 550 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 115 + 102 + 46 + 44 + 30 = 522 points (-1) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 180 + 130 + 11 = 721 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (-)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 9 (-)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 13 (+2)
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 28 (-6)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 35 (-7)
6 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 77 (+25)
7 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 94 (-26)
8 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 141 (+13)
9 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 151 (-2)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 195 (-12)

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 58 + 30 = 88 points (-20) ; XBO : 74 points (+24) ; NS : 205 + 190 + 180 + 145 + 125 + 25 + 3 = 873 points (-37)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1613.3 points (-25.8) ; Month Average : 1423.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 280.5 points (+30.9) ; Month Average : 384.2 points/day ; 0.27 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 279.6 points (-28.0) ; Month Average : 336.8 points/day ; 0.24 (-)



chakkra on 12 November 2018
Symbios63 said:

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1613.3 points (-25.8) ; Month Average : 1423.2 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 280.5 points (+30.9) ; Month Average : 384.2 points/day ; 0.27 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 279.6 points (-28.0) ; Month Average : 336.8 points/day ; 0.24 (-)

The calm before the storm...



jason1637 on 12 November 2018

So far what Benji said on Era aligns with the tools November tracking.
"To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already"



Nuvendil on 13 November 2018
jason1637 said:
So far what Benji said on Era aligns with the tools November tracking.
"To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already"

Also good for the tool's October result.  Most of this first week momentum is due to the Smash and Diablo bundles, especially Smash, and those launched in the final days of the October tracking period.  And it was the preorders for those that drove the Switch's big October lead.



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JSG87 on 13 November 2018
jason1637 said:
So far what Benji said on Era aligns with the tools November tracking.
"To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already"

 

Could you quote his post for me please?



Mbolibombo on 13 November 2018
JSG87 said:
jason1637 said:
So far what Benji said on Era aligns with the tools November tracking.
"To be clear we are only 1 week into November tracking and Switch is soaring already"

 

Could you quote his post for me please?

Not sure if linking to other forums are availible.. but post #415 in the October NPD prediction thread.



JSG87 on 13 November 2018
Mbolibombo said:
JSG87 said:

 

Could you quote his post for me please?

Not sure if linking to other forums are availible.. but post #415 in the October NPD prediction thread.

 

I fount it. Thanks!



Symbios63 on 13 November 2018

11/13/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 13 (-) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 35 (+1) - 299.00$
3 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 37 (R) - 399.99$
4 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 39 (-2) - 399.99$
5 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 65 (+12) - 299.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 74 + 36 = 110 points (+8) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 150 + 82 + 78 = 310 points (+80)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-) - 359.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 6 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 7 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 20 (-) - 499.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (-) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 54 (+1) - 499.99$
12 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 57 (-) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 71 (-) - 499.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 90 (-) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 200 + 145 = 550 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 115 + 102 + 46 + 44 + 30 = 523 points (+1) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 180 + 130 + 11 = 721 points (-)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 2 (+1)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 12 (+1)
3 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 26 (+2)
4 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 66 (+28)
5 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 76 (+1)
6 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 115 (+36)
7 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 119 (+22)

Out of Top 100 :

2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 9 (-)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 35 (-7)
10 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 195 (-12)

PS4 : 86 + 41 = 127 points (+39) ; XBO : 76 points (+2) ; NS : 210 + 185 + 150 + 43 = 588 points (-285)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1392.3 points (-221.0) ; Month Average : 1420.4 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 283.4 points (+2.9) ; Month Average : 375.1 points/day ; 0.26 (-0.01)
3 - PS4 : 325.0 points (+45.4) ; Month Average : 335.7 points/day ; 0.24 (-)



Symbios63 on 14 November 2018

11/14/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 12 (+1) - 299.00$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 31 (+4) - 299.00$
3 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 36 (+3) - 399.99$
4 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 53 (+12) - 299.99$
5 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 100 (-63) - Out of Stock

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 80 + 48 = 128 points (+18) ; XBO : 0 point (-) ; NS : 155 + 90 + 1 = 246 points (-64)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-) - 359.99$
2 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 2 (-) - 399.99$
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 3 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 5 (-) - 299.99$
5 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 6 (-) - 299.99$
6 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 7 (-) - 299.99$
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 14 (-) - 499.99$
8 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 17 (-) - 299.99$
9 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 20 (-) - 499.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 25 (-) - 299.99$
11 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 54 (+1) - 499.99$
12 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 57 (-) - 299.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 71 (-) - 499.99$
14 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 89 (+1) - 399.99$

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 200 + 145 = 550 points (-) ; XBO : 185 + 115 + 102 + 46 + 44 + 30 = 523 points (-) ; NS : 210 + 190 + 180 + 130 + 12 = 722 points (+1)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 3 (-1)
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 5 (+7)
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 34 (-8)
4 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 55 (+11)
5 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 93 (+22)
6 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 102 (-26)
7 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 108 (+11)
8 (R) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 168 (R)

Out of Top 100 :

2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu! - 9 (-)
5 (-) - Nintendo Switch Pokemon Let's Go Evee! - 35 (-7)


PS4 : 96 + 47 = 143 points (+16) ; XBO : 50 points (-26) ; NS : 205 + 200 + 130 + 58 + 17 = 610 points (+22)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1363.3 points (-29.0) ; Month Average : 1415.6 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 249.6 points (-33.8) ; Month Average : 364.6 points/day ; 0.26 (-)
3 - PS4 : 355.4 points (+30.4) ; Month Average : 337.4 points/day ; 0.24 (-)