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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

gtjay1982 on 09 November 2018
Mbolibombo said:
Train wreck said:

It wasn't well established back then, November 2017 was one of the few months that Amazon did not agree to NPD.  And even the best this site has didn't have another source, why would you think Rick would have one?

What I am saying is we dont know if the Switch was crushing PS4 or Xbox at the time. What people thought then, means nothing when making a statement today with the knowledge we have now.

Clearly Rick does not have any other source. I just wanted to see him say he was using Amazon which would be amusing.

I don't get what you are trying to say.  Using Amazon last year to say Switch was selling more before BF is no different than looking at this tool now and saying switch is selling more before black friday.  



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Kai_Mao on 09 November 2018
Mbolibombo said:
nero said:
XBO an PS4 the same and the switch is entering holidays mode. Can the swich surpass the 1m+ sold this month?

Last years November Switch sold 800k With no significant releases in the month outside of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 late in the period and Odyssey in the month before.

This year there's Pokemon and the upcoming Smash which surely should drive hardware at a higer rate. Not to mention all the bundles availible around BF. I would be hugely surprised if it did not reach 1M this November.

Yeah, the $299 Switch + Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can entice some new consumers (especially since Kart 8 Deluxe has already passed it's original's LT sales so there's more potential for new consumers).



Kerotan on 09 November 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Mar1217 said:
I know he isn't there but I should say it :

"This trajectory from Xbone is litteraly a cliff !"

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

Well that 10 day ban was followed by a 2 week ban so he won't be back until Black Friday.

Barkley said:
Chorlin said:
Im a little lost. Can someone tell me who will win october npd according to this tool?
Thanks.

Switch > XBO > PS4 according to this tool.

Ratios - Switch 1, XBO 0.74, PS4 0.66.

I just can't see it working out like that for October. When do we get results? 

MasonADC said:
kenjab said:

It's still early in the month.  I bet most PS4/XB1 shoppers are waiting for the Black Friday deals, which are better for those consoles than Switch

Even then, being in first by three times the closer competitor is a really strong start. We also have October results to look forward too

Again I just can't see it. IMO PS4 will beat Switch for October and November. 



Nuvendil on 09 November 2018

One thing to keep in mind with Switch's lead is that it is being fueled by pre-black friday deals to a large degree. The Pokemon bundles release before then and the Diablo and Smash bundles are out now. Black Friday makes up a big, big percentage of the month though. I will say though, Nintendo is going into this month and black friday much better equipped then last time. I'm certain it will be up yoy, question is if it will beat the other two.



MasonADC on 09 November 2018
Kerotan said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Lol. Where is ol' CliffRick anyway? Been kinda silent lately 

Well that 10 day ban was followed by a 2 week ban so he won't be back until Black Friday.

Barkley said:

Switch > XBO > PS4 according to this tool.

Ratios - Switch 1, XBO 0.74, PS4 0.66.

I just can't see it working out like that for October. When do we get results? 

MasonADC said:

Even then, being in first by three times the closer competitor is a really strong start. We also have October results to look forward too

Again I just can't see it. IMO PS4 will beat Switch for October and November. 

I can't see it winning October either, but November is to crazy for me to predict, so anything could happen.  It definitely won't be as big as a gap like last year November. Plus, maybe the smash bundle did wonders for the october npd



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Kai_Mao on 09 November 2018
Nuvendil said:
One thing to keep in mind with Switch's lead is that it is being fueled by pre-black friday deals to a large degree. The Pokemon bundles release before then and the Diablo and Smash bundles are out now. Black Friday makes up a big, big percentage of the month though. I will say though, Nintendo is going into this month and black friday much better equipped then last time. I'm certain it will be up yoy, question is if it will beat the other two.

Yea I think Nintendo is setting itself up for a better Black Friday this year than last year as well. Last year, not a lot of bundles and the Pokemon Let's Go, Diablo III, Fornite, and Smash Bros. bundles appear more appealing than the lone Mario Odyssey bundle, no matter how great the game was/is. Plus, the $299 Switch + Mario Kart 8 Deluxe BF deal (albeit, it appears to be only a Target exclusive deal) is enticing as well.



MasonADC on 09 November 2018
Kai_Mao said:
Nuvendil said:
One thing to keep in mind with Switch's lead is that it is being fueled by pre-black friday deals to a large degree. The Pokemon bundles release before then and the Diablo and Smash bundles are out now. Black Friday makes up a big, big percentage of the month though. I will say though, Nintendo is going into this month and black friday much better equipped then last time. I'm certain it will be up yoy, question is if it will beat the other two.

Yea I think Nintendo is setting itself up for a better Black Friday this year than last year as well. Last year, not a lot of bundles and the Pokemon Let's Go, Diablo III, Fornite, and Smash Bros. bundles appear more appealing than the lone Mario Odyssey bundle, no matter how great the game was/is. Plus, the $299 Switch + Mario Kart 8 Deluxe BF deal (albeit, it appears to be only a Target exclusive deal) is enticing as well.

BestBuy confirmed the same Mario Kart Bundle



PortisheadBiscuit on 09 November 2018
Nuvendil said:
One thing to keep in mind with Switch's lead is that it is being fueled by pre-black friday deals to a large degree. The Pokemon bundles release before then and the Diablo and Smash bundles are out now. Black Friday makes up a big, big percentage of the month though. I will say though, Nintendo is going into this month and black friday much better equipped then last time. I'm certain it will be up yoy, question is if it will beat the other two.

Switch definitely seems poised to have a better November than last year with Pokemon and all the various bundles. Beating a $199 PS4 bundled with Superman might be a tough task though. November all depends on how much stock Sony provides for BF. 



Kai_Mao on 09 November 2018
MasonADC said:
Kai_Mao said:

Yea I think Nintendo is setting itself up for a better Black Friday this year than last year as well. Last year, not a lot of bundles and the Pokemon Let's Go, Diablo III, Fornite, and Smash Bros. bundles appear more appealing than the lone Mario Odyssey bundle, no matter how great the game was/is. Plus, the $299 Switch + Mario Kart 8 Deluxe BF deal (albeit, it appears to be only a Target exclusive deal) is enticing as well.

BestBuy confirmed the same Mario Kart Bundle

Ok cool



Kerotan on 09 November 2018
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Nuvendil said:
One thing to keep in mind with Switch's lead is that it is being fueled by pre-black friday deals to a large degree. The Pokemon bundles release before then and the Diablo and Smash bundles are out now. Black Friday makes up a big, big percentage of the month though. I will say though, Nintendo is going into this month and black friday much better equipped then last time. I'm certain it will be up yoy, question is if it will beat the other two.

Switch definitely seems poised to have a better November than last year with Pokemon and all the various bundles. Beating a $199 PS4 bundled with Superman might be a tough task though. November all depends on how much stock Sony provides for BF. 

After last year it would be a bit weird if Sony didn't provide enough stock. It's not like if they have 20% of stock unsold t won't sell over the 2 weeks after. And with such a good software line up on the platform now how could they underestimate it again.