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Forums - Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool

pitzy272 on 30 October 2018
zorg1000 said:
pitzy272 said:
How can MS get away with bundling RDR2 with all of their XBOs? I really don’t understand how this isn’t a legal issue, considering Sony and Rockstar have a deal for marketing and bundling with PS4. MS has been doing this for years, but they started off subtle to avoid legal issues (e.g. Destiny fragrance ad for Destiny 1) and now have become very aggressive where they are actually creating their own bundle. If they can get away with this on this level, what is the point of third party partnerships?

Its not a bundle, it's a discount.

But it IS a bundle, essentially (ontop of a discount). I’ve seen numerous ads for “get an XBO with Red dead redemption for...”.

It’s still one of the top 4 stories on IGN—one of the big 4 at the top, and then the same story is also listed lower on the page. Then there is also an actual ad as well. 



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Mbolibombo on 30 October 2018

The NPD tool is up for a test now.

If there's any truth to the HW numbers PS4 is about 50% higher than the Switch in weekly sales for both weeks so far.

Also, what the heck?

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+32) - 299.99$

2 (+5) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 4 (+50) - 299.99$

3 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (+37) - 299.99$

4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (+30) - 299.99$

5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 13 (R) - 359.99$



jason1637 on 30 October 2018
Mbolibombo said:

The NPD tool is up for a test now.

If there's any truth to the HW numbers PS4 is about 50% higher than the Switch in weekly sales for both weeks so far.

Also, what the heck?

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (+32) - 299.99$

2 (+5) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 4 (+50) - 299.99$

3 (+3) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (+37) - 299.99$

4 (-1) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (+30) - 299.99$

5 (R) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 13 (R) - 359.99$

Remember that for this tool we average in pre orders for for each day so it won't represent the actual results until the month is over.



gtjay1982 on 30 October 2018
jason1637 said:
gtjay1982 said:

 

Oops!  Looks like it did about 12 million just over the weekend.

No it didnt. $750m in revenue doesn’t mean 12m sales. The game has higher priced versions and this could also include ps4 pro bundle revenue. 

 

That's why I said about.  No one knows the exact number but it should be pretty close to that.  In 2015 FO4 did 12 million units shipped in a day and generated $750 million dollars.  One thing we do know is that it sold more than your prediction of 5 million in a week.  



zorg1000 on 30 October 2018
gtjay1982 said:
jason1637 said:

No it didnt. $750m in revenue doesn’t mean 12m sales. The game has higher priced versions and this could also include ps4 pro bundle revenue. 

 

That's why I said about.  No one knows the exact number but it should be pretty close to that.  In 2015 FO4 did 12 million units shipped in a day and generated $750 million dollars.  One thing we do know is that it sold more than your prediction of 5 million in a week.  

Even factoring in the higher priced versions, it should be over 10 million I would think.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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jason1637 on 30 October 2018
gtjay1982 said:
jason1637 said:

No it didnt. $750m in revenue doesn’t mean 12m sales. The game has higher priced versions and this could also include ps4 pro bundle revenue. 

 

That's why I said about.  No one knows the exact number but it should be pretty close to that.  In 2015 FO4 did 12 million units shipped in a day and generated $750 million dollars.  One thing we do know is that it sold more than your prediction of 5 million in a week.  

I'm still skeptical.  Since 2015 more gamers are buying games at a higher price point. I still think it sold 5m first few days but I could see it being tops 7 or 8m.



Pionner on 31 October 2018

1 week of sales wouldn't be enough to put XB1 ahead of PS4 in total sales for October. Even if it sold more this week. There's also pre orders for the RDR2 bundle.



Formerly ilovegirls69  :(

Symbios63 on 31 October 2018

10/31/18 :


- Amazon :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 23 (-) - 299.00$
2 (R) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 39 (R) - 359.99$
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 45 (-1) - 299.99$
4 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 47 (-2) - 299.00$

Out of Top 100 :

4 (-) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 80 (-13) - 299.99$
5 (R) - XBox One X 1Tb - 98 (R) - 484.95$

PS4 : 0 point (-) ; XBO : 0 point (-24) ; NS : 106 + 74 + 62 + 58 = 300 points (+68)


- Best Buy :

1 (-) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Black - 2 (-) - 299.99$
2 (-) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 5 (-1) - 299.99$
3 (-) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 6 (-) - 299.99$
4 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Fortnite - 7 (-) - 299.99$
5 (+3) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 8 (+38) - 499.99$
6 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 15 (-6) - 399.99$
7 (-2) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 17 (-4) - 359.99$
8 (+1) - XBox One X 1Tb Shadow of the Tomb Raider - 58 (-6) - 499.99$
9 (-2) - XBox One S NBA 2K19 - 63 (-43) - 299.99$
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Starter Bundle - 74 (-6) - 299.99$
11 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 75 (-5) - 299.99$
12 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb - 80 (-4) - 499.99$
13 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 87 (-2) - 499.99$ - November 9th

Out of Top 100 :

-

PS4 : 205 + 175 + 140 = 520 points (+110) ; XBO : 180 + 43 + 38 + 27 + 21 = 309 points (-93) ; NS : 190 + 185 + 130 + 26 = 531 points (-30)


- Gamestop :

1 (-) - Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle - 1 (-)
2 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Diablo III EC - 4 (+2)
3 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Pikachu! Bundle - 5 (-) - November 16th
4 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (P) - 12 (-2)
5 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Red Dead Redemption 2 Bundle - 13 (-1)
6 (R) - Nintendo Switch Pokémon let's Go Evee! Bundle - 23 (R) - November 16th
7 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb + RDR2 (P) - 30 (-10)
8 (-) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (D) - 44 (-)
9 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (D) - 49 (-13)
10 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 (P) - 58 (-8)
11 (-) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (P) - 61 (+2)
12 (-3) - XBox One X 1Tb - 68 (-19)
13 (-1) - Playstation 4 Slim 1 Tb - 75 (+4)
14 (-1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Black - 93 (-9)
15 (+1) - Nintendo Switch Fortnite Double Helix Bundle - 94 (+7)
16 (-2) - XBox One S 1Tb Sea of Thieves + RDR2 (D) - 101 (-14)
17 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (SE) - 112 (-21)
18 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Battlefield 5 - 113 (+4) - 299.99$ - November 20th
19 (-1) - XBox One X 1Tb Robot White Fallout 76 + RDR2 (UE) - 121 (+2)
20 (-1) - Nintendo Switch Neon - 132 (-8)
21 (-) - Nintendo Switch Grey - 159 (+3)
22 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb NBA 2K19 + RDR2 - 168 (-22)
23 (N) - XBox One X 1Tb + RDR2 (D) - 188 (N)

Out of Top 100 :

22 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb Fallout 76 - 185 (-30)
23 (-2) - XBox One X 1Tb PUBG + RDR2 - 193 (-12)

PS4 : 180 + 76 + 58 = 314 points (-11) ; XBO : 185 + 140 + 108 + 102 + 94 + 90 + 84 + 50 + 45 + 40 + 17 + 7 = 962 points (-120) ; NS : 210 + 205 + 58 + 35 + 21 = 529 points (+14)

Overall (with preorders from last months) :

1 - NS : 1071.3 points (+62.4) ; Month Average : 839.9 points/day ; 1.0
2 - XBO : 1418.0 points (-205.2) ; Month Average : 623.0 points/day ; 0.74 (+0.03)
3 - PS4 : 537.7 points (+11.0) ; Month Average : 568.2 points/day ; 0.68 (-0.01)



Miyamotoo on 31 October 2018
Symbios63 

Can you pls update OP with all past months results (tracker and NPD results).

We missing August and September results, and July missing NPD numbers.



Symbios63 on 31 October 2018
Pionner said:
1 week of sales wouldn't be enough to put XB1 ahead of PS4 in total sales for October. Even if it sold more this week. There's also pre orders for the RDR2 bundle.

I am not saying that the tool will be right again this month, PS4 might indeed still be ahead of XBO.

About pre orders though, those are taken into account already. Each console has a daily average bonus based on the amount of points products releasing in October got in previous month. PS4 is 119.7 this month (RDR2 bundle mainly) XBO is 67 (Fallout76 bundle mainly) and NS is 196.1 (Smash bundle mainly).