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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2018 NPD Thread! Switch #1

jason1637 on 22 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Nice work 

I used easy numbers for quick calculations, but the glaring error is that total hardware revenue was only $278m, so Switch, PS4 and Xbox One being within 3% of each other would push the three systems to a combined $270m already.

Reducing the previous assumption to $80m worth of Switch revenue results in 267k units and a combined total of $240m between Switch, PS4 and Xbox One. 3DS sales of 150k at an ASP of $150 is revenue of $22.5m, leaving ~$15m of the grand total of $278m in hardware revenue for the SNES Mini and the living dead of other consoles.

Here the 3DS revenue is a high ball estimate because the 2DS at $80 is a better selling model than the New 3DS models that retail for over $150; the New 2DS XL is $150. The SNES Mini doesn't generate high revenue and neither do the remaining consoles.

So while the $90m basis of the previous post was too high, a downward adjustment to $80m seems to be too big. Switch is likely ~280k and the PS4 ~260k. Haven't looked into Xbox One pricing, but its premium SKU pushes up the ASP, so I throw a figure of ~240k into the room and call it a day.

Matt said the sku pushing the 3DS is the 2DS which is $80.



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zorg1000 on 22 February 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Many of the people who thought PS4 would win used MHW & DBZ as reasons.

Many? Well then i must have been living under a rock being that this thread was the first I ever heard of it.

I mean it wasnt the general consensus or anything but it was more than a couple people.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JRPGfan on 22 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Nice work 

I used easy numbers for quick calculations, but the glaring error is that total hardware revenue was only $278m, so Switch, PS4 and Xbox One being within 3% of each other would push the three systems to a combined $270m already.

Reducing the previous assumption to $80m worth of Switch revenue results in 267k units and a combined total of $240m between Switch, PS4 and Xbox One. 3DS sales of 150k at an ASP of $150 is revenue of $22.5m, leaving ~$15m of the grand total of $278m in hardware revenue for the SNES Mini and the living dead of other consoles.

Here the 3DS revenue is a high ball estimate because the 2DS at $80 is a better selling model than the New 3DS models that retail for over $150; the New 2DS XL is $150. The SNES Mini doesn't generate high revenue and neither do the remaining consoles.

So while the $90m basis of the previous post was too high, a downward adjustment to $80m seems to be too big. Switch is likely ~280k and the PS4 ~260k. Haven't looked into Xbox One pricing, but its premium SKU pushes up the ASP, so I throw a figure of ~240k into the room and call it a day.

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

^ hellva good work there, sounds likely as well as far as numbers go.



LipeJJ on 22 February 2018
Farsala said:
LipeJJ said:

Actually, what you said makes it even better for Switch if we consider it came out on PS4’s peak. Like you said, it’s older than it, which actually should give it a big advantage over Switch which is still on its first year (remember Ps4’s first year? It was it’s worst sales wise). Not to mention they are the same price, like you said, while PS4 has 20x the amount of (cheaper) games and bundles.

Unless the Switch sold more than 340k, PS4's 1st January was actually better with stock issues.

271k/4 weeks, 67.75k/ week, if extrapolated to 5 weeks then it would be ~339k @$400.

Switch 5 weeks? 340k @ $300?

You mean... Jan 2014? And... what does a specific month has to do with what I said? I said the first year (12 months) were the worst for PS4. It just got better and better sales over time, which is usually the trend for a console. Doesn't make a difference if it sold more or less in one month, which it even didn't btw, when we're talking about a year.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

quickrick on 22 February 2018
RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Nice work 

I used easy numbers for quick calculations, but the glaring error is that total hardware revenue was only $278m, so Switch, PS4 and Xbox One being within 3% of each other would push the three systems to a combined $270m already.

Reducing the previous assumption to $80m worth of Switch revenue results in 267k units and a combined total of $240m between Switch, PS4 and Xbox One. 3DS sales of 150k at an ASP of $150 is revenue of $22.5m, leaving ~$15m of the grand total of $278m in hardware revenue for the SNES Mini and the living dead of other consoles.

Here the 3DS revenue is a high ball estimate because the 2DS at $80 is a better selling model than the New 3DS models that retail for over $150; the New 2DS XL is $150. The SNES Mini doesn't generate high revenue and neither do the remaining consoles.

So while the $90m basis of the previous post was too high, a downward adjustment to $80m seems to be too big. Switch is likely ~280k and the PS4 ~260k. Haven't looked into Xbox One pricing, but its premium SKU pushes up the ASP, so I throw a figure of ~240k into the room and call it a day.

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

if those are the numbers i win the bet with cg.



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LipeJJ on 22 February 2018
JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

I used easy numbers for quick calculations, but the glaring error is that total hardware revenue was only $278m, so Switch, PS4 and Xbox One being within 3% of each other would push the three systems to a combined $270m already.

Reducing the previous assumption to $80m worth of Switch revenue results in 267k units and a combined total of $240m between Switch, PS4 and Xbox One. 3DS sales of 150k at an ASP of $150 is revenue of $22.5m, leaving ~$15m of the grand total of $278m in hardware revenue for the SNES Mini and the living dead of other consoles.

Here the 3DS revenue is a high ball estimate because the 2DS at $80 is a better selling model than the New 3DS models that retail for over $150; the New 2DS XL is $150. The SNES Mini doesn't generate high revenue and neither do the remaining consoles.

So while the $90m basis of the previous post was too high, a downward adjustment to $80m seems to be too big. Switch is likely ~280k and the PS4 ~260k. Haven't looked into Xbox One pricing, but its premium SKU pushes up the ASP, so I throw a figure of ~240k into the room and call it a day.

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

^ hellva good work there, sounds likely as well as far as numbers go.

Really amazing. I hope someone leak February's numbers tho. xD

Btw, will the next NPD be near the end of March like this one, or earlier?



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

flashfire926 on 22 February 2018
LipeJJ said:
JRPGfan said:

^ hellva good work there, sounds likely as well as far as numbers go.

Really amazing. I hope someone leak February's numbers tho. xD

Btw, will the next NPD be near the end of March like this one, or earlier?

March 20th.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

zorg1000 on 22 February 2018
RolStoppable said:

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

 

3DS is too high, it did 145k in 2013.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

jason1637 on 22 February 2018
LipeJJ said:
JRPGfan said:

^ hellva good work there, sounds likely as well as far as numbers go.

Really amazing. I hope someone leak February's numbers tho. xD

Btw, will the next NPD be near the end of March like this one, or earlier?

February is a 4 week month so it should be earlier in March.



quickrick on 22 February 2018
zorg1000 said:
RolStoppable said:

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

 

3DS is too high, it did 145k in 2013.

yea super nes needs to be at 125k