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quickrick on 22 February 2018
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RolStoppable said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Nice work 

I used easy numbers for quick calculations, but the glaring error is that total hardware revenue was only $278m, so Switch, PS4 and Xbox One being within 3% of each other would push the three systems to a combined $270m already.

Reducing the previous assumption to $80m worth of Switch revenue results in 267k units and a combined total of $240m between Switch, PS4 and Xbox One. 3DS sales of 150k at an ASP of $150 is revenue of $22.5m, leaving ~$15m of the grand total of $278m in hardware revenue for the SNES Mini and the living dead of other consoles.

Here the 3DS revenue is a high ball estimate because the 2DS at $80 is a better selling model than the New 3DS models that retail for over $150; the New 2DS XL is $150. The SNES Mini doesn't generate high revenue and neither do the remaining consoles.

So while the $90m basis of the previous post was too high, a downward adjustment to $80m seems to be too big. Switch is likely ~280k and the PS4 ~260k. Haven't looked into Xbox One pricing, but its premium SKU pushes up the ASP, so I throw a figure of ~240k into the room and call it a day.

EDIT: 280k for Switch, 260k for PS4, 240k for Xbox One, 150k for 3DS and 100k SNES Minis combine for a total of over 1m units of hardware, so this doublecheck lines up with the public NPD release.

if those are the numbers i win the bet with cg.