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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. February bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

quickrick on 15 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
quickrick said:

how did you get 300K for based on the chart? for the chart includes all of north america, switch was 2.3 million as of september 30, it was at 209k nn canada, if use the math to how much they increased  in the USA switch should be very well around 430k in canada after the holidays, that would put it at 5.3 million, then you probably have another 50k sold sold through in other places in north america, plus another 10k, in canada, i don't how your numbers are that high.

Alright, just watch closely the last 3 weeks

That is clearly something in the 300k range or close to it.

well you can throw those graphs in the garbage for getting accurate monthly numbers, japan, europe, and NA all basically look the same.

 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180201_2e.pdf

Last edited by quickrick - on 15 February 2018

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quickrick on 15 February 2018
nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

But that post shows that it is out of stock. BTW, the original photo was taken by Serkan Toto of Kantan Games (a video game consultancy group in Japan), and he has in no way stated that the system is easy to find.

For this week specifically, Yodobashi got some stock that sold out in about a day. BIC recently received stock and I am watching to see how long it takes for it to sell out, and Amazon got larger Neon stock and less Grey Stock (Grey sold out fairly quickly).

resetera is pretty good with this stuff, many have stated thats its not hard to find, its available in some stores, sold out at others, you can choose to believe them or not. 



quickrick on 15 February 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
quickrick said:

how did you get 300K for based on the chart? for the chart includes all of north america, switch was 2.3 million as of september 30, it was at 209k nn canada, if use the math to how much they increased  in the USA switch should be very well around 430k in canada after the holidays, that would put it at 5.3 million, then you probably have another 50k sold sold through in other places in north america, plus another 10k, in canada, i don't how your numbers are that high.

Alright, just watch closely the last 3 weeks

That is clearly something in the 300k range or close to it.

what you getting in japan chart, it clearly looks like 400k.

Last edited by quickrick - on 15 February 2018

jason1637 on 15 February 2018

On the 18th MS is cutting the price of the OneS by $50 til Match 3rd and releasing a PUBG OneS on the 20th. Also they are bringing back the buy are OneX and get PUBG free deal.



nemo37 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I would like to know who your sources are. Pretty much every thing I have seen both anecdotal and quantitative show that the stock situation has not changed since the end 2017. Big electronics retailers like Yodobashi Camera (largest electronics retailer in Japan) and Bic Camera get smaller weekly shipments that sell out between 2-3 days, and Amazon gets fewer but larger shipments that last a bit longer. This has been the pattern since about October of 2017. In addition, Yodobashi and Amazon, which have rankings, have Switch hardware jump to being the #1 hardware SKU whenever there is a stock replenishment, indicating that the demand, at least for now, is there. Finally, there are going to be days when certain stores get stock, that is the entire point of shipments, but that does not have any barring on how long the stock lasts.

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

I honestly believe shortages are artificial in japan at this point, nintedo forcast is 950k a month shipped, yet switch is still sold out in some store, which doesn't make any sense.

Sorry I am replying twice to your comment but I did not see the expert below the link. But the 950K per month number is worldwide target shipments. So far Nintendo has shipped 25% of Switch supply to Japan. Thus, assuming that they continue to allocate 25% of shipments to Japan, then Nintendo needs to ship 237K units per month (711K until the end of March) in Japan. Based on this they are already ahead of their target for January. Media Create data has them selling 273K units as of January 28, which leaves about 438K left to sell in 2 months. That is about 54K a week, which means that there is a deficit with regards to the units shipped thus far but not by much (so far it is around 15K).

I am also unsure as to why they would create artificial shortages. That is a theory that I have seen past around several gaming oriented sites and it always seems to apply to Nintendo. Oddly enough when PS4 was sold out in most places in its initial 6-8 months (depending on the region) not many people on gaming forums attributed that to Sony trying to create artificial shortages. I don't see why any company would want to do that considering you have to pay to store unsold inventory, you could lose customers attention, and for a platform you would be limiting the installbase and stifling software during a critical growth period. 



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quickrick on 15 February 2018
nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4528877/

I honestly believe shortages are artificial in japan at this point, nintedo forcast is 950k a month shipped, yet switch is still sold out in some store, which doesn't make any sense.

Sorry I am replying twice to your comment but I did not see the expert below the link. But the 950K per month number is worldwide target shipments. So far Nintendo has shipped 25% of Switch supply to Japan. Thus, assuming that they continue to allocate 25% of shipments to Japan, then Nintendo needs to ship 237K units per month (711K until the end of March) in Japan. Based on this they are already ahead of their target for January. Media Create data has them selling 273K units as of January 28, which leaves about 438K left to sell in 2 months. That is about 54K a week, which means that there is a deficit with regards to the units shipped thus far but not by much (so far it is around 15K).

I am also unsure as to why they would create artificial shortages. That is a theory that I have seen past around several gaming oriented sites and it always seems to apply to Nintendo. Oddly enough when PS4 was sold out in most places in its initial 6-8 months (depending on the region) not many people on gaming forums attributed that to Sony trying to create artificial shortages. I don't see why any company would want to do that considering you have to pay to store unsold inventory, you could lose customers attention, and for a platform you would be limiting the installbase and stifling software during a critical growth period. 

they shipped out 3.72 million by DEC 31, according to media create they still havent sold that much after 40 days, there is no excuse for not shipping another 200k by feb1, i always thought artificial shortages were stupid, but looking at these numbers they are hard to deny.



nemo37 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

But that post shows that it is out of stock. BTW, the original photo was taken by Serkan Toto of Kantan Games (a video game consultancy group in Japan), and he has in no way stated that the system is easy to find.

For this week specifically, Yodobashi got some stock that sold out in about a day. BIC recently received stock and I am watching to see how long it takes for it to sell out, and Amazon got larger Neon stock and less Grey Stock (Grey sold out fairly quickly).

resetera is pretty good with this stuff, many have stated thats its not hard to find, its available in some stores, sold out at others, you can choose to believe them or not. 

I do agree that there people on ResetEra from Japan that do great reporting. I look at the Media Create sales pages because these people often provide information on when the next shipments are (local stores typically advertise major restocks a few days in advance). However, I have not seen people say that it is readily available. That poster you mentioned said that the stores that do have them have low-stocks, that goes in line with the small weekly shipments that I have been talking (if there were no shipments what so ever then Switch would have 0 hardware sold in Japan). Also, that does not mean that the system is easy to find, as it is quite likely that the stores do get low-quantities sell them quite quickly (again in line with what we have been seeing from Yodobashi and Bic). 



quickrick on 15 February 2018
nemo37 said:
quickrick said:

resetera is pretty good with this stuff, many have stated thats its not hard to find, its available in some stores, sold out at others, you can choose to believe them or not. 

I do agree that there people on ResetEra from Japan that do great reporting. I look at the Media Create sales pages because these people often provide information on when the next shipments are (local stores typically advertise major restocks a few days in advance). However, I have not seen people say that it is readily available. That poster you mentioned said that the stores that do have them have low-stocks, that goes in line with the small weekly shipments that I have been talking (if there were no shipments what so ever then Switch would have 0 hardware sold in Japan). Also, that does not mean that the system is easy to find, as it is quite likely that the stores do get low-quantities sell them quite quickly (again in line with what we have been seeing from Yodobashi and Bic). 

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520069/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520302/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520251/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520174/



xMetroid on 15 February 2018

Every damn time i see a topic getting more post than usuall its always related to Quickrick lol.



nemo37 on 15 February 2018
quickrick said:
nemo37 said:

I do agree that there people on ResetEra from Japan that do great reporting. I look at the Media Create sales pages because these people often provide information on when the next shipments are (local stores typically advertise major restocks a few days in advance). However, I have not seen people say that it is readily available. That poster you mentioned said that the stores that do have them have low-stocks, that goes in line with the small weekly shipments that I have been talking (if there were no shipments what so ever then Switch would have 0 hardware sold in Japan). Also, that does not mean that the system is easy to find, as it is quite likely that the stores do get low-quantities sell them quite quickly (again in line with what we have been seeing from Yodobashi and Bic). 

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520069/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520302/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520251/

https://www.resetera.com/posts/4520174/

Thank you for the sources. Though I think it is a far cry to go from no longer having stay in line for lotteries to being able to access a low quantities of a system or easily and make reservation that are fulfilled more quickly to saying that anyone that wants one can get one now. It is also still too early to establish a demand-based base line. Though if Nintendo continues making more frequent shipments like these, then we will probably have a good balance between supply and demand in the first-half of the year.