This is it!
The Big One!
Black Friday Week!!

The $199 Spider-Man bundle did absolute wonders for the PS4. It was up by over 1 million units from last week and almost even YoY with last year's Black Friday, which had just the $199 lone PS4 bundle. As a result, it didn't fall nearly behind YoY as it could have. In fact, adjustments were made all the way back to around week 26-27 bringing 2018's totals up. Still down YoY by 1.8, but it's nice to see 2018 doing better than we thought. Now comes the true test: December. How much of a drop are we going to see next week and how will it effect the rest of the year as we near the finish line?

The biggest surprise of this week, for me anyways, was the Xbox One. Not only did it manage to be up YoY from Black Friday last year, but it also saw some adjustments from the previous weeks that now has 2018 back up YoY over 2017! I was not expecting that at all and am very impressed that Microsoft managed to pull this off! Phil Spencer deserves major credit for turning the ship around. They've come a long way from their initial reveal. Now, the curious question is to see if it can maintain momentum for the rest of December. Before, I thought for sure it was going to finish down YoY and had no chance to catch up. Now, 2018 just might have a shot to pull it off.

Finally, the Nintendo Switch. At 1.349 million units sold, this is the biggest week for the Switch since its launch week. This system obviously had the biggest increase from last year and is now up by close to 2.3 million YoY, it's largest lead yet. And December should also be a massive increase over last year because of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Depending on how well the Switch does in December, Nintendo could still be well on track to meet their goal of shipping 20 million Switch units for the fiscal year.

This is why they will crush the 20M.
If we add this growing gap with the last poor Q4 that Switch had, and the much better Q4 which is to be expected, they will make it.

If VGChartz is correct, Switch is already up by almost 1m this quarter, with 5 full weeks still to go, some of which will be as big, or even bigger, than BF week for it. With all that in mind, it seems like it could be up at least 2m this quarter compared to last year when the year is over. If that carries to shipments, 10m shipped seems like a real possibility now. I wouldn't even dismiss their 20m shipped goal at this point.

It's totally possible, and we'll know in late January when they release their shipment figures. It needs to ship at least 10.5m to have a good shot, but preferably 11m. I think 10m is very likely imo, but we'll have to see how much more they can do.

The Smash bomb is still to come, at this same period last year every tactical bombs were out already for a while...

Nintendo had their overall Switch shipments figures at 17.79 million as of March 31st of this year, (15.05 million for the 2017 Fiscal Year). So to reach their goal, they need to have shipped 37.79 million by the end of March 2019.

Right now, their shipment number clocks in at 22.86 million as of September 30th. If it does 10.5 million this quarter, that would bring it to 33.36 million and it would still need 4.43 million units to ship in order to reach their goal.

For comparison's sake, Nintendo's shipment numbers by the end of December 2017 was 12.13 million units. Since they finished the last fiscal year with 15.05 million shipped. That means they shipped an additional 2.92 million units between in the first three months of this year.

Even coming off Pokemon, Smash Bros., and a 2D Mario releasing in January, shipping an additional 1.51 million units to meet their goal is a very tall order. It's not impossible, but it'll be difficult.

The big number I'll be looking for during their next financial update will be 34 million. For that, they would need to ship 11.14 million for this quarter - Another tall order, but it is doable. If they can reach that number, they would only need to ship 3.79 million units to meet their goal - an additional 770k units compared to last year. Something they should easily accomplish.

I agree, that's why I said at least 10.5m, like... less than that and it becomes impossible to reach 20m. That's why I also said 11m would be more desirable. That way, it would need to ship 3.9m next quarter, which is much more in the realm of possibilities. I think PS4 did it in the past, so it's definitely possible with NSMBUD and the momentum built by Smash.

I stick on my previous prediction :

Q1 2018 --- 1.88 --- 19.68
Q2 2018 --- 3.19 --- 22.87
Q3 2018 --- 11.3 --- 34.17
Q4 2018 --- 3.6 --- 37.77

Even at 19,7M they can claim victory...It would have been ridiculous for them to set a target at 19,5M.

And more : screaming for 20M during a year certainly has added a little hype-boost effect which might increase the final result by 0,3M lol.

It is all about "markethype" now it seems.

hmmmm.....Summing the numbers from April 1st to see the FY sales, it is still too early to say...

Switch already had it's biggest week other than the launch week with Pokemon release. I'm excited for the last month and how much more it'll sell and how close to 20mil it's gonna get