PAOerfulone said:
LipeJJ said:
It's totally possible, and we'll know in late January when they release their shipment figures. It needs to ship at least 10.5m to have a good shot, but preferably 11m. I think 10m is very likely imo, but we'll have to see how much more they can do.
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Nintendo had their overall Switch shipments figures at 17.79 million as of March 31st of this year, (15.05 million for the 2017 Fiscal Year). So to reach their goal, they need to have shipped 37.79 million by the end of March 2019.
Right now, their shipment number clocks in at 22.86 million as of September 30th. If it does 10.5 million this quarter, that would bring it to 33.36 million and it would still need 4.43 million units to ship in order to reach their goal.
For comparison's sake, Nintendo's shipment numbers by the end of December 2017 was 12.13 million units. Since they finished the last fiscal year with 15.05 million shipped. That means they shipped an additional 2.92 million units between in the first three months of this year.
Even coming off Pokemon, Smash Bros., and a 2D Mario releasing in January, shipping an additional 1.51 million units to meet their goal is a very tall order. It's not impossible, but it'll be difficult.
The big number I'll be looking for during their next financial update will be 34 million. For that, they would need to ship 11.14 million for this quarter - Another tall order, but it is doable. If they can reach that number, they would only need to ship 3.79 million units to meet their goal - an additional 770k units compared to last year. Something they should easily accomplish.
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I agree, that's why I said at least 10.5m, like... less than that and it becomes impossible to reach 20m. That's why I also said 11m would be more desirable. That way, it would need to ship 3.9m next quarter, which is much more in the realm of possibilities. I think PS4 did it in the past, so it's definitely possible with NSMBUD and the momentum built by Smash.
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