Parents spend far more than that on easily breakable toys all the time. The beauty of cardboard is its just as easy to repair.

ok are parents gonna spend 400$ for labo? because so far switch is selling to young adults. 

People paid $300+ for Wii Sports/Fit.

Something like the wii happens once in a life time. 

Not true, heck, it happened twice in just one generation; the other being DS with Nintendogs/Brain Training/etc.

I don't think those are comparable to wii, they both sold around 20 million each, they were very successful, but they were not the wii, the thing was sold out for 2 years, plus motion controls was a revolutionary idea back then, this is just motion controls with cardboard.  

Is this before or after Switch falls off a cliff? 

I think you are making a mistake trying to make a prediction on the product's sales by treating it as you would a video game.

Because it's a major project by Nintendo, Labo of course received some initial attention from that dedicated base. However, if Labo *does* truly become a major source of revenue for the company, that will not be due to people who view it as a video game, but rather, by people viewing it as a *toy*. And it's beyond evident that that's the market Nintendo has focused its marketing to, so far.

The product is distinct enough from a classical video game that any parent considering the purchase likely won't think about using them, when comparing value - it's a tangible object, in a much larger box. Toys *Are* generally more expensive. as well, so I don't see the price casuing any outrage.

Also, people don't preorder toys like they would a video game. For most other product, that's an option that the manufacturer won't even bother offering, in the first place. Demand is created, and products are sold, in the store. Now, the Labo *did* get an initial preorder spur, stemming simply from the creator's name - there's really no reason to expect anything to happen beyond that. This small initial demand should, however, be sufficient for major retailers to carry the product, from the beginning - which really gives Nintendo a massive advantage, in terms of immediate exposure.

I think this thing could do quite nicely.

DS sold more than the Wii did. 

Nintendo handhelds always sold better then ninendo consoles, DS would have probably did 110-120 million with out nintendogs or brain age. wii was a different story it sold because of the wii sports/motion control phenomenon back then.