220 million estimate, actual late Monday afternoon.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi' Delivers Second Largest Opening Ever
by Brad Brevet
December 17, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi delivered on expectations, debuting with the second largest opening weekend of all-time and propelling the box office to the third largest weekend ever based on estimates. In an attempt at counter-programming, Fox's Ferdinand got off to a bit of a slow start against the might of Star Wars as well as the continued strong performance of Pixar's Coco as it fell below Mojo's expectations, though the studio is optimistic when it comes to the film's future.
With an estimated $220 million, Star Wars: The Last Jedi delivered the second largest opening weekend everbehind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which debuted with $247.9 million back in 2015. Last Jedi got off to a strong start on Thursday night with the second largest preview gross ever of $45 million and became only the second film to ever gross over $100 million on opening day resulting in the second largest opening day ever,second largest single day, second largest Friday and joins Force Awakens as the fastest films to reach $100 million.
Opening day demographics show the film played to an audience that was 58% male vs. 43% female and of that audience 37% was 25 years old or under. Opening day audiences gave the film an "A" CinemaScore, matching the score for Force Awakens. However, there may be a small glitch in the Force as many are pointing to theRottenTomatoes audience score for Last Jedi, which is currently 56% vs. a 93% score from critics. It is the largest audience-to-critic divide for films in the Star Wars franchise on the site. Additionally, IMDb is showing a down tick in user ratings when compared to user ratings for Force Awakens (8.8/10) and Rogue One (8.3/10) on the Sunday following release with Last Jedi currently holding a 8/10 rating. Just how significant an effect this data has on the film may be difficult to assess given the sheer size of its grosses, but it's definitely worth noting.
That being said, projecting Last Jedi's future prospects using the multipliers for previous $200+ million openers, as well as Rogue One, gives us the following possibilities based on the film's estimated $220 million debut:
- Force Awakens (3.8x multiplier) - $831.2 M
- Rogue One (3.4x multiplier) - $755.11 M
- Jurassic World (3.1x multiplier) - $687.38 M
- Avengers (3x multiplier) - $661.25 M
Using these numbers as a starting point, a domestic performance anywhere from $750-830 million feels a safe bet and it will be interesting to see where it ends up, especially considering some of these early responses from moviegoers. Of course, Last Jedi's performance doesn't end at the domestic box office.
Internationally, Last Jedi delivered an estimated $230 million overseas, which is the tenth largest overall international opening of all-time and the fifth largest global debut ever with $450 million. Those figures, however, take into account the fact The Fate of the Furious and Jurassic World also opened in China during their opening weekend. Exclude China grosses and Last Jedi holds the third largest global debut behind Force Awakens andHarry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Of the markets where the film is already in release, opening weekend performances are as follows:
- UK - $36.7 M (3rd largest ever)
- Germany - $23.6 M (2nd largest ever)
- France - $18.1 M