The physical edition releases in 12 days. Comg pre orders which are not Gospel would suggest an opening between 50-100k. Somewhere in that range most likely. This game could appeal to monster hunter fans especially considering it's strong point is online multiplayer. 

I know the game is available digitally so who knows how it's doing.  The question is though will thr physical edition turn into a small success or a fart in the wind?

https://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/aw/d/B072QWRXBC/ref=zg_bs_videogames_29?ie=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=DN4KAYJ67DS1YP9HEER4

Fart in a cyclone is more like it.

So the opening is going to be modest. But could it be another rainbow 6 Siege that catches on and does well overtime?

There will be a lot of Monster hunting fans jumping on the ps4 over the next 3-4 months so there's definitely a market for ark.

Throw some anime skins in there along with some maddeningly convoluted narrative full of mandatory quests and methinks it might sell a few.

As things stand, this type of game is probably about as unpopular in Japan as any I can think of lol

You just answered your question.

The market is already being met by a franchise 1000x more popular in Japan, so it's unlikely they're gonna pick this up so close to it's release.

For one, its not a portable title. That quarters its potential. MH is famous for local co-op in cafes and the like.

The only reason MHW pre orders are so big is because of the sheer size of the fandom and thus, the large number of hardcore fans.

Remember: a realese on the vita tends to sell better than a STEAM game in japan.

Rainbow Six: Siege was marketed as an eSport, which eventually caught on in Japan as the game grew in popularity. ARK and Monster Hunter may look similar in screenshots, but the two games are worlds apart when it comes to actual gameplay. The fact that a bigger publisher hasn't picked ARK up suggests that it's going to have a modest opening. It makes more sense to compare ARK to other western games published by Spike Chunsoft in Japan.

Average at best.

it got a lot of thumbs downs in a youtuve video 50%

Thanks for the replies. So we should keep our expectations for ark in Japan firmly in check.