This is to do with the prediction in my Sig. 

Comparing Wii sales and PS3 sales, this year in Others. 

Wii: 1,528,573

PS3: 1,394,303   

Difference: 134,270. This is over a 14 week period, so that translates in 9,591 more Wii's sold a week, than PS3's. 

The percentage difference between the PS3 and Wii sales is 8.78%, this year. This is within a 10% error margin, so they are statistically tied at this point. There are slight fluctuations from week to week in Wii sales. This suggests that there is minimal supply issues. Obviously nothing like the supply issues in NA, but demand isn't being 100% meet, like in Japan. 

If we assume that the next 28 weeks will be steady sales wise, this leaves the last 10 weeks of the year for the holiday/christmas boost. So going into the holiday period, sales should look like this for the year:

Wii: 4,585,719

PS3: 4,182,909 

This ignore major game releases such as, GTA4, MGS4, MKWii, WiiFit, SSBB etc.  Also price cuts (if any).

The last ten weeks accounted for roughly 42% of console sales last year in 'others'. Meaning, the sales after the first 42 weeks are 58% of the total for the whole year. 4,585,719/58 x100=7,906,412. 4,182,909/58 x100=7,211,912. This would mean, 2008 sales would look like this:

Wii: 7,906,412

PS3: 7,211,912

This would give a sales percentage increase from 2007 to 2008 of:

Wii: +49%

PS3: +99%

The PS3 released in Europe at the end of march, so that percentage increase is slightly skewed (it should be slightly lower). So the PS3 has a much higher year on year percentage increase, but the Wii still outsells it (but its with a 10% error margin). At the end of 2008, sales should look like this: 

Wii: 13,973,607

PS3: 10,837,783

So at the end of 2008, the Wii should have a lead of roughly 3M units. However, the PS3 has the larger year on year percentage increase.

Conclusion: Given the year on year percentage increase, I think the PS3 will overcome the 3M units it currently trails the Wii by. By the end of the generation, the Wii and PS3 should be statically tied for first place in 'Others'. 

What do you think of my analysis? Better than Patcher?

More importantly, what do you think of my conclusion? agree, disagree?

Discuss... 

Good anyalisis however it suggests there will be no shift in support from one console to another in Others by developers and what not.

i expect ps3 to outsell wii in its lifetime in otehrs

Using percentage increases instead of increases in real terms is Example 1 of "How to Lie with Statistics."

Basically when you start from a low number, it's much, much easier to see a high-percentage increase. The conclusion is flawed, never mind the matter of extrapolating a full lifetime cycle from a year's worth of data.

@rudyrsr8

Yeah, I didn't take game releases into account. I think this will be the first generation where all 3 consoles will get nearly equal support.

Better than pachter, but then that's not saying much. :)

 thanks :)

Are you sure that is what you think will happen rather than what you want to happen?

As well as the PS3 is selling in "The Others" regions it has yet to outsell the Wii over any reasonable period of time inspite of receiving a (fairly major) price reduction; the PS3 may or may not be able to outsell the Wii in the future, but there is nothing that says that it will.

 But PS3 sales were not that low in 2007 for 'others'. It outsold the 360 in 'others' last year.

Well if the current trend continues for the rest of the generation, the Wii and PS3 will be pretty much statistically tied anyway. There are other factors to take into account. Also the Playstation/Sony brand is so strong in Europe compared to Nintendo.

But the percentage increases do favour the PS3.