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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo's Stock: Values Keep Rising

Teeqoz said:
Hedra42 said:

Thanks. It's only fair to provide supporting info when calling someone out for being wrong.

Although it should be noted that Game and Network has the highest positive percentage change from 2015 to 2016, and in terms of operating income, is not far behind Finance. The rest are way behind.

Like I said, it is one of the best performing segments, and I think it'll probably become the best performing segment (in fact Sony forecasts that for FY17), but it's not the only money maker. Their forecast for FY17 has Gaming at 180 Bn yen operating income, with the whole company at 500 Bn yen. And even then, that is misleading, because they are forecasting one segment (corporate and elimination, which I guess is basically management, accounting, legal fees and loads of other stuff) to lose 200 Bn, and the other segments making 700 Bn, giving a net result of 500 Bn. So of those 700 Bn in positive operating income, Playstation contributes 180 Bn, or about 25%.

I will refer you to Videogameaccountant's post directly above this one as it is much better researched and eloquent than I could possibly offer as a response.



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Hedra42 said:
Teeqoz said:

Like I said, it is one of the best performing segments, and I think it'll probably become the best performing segment (in fact Sony forecasts that for FY17), but it's not the only money maker. Their forecast for FY17 has Gaming at 180 Bn yen operating income, with the whole company at 500 Bn yen. And even then, that is misleading, because they are forecasting one segment (corporate and elimination, which I guess is basically management, accounting, legal fees and loads of other stuff) to lose 200 Bn, and the other segments making 700 Bn, giving a net result of 500 Bn. So of those 700 Bn in positive operating income, Playstation contributes 180 Bn, or about 25%.

I will refer you to Videogameaccountant's post directly above this one as it is much better researched and eloquent than I could possibly offer as a response.

His post basically repeats what I've been writing here anyway. Gaming is very important to Sony, but it's not the only important segment, unlike what Wyrdness claimed.



Teeqoz said:
Hedra42 said:

I will refer you to Videogameaccountant's post directly above this one as it is much better researched and eloquent than I could possibly offer as a response.

His post basically repeats what I've been writing here anyway. Gaming is very important to Sony, but it's not the only important segment, unlike what Wyrdness claimed.

I agree that Wyrdness's claim, when taken literally, is untrue.

But the points that Videogameaccountant made, such as:

- where the profit from Financials will most likely go

- how, despite having even larger profits, the Financials division couldn't save Sony a few years ago

- how Gaming profits makes up 75% of the next three profitable divisions

These all show how heavily reliant Sony is on the Gaming division to keep their heads above water, and that if it fell apart, they'd be in serious trouble, regardless of profits made by other divisions. This validates the point I think Wyrdness was trying to make.

Investors want a good return on their investments, and the 20.00 JPY dividend reported by Sony this year is part of that. If Videogameaccountant is right about the profit from Financials being ploughed back into investments, then you can bet that the reported dividend is mostly based on profits made from the Gaming division.



Hedra42 said:
Teeqoz said:

His post basically repeats what I've been writing here anyway. Gaming is very important to Sony, but it's not the only important segment, unlike what Wyrdness claimed.

I agree that Wyrdness's claim, when taken literally, is untrue.

But the points that Videogameaccountant made, such as:

- where the revenues from Financials will most likely go

- how, despite having even larger profits, the Financials division couldn't save Sony a few years ago

- how Gaming profits makes up 75% of the next three profitable divisions

These all show how heavily reliant Sony is on the Gaming division to keep their heads above water, and that if it fell apart, they'd be in serious trouble, regardless of profits made by other divisions, which validates the point I think Wyrdness was trying to make.

Investors want a good return on their investments, and the 20.00 JPY dividend reported by Sony this year is part of that. If Videogameaccountant is right about the profit from Financials being ploughed back into investments, then you can bet that the reported dividend is mostly based on profits made from the Gaming division.

The financials division is the reason Sony didn't go bankrupt a few years ago. If that doesn't qualify as "saving" then I don't know what does.

Revenues and Operating Income are two different things. As for the claim that much of Sony Financial's profit doesn't end up in investor's hands, that is easily disproven - Sony Financial Holdings is a separate, publicly traded entity of Sony, but Sony owns 63% of the shares. The "Financials" segment that Sony reports is the revenue and Operating Income of those 63% of Sony Financial Holdings. Sony Financial Holdings have a dividend payout ratio of over 50%, meaning that over 50% of their Net Income is paid out to investors by means of dividends. So it's not like that money has to be saved in case of later unforeseen circumstances - stuff like that is already taken into consideration before the dividend is set, and they still pay out over 50% (about 57% to be precise).

http://www.sonyfh.co.jp/en/financial_info/for_investor.html

Now, if you'll excuse me, I would like you to actually provide data from now on if you are going to dispute what I'm saying. Like you said, it's only fair to provide supporting info when calling someone out for being wrong, but I feel like I'm the only one actually using the numbers here.



Teeqoz said:
Hedra42 said:

I agree that Wyrdness's claim, when taken literally, is untrue.

But the points that Videogameaccountant made, such as:

- where the revenues from Financials will most likely go

- how, despite having even larger profits, the Financials division couldn't save Sony a few years ago

- how Gaming profits makes up 75% of the next three profitable divisions

These all show how heavily reliant Sony is on the Gaming division to keep their heads above water, and that if it fell apart, they'd be in serious trouble, regardless of profits made by other divisions, which validates the point I think Wyrdness was trying to make.

Investors want a good return on their investments, and the 20.00 JPY dividend reported by Sony this year is part of that. If Videogameaccountant is right about the profit from Financials being ploughed back into investments, then you can bet that the reported dividend is mostly based on profits made from the Gaming division.

The financials division is the reason Sony didn't go bankrupt a few years ago. If that doesn't qualify as "saving" then I don't know what does.

Revenues and Operating Income are two different things. As for the claim that much of Sony Financial's profit doesn't end up in investor's hands, that is easily disproven - Sony Financial Holdings is a separate, publicly traded entity of Sony, but Sony owns 63% of the shares. The "Financials" segment that Sony reports is the revenue and Operating Income of those 63% of Sony Financial Holdings. Sony Financial Holdings have a dividend payout ratio of over 50%, meaning that over 50% of their Net Income is paid out to investors by means of dividends. So it's not like that money has to be saved in case of later unforeseen circumstances - stuff like that is already taken into consideration before the dividend is set, and they still pay out over 50% (about 57% to be precise).

http://www.sonyfh.co.jp/en/financial_info/for_investor.html

Now, if you'll excuse me, I would like you to actually provide data from now on if you are going to dispute what I'm saying. Like you said, it's only fair to provide supporting info when calling someone out for being wrong, but I feel like I'm the only one actually using the numbers here.

I'm simply reiterating the points made in Videogameaccountant's post and explaining why they'd validate the point I think Wyrdness was trying to make.

That point was highlighting the substantial importance of the Gaming division for Sony at the moment, and it was made in the context of comparing how Sony and Nintendo would each fare, based on their structures, should either of their Gaming hardware divisions go wrong.

You have even acknowledged yourself, that the Gaming division is important to Sony.

And I have already agreed with you, (in the post you have in fact quoted) that if taken literally, Wyrdness's statement about PS being the sole source of money is factually wrong. So I do not need to provide you with any supporting info, because I'm not disputing anything.

I will, however, provide the link confirming the 20.00 JPY reported dividend for Sony Corp, as this was the only additional information I injected into the discussion. https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=6758

If you feel like you're the only one using the numbers, then I suggest you go back to Videogameaccountant's response. It clearly uses the numbers on the chart you provided to back up some of his argument. I also made reference to your chart on an earlier post. If you need further supporting info to back up any of the points Videogameaccountant made, I would suggest that you ask him.

If you're now saying that the 'Financials' segment on the chart you provided pertains to a 63% share in Sony Financial Holdings, a separate, publicly traded entity, then I wasn't aware of this, which probably means that we could unnecessarily be arguing at cross purposes at this point.

(Edited to change incorrect link)



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Teeqoz said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

Your assessment is misleading. Lets look at the actual numbers.

Gaming and Network Services are #1 in terms of revenue and #2 in terms of operating income. In fact, in terms of both revenue and profit, this divisions blows the others (outside of Financial Services) out of the water. The next closest, home entertainment, only made 58.5 billion with a profit ratio of only 5 percent compared to Gaming 8 percent. When you combine the profit of music, image production and home entertainment, they make up about 180 billion as compared to gamings 135 billion. Its not good when one division makes up 75 percent of three other divisions. This doesn't even speak to the fact that three of these divisions are losing money (with one of them doing better this year if you can beleive that).

Also, the insurance business is based on taking premiums and reinvesting them to build a cushion. The profit it makes will likely go back to buying more investments in case Sony has to pay out a lot (like a missile hitting Tokyo and killing a lot of people, for instance). 

So no, not every single dollar is coming from gaming (no one was saying that anyway). But of all of Sony's divisions, gaming is what is doing well. The problem is this industry is very volitile. Nintendo has stated this is why they have so much cash. Sony had loses in 2013 and 2014 and in those years and insurance didn't save them (in fact, that divisions had higher operating profit in those years). And many of these divisions that were doing well this year had loses in those years. This is what everyone is talking about. The only division worth its weight is gaming as the others, besides maybe music and finance, have been dragging the company down. If the PS5 doesn't nail the landing, Sony could be in very hot water with worse credit than they were at the begining of the Great Recession.

The person I replied to did literally say "all their money solely comes from the PS side of things right now". And I can allow for some exaggeration for dramatic effect, but that statement is far enough from the truth that I called it out.

As for Playstation being a very important segment for Sony, I haven't claimed otherwise, which you would know if you read what I've written in this thread, but Playstation is not close to being the only well performing segment. You have Financials, Music, Semiconductors (which had a bad year in 2016 due to the earthquake in Japan, but is forecast to be back at 100 bn Yen Operating Income this year) all of which are performing well, and some of the other electronic divisions are also doing decently.

Your response was very literal arguing that other divisions make money for Sony so gaming isn't the biggest division. Yes, other divisions make money for Sony and no one is disagreeing with that premise. What you are ignoring is the level of earnings those other divisions are making. Outside of Finance, the other divisions either make very little or are losing money. No one is literaly saying that gaming is the only sector making money; Just that it's bringing in the most revenue and has the best prospects for growth.

But since you mentioed Financal Services as the big earner, let's talk about that. Finance industries (like banking and insurance) function around managing inflows and outflows. In insurance, it's about taking in premiums and paying out claims. The excess is invested to manage liquidity and earnings to ensure the company can meet claims that come due. The issue is that Financial Services can come save the day if something happens to the other businesses. Since Financial Services has to manage their own risk and payout models, they can't use their excess liquidity to bail out gaming if a PS5 goes south. Moreover, the sector, while profitable, isn't seeing huge growth. Earnings seems to be coming from improvements in the market. Japan has an upsidedown population, so the future prospects of life insurance are iffy as the company may have to pay out more than it takes in from those still alive. 

And this means alot for liquidity too. Sony has a lot of their assets in investments, but these may be for the insurance business. Again, that sector is taking the premiums and investing the excess for a rainy day (for a lack of a better term). They can't just liquiditate it to pay for other debt as they may expect more claims in future periods or using it as a cushion in case there are a lot of unexpected claims. Any assessment of Sony's liquidity should include this. This means the liquidity available to the rest of the company may be a lot less than was originally mentioned. Moreover, if Sony runs into problems, its more likely financial services will be spun off into its own thing rather than riding in on a white horse to save the other failing businesses.

And, again, the issue with Sony as a whole is, outside of gaming, there isn't much room for growth. Sony TVs lag. The movie business keeps having flops. Sony doesn't have a competitive phone and businesses like semiconductors have been losing money. Compare this to Nintendo where the company has improving earning, outstanding liquidity, and more opprotunities to make money by licensing their huge array of IPs. 

I am getting off topic a bit, but the problem you have is you assume some businesses making money means that Sony ins't reliant on games for growth and earnings. Financial Services, as I mentioned, should be considered its own thing(I think the historical data breaks it out), a few businesses make some profit and a lot of businesses are lagging and dragging everyone else down. Gaming is mentioned because it makes a lot of money and its an industry Sony is very compatitive in (best selling 8th gen console). This is what everyone means.



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VideoGameAccountant said:
Teeqoz said:

The person I replied to did literally say "all their money solely comes from the PS side of things right now". And I can allow for some exaggeration for dramatic effect, but that statement is far enough from the truth that I called it out.

As for Playstation being a very important segment for Sony, I haven't claimed otherwise, which you would know if you read what I've written in this thread, but Playstation is not close to being the only well performing segment. You have Financials, Music, Semiconductors (which had a bad year in 2016 due to the earthquake in Japan, but is forecast to be back at 100 bn Yen Operating Income this year) all of which are performing well, and some of the other electronic divisions are also doing decently.

 

And, again, the issue with Sony as a whole is, outside of gaming, there isn't much room for growth. Sony TVs lag. The movie business keeps having flops. Sony doesn't have a competitive phone and businesses like semiconductors have been losing money. Compare this to Nintendo where the company has improving earning, outstanding liquidity, and more opprotunities to make money by licensing their huge array of IPs. 

I am getting off topic a bit, but the problem you have is you assume some businesses making money means that Sony ins't reliant on games for growth and earnings. Financial Services, as I mentioned, should be considered its own thing(I think the historical data breaks it out), a few businesses make some profit and a lot of businesses are lagging and dragging everyone else down. Gaming is mentioned because it makes a lot of money and its an industry Sony is very compatitive in (best selling 8th gen console). This is what everyone means.

Except I don't lol. I have said repeatedly in this thread that gaming is a very important segment for Sony, and that it will become the highest earning segment soon.... it's kind of amusing to read this because you are literally assigning me thoughts and positions which completely reject what I've actually written in the thread.

As for how literal Wyrdness was, I can't be sure, but judging from his posts in this thread (including this statement: ""Sony's other business ventures right now are a sink holf for money from their electronics, phones and even movies are on shakey ground.") To me, they illustrate a thorough misunderstanding of what Sony's situation actually is and has been. But maybe I'm just taking him too literal and he's being overly dramatic, but somehow, I don't think what Wyrdness meant when he said "all their money solely comes from the PS side of things right now" was actually "About 25% of the total positive operating income comes from Playstation".

Also, this was never a discussion about wether Sony or Nintendo should be higher valued lol, so I don't know why you're trying to convice me of that. Never argued that.



Teeqoz said:
VideoGameAccountant said:

 

And, again, the issue with Sony as a whole is, outside of gaming, there isn't much room for growth. Sony TVs lag. The movie business keeps having flops. Sony doesn't have a competitive phone and businesses like semiconductors have been losing money. Compare this to Nintendo where the company has improving earning, outstanding liquidity, and more opprotunities to make money by licensing their huge array of IPs. 

I am getting off topic a bit, but the problem you have is you assume some businesses making money means that Sony ins't reliant on games for growth and earnings. Financial Services, as I mentioned, should be considered its own thing(I think the historical data breaks it out), a few businesses make some profit and a lot of businesses are lagging and dragging everyone else down. Gaming is mentioned because it makes a lot of money and its an industry Sony is very compatitive in (best selling 8th gen console). This is what everyone means.

Except I don't lol. I have said repeatedly in this thread that gaming is a very important segment for Sony, and that it will become the highest earning segment soon.... it's kind of amusing to read this because you are literally assigning me thoughts and positions which completely reject what I've actually written in the thread.

As for how literal Wyrdness was, I can't be sure, but judging from his posts in this thread (including this statement: ""Sony's other business ventures right now are a sink holf for money from their electronics, phones and even movies are on shakey ground.") To me, they illustrate a thorough misunderstanding of what Sony's situation actually is and has been. But maybe I'm just taking him too literal and he's being overly dramatic, but somehow, I don't think what Wyrdness meant when he said "all their money solely comes from the PS side of things right now" was actually "About 25% of the total positive operating income comes from Playstation".

Also, this was never a discussion about wether Sony or Nintendo should be higher valued lol, so I don't know why you're trying to convice me of that. Never argued that.

Your arguments have been "Look, other divisions make money, so it's not just gaming." At the same time, you message the numbers to fit your conclusion. Look at the bold. Only 25 percent of Sony's operating income comes from Playstation (its more like 30). So of Sony's 10 or so divisions, 1 is making a quarter of the operating income for the company as a whole. And to the guy you originally quoted, if Playstation has a bad year and has a lose, that sends Sony's straight into the red. No other division could do that. And if finance is a subsidiary, it means the income Sony is reporting is not the true cash flow they are getting. If the pay out is 50 percent, then the actual money Sony is getting could be as little as half of what is reported in the slide you showed earlier. If you remove finance, Gaming makes up about 38 percent of all operating profit (of the profitable divisions). And this says nothing to the fact that numerous divisions are losing money.

The problem is you see trees but not the forest. You point out that other divisions are making money but don't look at them as a whole. The only division that is competitive with Gaming, in terms of both profit and revenue, is Finance and if this is a sub it means Sony only gets what they pay out in dividends. In terms of growth, the only divisions with growth in both revenue and operating income was Gaming and Finance, and Gaming has far stronger growth. 5 divisions had a decline in revenue. Look at this in comparison to net income. Sony only made 73 billion yen for FY 16. Music's operating income was 75 billion. If it had a net loss, earnings could still be saved if slack is picked up by other sectors and they have a good year. Gaming, on the other hand, made 135 billion yen. If it went in the red, the company would be in serious trouble. This is also bad when you consider Sony's has historically sold their systems at a loss and they'll need to release the PS5 before too long or lose out to Nintendo and the growing PC market. 

Your original comment was that "The narrative that the only segment of Sony currently doing well is Playstation is quite wrong." When you look at growth and total revenue/profit, that doesn't seem to be the case.

(as an aside, I think Hedra's point on dividend payout was good)

 

If music has a bad year, the company will be fine. If gaming has a bad year, it means Sony's financial results (and its stock price) will be a disaster. You say everyone else misunderstand's Sony's possition but you never considered that gaming is what is driving the company's profits.



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Teeqoz said:
Hedra42 said:

I will refer you to Videogameaccountant's post directly above this one as it is much better researched and eloquent than I could possibly offer as a response.

His post basically repeats what I've been writing here anyway. Gaming is very important to Sony, but it's not the only important segment, unlike what Wyrdness claimed.

Where did I say it's the only important segment? I highlighted how dependent they are on the gaming side of things to the point that right now it practically negates the performance of other segments, remove the gaming side of things and all of a sudden the numbers Sony present to investors become a troubling sight hence why I even reference if they had another PS3 debacle the trouble it could bring.

Others have addressed the situation pretty much, the fact that one segment makes around 30% of the income out of 10 divisions even backs what I'm highlighting, if Sony had similar performances from other divisions next year only with gaming making no money that missing 30% would turn heads and the would be problems and the stock would drop significantly to reflect that.



VideoGameAccountant said:
Teeqoz said:

Except I don't lol. I have said repeatedly in this thread that gaming is a very important segment for Sony, and that it will become the highest earning segment soon.... it's kind of amusing to read this because you are literally assigning me thoughts and positions which completely reject what I've actually written in the thread.

As for how literal Wyrdness was, I can't be sure, but judging from his posts in this thread (including this statement: ""Sony's other business ventures right now are a sink holf for money from their electronics, phones and even movies are on shakey ground.") To me, they illustrate a thorough misunderstanding of what Sony's situation actually is and has been. But maybe I'm just taking him too literal and he's being overly dramatic, but somehow, I don't think what Wyrdness meant when he said "all their money solely comes from the PS side of things right now" was actually "About 25% of the total positive operating income comes from Playstation".

Also, this was never a discussion about wether Sony or Nintendo should be higher valued lol, so I don't know why you're trying to convice me of that. Never argued that.

Your arguments have been "Look, other divisions make money, so it's not just gaming." At the same time, you message the numbers to fit your conclusion. Look at the bold. Only 25 percent of Sony's operating income comes from Playstation (its more like 30). So of Sony's 10 or so divisions, 1 is making a quarter of the operating income for the company as a whole. And to the guy you originally quoted, if Playstation has a bad year and has a lose, that sends Sony's straight into the red. No other division could do that. And if finance is a subsidiary, it means the income Sony is reporting is not the true cash flow they are getting. If the pay out is 50 percent, then the actual money Sony is getting could be as little as half of what is reported in the slide you showed earlier. If you remove finance, Gaming makes up about 38 percent of all operating profit (of the profitable divisions). And this says nothing to the fact that numerous divisions are losing money.

The problem is you see trees but not the forest. You point out that other divisions are making money but don't look at them as a whole. The only division that is competitive with Gaming, in terms of both profit and revenue, is Finance and if this is a sub it means Sony only gets what they pay out in dividends. In terms of growth, the only divisions with growth in both revenue and operating income was Gaming and Finance, and Gaming has far stronger growth. 5 divisions had a decline in revenue. Look at this in comparison to net income. Sony only made 73 billion yen for FY 16. Music's operating income was 75 billion. If it had a net loss, earnings could still be saved if slack is picked up by other sectors and they have a good year. Gaming, on the other hand, made 135 billion yen. If it went in the red, the company would be in serious trouble. This is also bad when you consider Sony's has historically sold their systems at a loss and they'll need to release the PS5 before too long or lose out to Nintendo and the growing PC market. 

Your original comment was that "The narrative that the only segment of Sony currently doing well is Playstation is quite wrong." When you look at growth and total revenue/profit, that doesn't seem to be the case.

(as an aside, I think Hedra's point on dividend payout was good)

 

If music has a bad year, the company will be fine. If gaming has a bad year, it means Sony's financial results (and its stock price) will be a disaster. You say everyone else misunderstand's Sony's possition but you never considered that gaming is what is driving the company's profits.

Omfg I give up. I have said time and time again, that gaming is very important to Sony. If you remove gaming from Sony, they will be in a much worse state. How many times do I have to say this? All I'm saying is that also without gaming, Sony isn't completely screwed. They have other segments that are doing well, or at the very least decent. (Financials, Music, Semiconductors are doing well, despite semiconductors' recent woes from the Japan 2016 earthquake, while Movies, IP&S and H&ES are doing decent, again, despite the writedown (a one time cost) in the pictures division.)

If you seriously reply to this by again saying that I'm denying the importance of gaming to Sony, I'll stop replying, cause it's a waste of my time. But just so you get the message - yes, gaming is very important to Sony. Like I've been saying this whole thread. Jesus.

And as for your comment about massaging the numbers, 135.6/524.7=0.258, or 26%. I used 25% because it's a 4th which is a more natural size to talk about, but it certainly isn't 30%.... lol... talk about massaging the numbers.