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Forums - Sales - Third-Person Shooters Sales Analysis - How is the genre trending based on major franchises sales

atma998 said:
potato_hamster said:

Of course. You should use as accurate data as you can. That means not using VGC because they don't count digital sales. If you're going to include games that were released before the advent of digital sales and compare them to current games and excluding what could amount to 20-30% of the sales of those games, then you're not actually representing the data accurately are you? If you're going to make such an assumptions, you should at least acknowledge the flaws in the data acquired and include that in the original post.

I'm guessing at this point you never did so hot in science or any type of analysis work, did you?

You could not resist being condescending, don't you? Also a big lol for not using VGC numbers on VGC site. Don't take it personal but I think you're on the wrong site dude.

Or.. get this.. I can acknowledge that VGC's software sales data isn't accurate for any title on a console with digital sales. Problem solved. Not exactly worth losing sleep over is it? I mean it's not an issue at all unless someone is pretending the sales data is accurate, is it?



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Ka-pi96 said:
atma998 said:

The problem is when I take them, like for example adding Uncharted to the graph, some people are complaining it should not be in there.

Bad if you do bad if you don't I guess. I can only conclude that I cannot please everyone. That's a thing, I can live with this. But people being overly agressive just because the analysis is not 100% as they would like it to do...wow, just wow! Some people should get a life, truely. We are just discussing about trending in sales of some videogame should I remind.

Should I remind also that no one suggested a better graph with specific franchises to include that actually share the same genre as a TPS. No one. Clearly easier just to complain.

Ok, you want some constructive criticism? Here you go...

You really need to define third-person shooter, and include all games that fit that definition. People may criticise your definition still, but at least if they say "why wasn't x game included" you can point to it and say "because it didn't meet these criteria". As it is you seem to be trying to say some games weren't included because "they aren't primarily a third-person shooter", yet at the same time include games that aren't primarily third-person shooters, but you don't even say what makes something primarily a third-person shooter. I think it's fair to say Resident Evil (survival horror), Mass Effect (RPG) & Metal Gear Solid (Stealth) aren't primarily third-person shooters, so if they are included why can't other games that share genres such as Grand Theft Auto & Tomb Raider be included?

Games shouldn't have to be part of long running franchises to be included. If you really want to show how a whole genre is performing sales wise then both one off games and new IPs which haven't yet received sequels should be there too. Where's Splatoon? The Division?

Perhaps the most important thing, which somebody else already mentioned is that your x axis really should be release years or something. As it is you've got games that released over a decade apart on the same point of the axis, so clearly that's not showing how the genre is trending over time.

And finally your conclusion doesn't match the data you're presenting. You're not looking at the genre overall or at how it has fared over time. All that you're showing is that some franchises have peaked and are now declining, while one (MGS) is fairly steady and another (Uncharted) is still showing growth. There's neither enough data there or a good enough presentation of data to try to analyse anything about the genre as a whole.

Fair enough. First of all thanks for explaning all this without the condescending tone or acting like an ass.

As I said, the main issue with my thread is the title, I should have said "How are the major franchises with a third-person perspective are trending". My graph had two objectives 1- Looking at the trending of the major TP franchises and 2- Looking at trending of the whole TPS genre. While it did worked well on the FPS side (first thread was received positively overall), the same formula did not worked well for TPS as some others said the TPS main franchises (or third-person perspective games if you prefer) offer a wide variety of different gameplay and thus, cannot be compared one to another sales wise.

That said, I'm still convinced that the whole shooter genre is not doing as good as it did 5 or 10 years ago. Gears of War, Mass Effect, Halo, Call of Duty shows signifiant decline in sales while Battlefield is steady. Sure there are new IPs doing great but they are only a small % of the market.



potato_hamster said:
atma998 said:

You could not resist being condescending, don't you? Also a big lol for not using VGC numbers on VGC site. Don't take it personal but I think you're on the wrong site dude.

Or.. get this.. I can acknowledge that VGC's software sales data isn't accurate for any title on a console with digital sales. Problem solved. Not exactly worth losing sleep over is it? I mean it's not an issue at all unless someone is pretending the sales data is accurate, is it?

No one is pretending the sales figures are 100% accurate on VGC. I've been a member for almost 10 years now and I never seen anyone pretending this.



atma998 said:
potato_hamster said:

Or.. get this.. I can acknowledge that VGC's software sales data isn't accurate for any title on a console with digital sales. Problem solved. Not exactly worth losing sleep over is it? I mean it's not an issue at all unless someone is pretending the sales data is accurate, is it?

No one is pretending the sales figures are 100% accurate on VGC. I've been a member for almost 10 years now and I never seen anyone pretending this.

There's a difference between pretending the sales figures are 100% accurate (nice hyperbole, no one has claimed this) and using VGC data as if it's reasonably accurate. You're putting up PS1 titles up with PS4 titles and saying "look at that decline" when in some cases, that "decline" is actually "sales are pretty much the same, except in more recent titles, people bought the game digitally in increasing numbers". Your data points misrepresent reality as a result because you're using a data source that is incomplete and failing to account for that.



Ka-pi96 said:
atma998 said:

Fair enough. First of all thanks for explaning all this without the condescending tone or acting like an ass.

As I said, the main issue with my thread is the title, I should have said "How are the major franchises with a third-person perspective are trending". My graph had two objectives 1- Looking at the trending of the major TP franchises and 2- Looking at trending of the whole TPS genre. While it did worked well on the FPS side (first thread was received positively overall), the same formula did not worked well for TPS as some others said the TPS main franchises (or third-person perspective games if you prefer) offer a wide variety of different gameplay and thus, cannot be compared one to another sales wise.

That said, I'm still convinced that the whole shooter genre is not doing as good as it did 5 or 10 years ago. Gears of War, Mass Effect, Halo, Call of Duty shows signifiant decline in sales while Battlefield is steady. Sure there are new IPs doing great but they are only a small % of the market.

I guess to really look at that you'd need to compare total sales of shooter games on a year to year basis. I'm not sure how that would work out. A small % of the market doing great isn't a new thing, just look at Call of Duty 5 or 10 years ago, there was nothing even close to it in sales. And even though that and other franchises may have declined they haven't ceased to exist so the newer ones are adding to what's there rather than simply replacing it. I don't know how sales of shooters overall would fare over the years, certainly the major franchises aren't as big as they were, can't help but wonder if part of that is because of a more diverse shooter market with fans more spreadout between games rather than concentrated on just a few massive franchises though.

Well in atma's FPS thread, someone made this post:

Farsala said:
I feel like this is more relevant.




Shooters have only gotten stronger as a genre as time goes on. All for NPD US sales. The real bleeders are for Sports, Fighting and Racing games.

FYI:
2013 Shooter %: 20%
2014 Shooter %: 21.7%
2015 Shooter %: 24.5%
2016 Shooter %: 27.5%


So atma already knows that the Shooter genre as a whole has actually grown by over 7% in the last 4 years in the US. He's still convinced however, it's on the decline because clasically popular shooter franchises have faded in popularity while he ignores the others that have taken their place.



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potato_hamster said:
Ka-pi96 said:

I guess to really look at that you'd need to compare total sales of shooter games on a year to year basis. I'm not sure how that would work out. A small % of the market doing great isn't a new thing, just look at Call of Duty 5 or 10 years ago, there was nothing even close to it in sales. And even though that and other franchises may have declined they haven't ceased to exist so the newer ones are adding to what's there rather than simply replacing it. I don't know how sales of shooters overall would fare over the years, certainly the major franchises aren't as big as they were, can't help but wonder if part of that is because of a more diverse shooter market with fans more spreadout between games rather than concentrated on just a few massive franchises though.

Well in atma's FPS thread, someone made this post:

Farsala said:
I feel like this is more relevant.




Shooters have only gotten stronger as a genre as time goes on. All for NPD US sales. The real bleeders are for Sports, Fighting and Racing games.

FYI:
2013 Shooter %: 20%
2014 Shooter %: 21.7%
2015 Shooter %: 24.5%
2016 Shooter %: 27.5%


So atma already knows that the Shooter genre as a whole has actually grown by over 7% in the last 4 years in the US. He's still convinced however, it's on the decline because clasically popular shooter franchises have faded in popularity while he ignores the others that have taken their place.

And you are aware those numbers are for US sales only and include games like Uncharted and MGS (quick go shitposting on his site for having scandalously included MGS into his shooter stats!!!)? But I guess you were not aware of this...



atma998 said:
potato_hamster said:

Well in atma's FPS thread, someone made this post:


So atma already knows that the Shooter genre as a whole has actually grown by over 7% in the last 4 years in the US. He's still convinced however, it's on the decline because clasically popular shooter franchises have faded in popularity while he ignores the others that have taken their place.

And you are aware those numbers are for US sales only and include games like Uncharted and MGS (quick go shitposting on his site for having scandalously included MGS into his shooter stats!!!)? But I guess you were not aware of this...

 Bolded for further evidence you don't read.

Source that MGS and Uncharted is included in the "shooter" genre?



potato_hamster said:
atma998 said:

And you are aware those numbers are for US sales only and include games like Uncharted and MGS (quick go shitposting on his site for having scandalously included MGS into his shooter stats!!!)? But I guess you were not aware of this...

 Bolded for further evidence you don't read.

Source that MGS and Uncharted is included in the "shooter" genre?

Dude, you're just terrible. You are accusing me of using incomplete datas, and you bring US only numbers. 

As for the source, I'm sure a resourceful guy with a lot of free time like you who can find the name of the author of a wikia page can find it by himself :)



atma998 said:
potato_hamster said:

 Bolded for further evidence you don't read.

Source that MGS and Uncharted is included in the "shooter" genre?

Dude, you're just terrible. You are accusing me of using incomplete datas, and you bring US only numbers. 

As for the source, I'm sure a resourceful guy with a lot of free time like you who can find the name of the author of a wikia page can find it by himself :)

So clearly then you have evidence that the genre as a whole sells less than it did 10 years ago since you're claiming that it has? Go ahead present the sales data from 2006 and 2016 then that clearly shows this. You don't actually have that evidence though, do you?

So you don't want to provide a source for your apparently baseless claims? Well from what I can find, there is no evidence that he did include MGS and Uncharted as a part of the Shooter category in that chart, and it's far more likely that you made that shit up because you're ethically bankrupt, just like you've made up other such nonsense in this thread. So put up or shut up. You're making the claim, it's on you to back it up.



potato_hamster said:
atma998 said:

Dude, you're just terrible. You are accusing me of using incomplete datas, and you bring US only numbers. 

As for the source, I'm sure a resourceful guy with a lot of free time like you who can find the name of the author of a wikia page can find it by himself :)

So clearly then you have evidence that the genre as a whole sells less than it did 10 years ago since you're claiming that it has? Go ahead present the sales data from 2006 and 2016 then that clearly shows this. You don't actually have that evidence though, do you?

So you don't want to provide a source for your apparently baseless claims? Well from what I can find, there is no evidence that he did include MGS and Uncharted as a part of the Shooter category in that chart, and it's far more likely that you made that shit up because you're ethically bankrupt, just like you've made up other such nonsense in this thread. So put up or shut up. You're making the claim, it's on you to back it up.

Gears of War, Mass Effect, Halo, Call of Duty showing signifiant decline speak for itself.

As for providing a source showing he included MGS and Uncharted into his datas, I won't because I don't want you to harass that poor guy. That said, these datas are still meaningless since they are US only.