Very telling that Switch is doing better at $300 than 3DS did at $170. And that's with 3DS getting two extra months (Jan and Feb) to boot.

Barring some catastrophe, Switch is pretty much a lock to outsell 3DS lifetime I reckon, it's just a much better and more appealing system. The whole portable/console thing is a much more attractive "gimmick" than 3D, its software library is off to a much better start and will almost certainly eclipse 3DS's completely in time, and it has far fewer hardware flaws. (One analogue stick, crappy C-stick on the New model, cheap build quality, 240p screen, etc)

Won't last due to the shortages though

If that wasn't the case, the Switch has a potential to do really well during Holiday 2017

Yeah the whole supply situation is kinda frustrating, makes you want to see how much it'd be beasting if it wasn't held back.

Yeah, that is indeed very interesting. It also changes the perspective we've had on handheld gaming completely. We took it for granted that handheld consoles were dead (3DS and Vita) and that they had no future, but maybe it was just that both products sucked pretty bad (both really expensive, both with really bad support at launch, 3DS incredibly underpowered even at the time, Vita memory cards, and the list goes on). 

If the Switch can keep the healthy sales coming, maybe Sony will look at a possible PS Portable 3 (Home console hybrid? Phone hybrid?). Though I think they shouldn't.

I'd say it's actually true that there's no real future for dedicated handhelds, and that Switch sidesteps this by being a hybrid rather than a dedicated portable, just as phones have evolved to be more than just devices for making calls. It's all part of the larger industry-wide shift to multipurpose devices over dedicated devices.

Take away the ability to dock with a TV and Switch wouldn't be selling anywhere near as well as it is.

Well take away the dock, the joy cons and all that and the price wouls also drop significantly.  I think that dedicated handhelds had life if Nintendo had wanted that.  3DS and Vita have crossed 80 mil and still going, could even crawl past 90 mil.  And that's with both having rough starts, one getting like 1 year of push from its maker, and the other having pretty bad marketing too compared to the DS, GBA, and GB/GBC.  Honestly, I think the actual market for handhelds is still around GBA levels.  The 7th gen was anomalous on all fronts but ESPECIALLY handhelds, driven by a neighboring market interested that has since found something that better suits their needs.  The people who want a premium on the go experience, the vast majority of them can't get what they want on phones.  Believe me, I tried.

And I don't think the build quality was ever cheap on the 3DS.  Components, sure, to an extent.  But it always felt plenty solid to me.  Plust the line is just old now.

I still think the Switch is a superior solution to on the go gaming in nearly every aspect that straight handhelds, the only disadvantage being size but even then it isn't that bad.

The thing about GBA though is that it was replaced after only 3 years on the market. 3DS/Vita got 6 years without replacement until Switch arrived.

Ultimately, the direction we're heading is clear; Nintendo have gone with the Switch hybrid concept instead of another dedicated portable, and Sony aren't making another one at all, so dedicated portables will die out with the 3DS. There isn't really any need for a dedicated portable in a market where Switch and smartphones exist.

I know the GBA was cut off early, I was accounting for that.  I would say had all things been left to their original paths, 110 mil or so would have been the GBA's final numbers.  Not dissimilar to the GB/GBC.  And I think if Sony and Nintendo had been on top of their game with the 3DS and Vita, similar numbers could have been seen.  But they weren't, of that there can be no doubt.

Oh I'm not saying that handhelds will persist now, but rather that their end wasn't for lack of demand.  Nintendo could have kept it going, but they went with a solution that would grab most of not all of the handheld market and also work its way into the console space.  There won't be another handheld because frankly the only company that knew how to work that market has moved on to a different approach. 

I dunno, I still think that if Nintendo had made another dedicated portable it would have sold less than the 3DS, as smartphone competition is much stronger now than in the early days of 3DS and most kids grow up on that now instead of getting a portable, while the market as a whole is moving away from dedicated devices and has been for some time. Nintendo could have spent years and billions prolonging the decline, but thankfully they don't have to as the Switch manages to solve the problem.

I think it would have sold more, as the Vita wouls die and all devs who wanted a premium market to sell their games in handheld would only have one option.  So the few strong Vita IPs would likely migrate there in time.  And Nintendo's market is 1000% better than 3DS and Wii U. 

Smartphone competition is really not the issue people think it is.  The damage it was going to do has mostly been done, scooping up people who never were all in on the dedicated gaming hardware thing, it's just that was the only option.  And 95% of those people were the new consumers of Gen 7.  If you want a handheld-style gaming experience, phones are a pretty miserable choice.  Few devs pushing the hardware, most who are are just poor man's versions of console games (Modern Combat, Asphalt, N.O.V.A, etc), freemium model overrunning the market to the point kf toxicity and to the extreme detriment of game design, overly simplistic gameplay, lack oh physical inputs.  Seriously, it's a shoddy substitute.  It's a competitor on paper, but the handheld and mobile market are radically different in practice.

I don't know if it would habe hit the over 90 mil mark.  As for kids growing up more mobile than handheld, I think what you are really seeing is more kids growing up playing on the go in general.  Hundreds of millions of people young and old game on mobile that never ever would have touched a handheld.  As a result, yeah, of course they outnumber handheld owners.  But they were never going to buy one to begin with.  How many sales were actually *taken* and how many are sales to entirely new customers.  It's hard to quantify.  

Also, I think Nintendo, with the right marketing, could have instrumented some countermeasures against the mobile gaming market with children.  I mean, mobile games are some of the most nakedly psychologically manipulative products on the market and I sure as hell wouldn't let my kid play most mobile games.  It would have been work, but I think it could be done.  And I definitely think they could have picked up some more adults as well.

The Switch is still I think a superior solution, mainly because I think it allows them to do things handhelds could not.  But I think handhelds could have held their ground.