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Forums - Sales - Blu-rays sale percentage tracking

Noobie on 06 December 2009
jlauro said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
What's bizarre to say the least is that some nay sayers claim BD won't displace DVD because it will be surpassed by a not even fully defined yet newer and better format. But won't this new format have an even harder time than BD, as it will have to start from zero, like any other new format, but fighting against BD and DVD combined?
It's obvious that sooner or later a new format will replace BD, but it will have to walk all its long way to do it, just like DVD did and BD is doing, there's no recipe for easy short cut, unless they give the new and initially very expensive HW needed for free.

You could claim it would be unlikely, but bizarre, no way...  History is full of "formats" that were out for years and never took off enough and were completely overwhelmed by something that came later and had to start from 0.  Blu Ray already has more market penetration than most such examples, but be objective...  it's been out 4 years (3 if you ignore the 1st that was diffuclt to get) and only has 8% of the households (and that is being extremely generous counting PS3s too which outnumber all other Blu Ray players combined) compared to DVD.  Let's say the adoption rate only doubles during the next 3 years for another 16% more, or 24% total.  Plenty of room for a new technology to take over...

Now that Blu Ray players are easily under $150 (under $100 for sales), adoption rate may skyrocket.  However, it might not...  It's bizarre to me to assume that it's a given that it will.  I am not saying that BD won't displace DVD, only that it's not a sure thing that it will...

You know u r forgetting 1 point.. the studio support.. currently all studio are supporting Blu Ray and almost more than 50% of the new releases (n more than 80% of the top 20 each week ) are released on Blu Ray day n date with DVD. Some genre are showing pretty impressive results also.. action/thriller package media has over 25% sales on Blu Ray.

So definitely a new technology is going to over take Blu Ray, but when n which one is still to be decided. One of the deciding factor for the failure of the other format war was the support. But as of now we know that all blockbuster movies from all studios are going to be on Blu Ray. So i dont see its failing.. All games on PS3 are on blu Ray, so there is already lot of demand in consumer also lot of awareness about Blu Ray.

PC is one front on which Blu Ray is seriously lagging but i think its not that important anymore, as i myself dont use either DVD or CD, rather prefer portable HDD or flash.

Lastly the curve of adoption of any technology is never linear.. i believe from 10 it will be jumping to 25 n then 55 within 2 yrs..i believe by the Black Friday of 2011 Blu Ray will be selling more than 50% of the total packaged media sale of Movies..



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Lostplanet22 on 06 December 2009

I guess we also should have numbers from others countries. How is blu Ray doing in Europe? Japan etc.



 

letsdance on 06 December 2009
jlauro said:
letsdance said:
Oh you can. and LOL @ transformers... a movie that was HD exclusive to HD-DVD as an example... again.. keep reaching.

 

I don't care what it was.  The fact is it's available on both DVD and Blu Ray now, and it's selling better on DVD.  Time will tell, and and 3 years is a long time.  Keep hoping Blu Ray market share picks up.  Keep reaching.


Because we should forget about the one year headstart DVD had... lol... keep trying its ratrher pathetic... but at least im getting a good laugh



joeorc on 09 December 2009
jlauro said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
 

And how expensive will those be in 2012 when, yes, Blu-Ray will have a significant install base and a lot of people will be invested in it?  Will it be time for people to upgrade by then?  Who knows, but I'm thinking no.  Whatever is next will be the true niche high-quality disc, because by then digital download will be much more developed, and can deliver higher quality.  Who knows, maybe some afficianados will jump at them, but to me, I don't see much market for resolutions above 1080p/lossless audio if the discs cost more.

I challenge you to come up with a coherent explanation of why people wouldn't move to higher quality Blu-Ray but WILL move to even higher quality holographic.  Especially when HDTVs only go up to 1080p.  And people even say that unless you have a big set, you don't even need 1080p.  Nope, holographic disc movies will always, always be niche compared to Blu-Ray.  It's an open question whether studios will even produce movies on them. 

 

That's actually my point.  Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012.  Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not.  If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray.  We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray.  Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.

I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format.  However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.

lol..I just have to bring up the point.

you do know that Blu-Ray is also an HOLOGRAPHIC disc based technology!

it's over.

if anything the last mainstream optical format for movies will be based on the core technology of disc based format's of DVD

Blu-Ray player's still play DVD's, and what if ever optical format replaces Blu-Ray will still be based on the core technology of DVD, AND STILL PLAY both DVD AND Blu-Ray disc's.

That's if EVER. 

IT'S A MOOT POINT BLU-RAY will never take over DVD

because it was not designed too from the start it was designed to Absorb DVD. the same May happen to Blu-Ray way later down the road

the optical format's still play VCD's, CD's.

its the very same core technology that keep's the other Viable and it make's sure the new technology stay's the standard for year's to come.

So

to keep the point , DVD is going to remain , Blu-ray is going to remain an CD is going to remain

Thus, Blu-ray does not have to "HURRY" up and take over DVD because it WILL Replace DVD anyway because Blu-Ray is also a DVD

BLU-RAY IS ALSO A FORM OF DVD.

IT WAS DESIGNED TO ABSORB DVD RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...NOT REPLACE IT.

because DVD is a standard that there is no need to replace., you just need to make DVD better

and that is what Blu-Ray is a better DVD format.

thus Since ALL BLU-RAY PLAYER'S STILL PLAY THE DVD FORMAT.

BLU-RAY HAS ALREADY DONE WHAT IT WAS DESIGNED TO DO FROM THE GET GO.



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Vetteman94 on 10 December 2009
joeorc said:
jlauro said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
 

And how expensive will those be in 2012 when, yes, Blu-Ray will have a significant install base and a lot of people will be invested in it?  Will it be time for people to upgrade by then?  Who knows, but I'm thinking no.  Whatever is next will be the true niche high-quality disc, because by then digital download will be much more developed, and can deliver higher quality.  Who knows, maybe some afficianados will jump at them, but to me, I don't see much market for resolutions above 1080p/lossless audio if the discs cost more.

I challenge you to come up with a coherent explanation of why people wouldn't move to higher quality Blu-Ray but WILL move to even higher quality holographic.  Especially when HDTVs only go up to 1080p.  And people even say that unless you have a big set, you don't even need 1080p.  Nope, holographic disc movies will always, always be niche compared to Blu-Ray.  It's an open question whether studios will even produce movies on them. 

 

That's actually my point.  Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012.  Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not.  If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray.  We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray.  Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.

I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format.  However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.

lol..I just have to bring up the point.

you do know that Blu-Ray is also an HOLOGRAPHIC disc based technology!

it's over.

if anything the last mainstream optical format for movies will be based on the core technology of disc based format's of DVD

Blu-Ray player's still play DVD's, and what if ever optical format replaces Blu-Ray will still be based on the core technology of DVD, AND STILL PLAY both DVD AND Blu-Ray disc's.

That's if EVER. 

IT'S A MOOT POINT BLU-RAY will never take over DVD

because it was not designed too from the start it was designed to Absorb DVD. the same May happen to Blu-Ray way later down the road

the optical format's still play VCD's, CD's.

its the very same core technology that keep's the other Viable and it make's sure the new technology stay's the standard for year's to come.

So

to keep the point , DVD is going to remain , Blu-ray is going to remain an CD is going to remain

Thus, Blu-ray does not have to "HURRY" up and take over DVD because it WILL Replace DVD anyway because Blu-Ray is also a DVD

BLU-RAY IS ALSO A FORM OF DVD.

IT WAS DESIGNED TO ABSORB DVD RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...NOT REPLACE IT.

because DVD is a standard that there is no need to replace., you just need to make DVD better

and that is what Blu-Ray is a better DVD format.

thus Since ALL BLU-RAY PLAYER'S STILL PLAY THE DVD FORMAT.

BLU-RAY HAS ALREADY DONE WHAT IT WAS DESIGNED TO DO FROM THE GET GO.


Blu-ray is not a holographic disc based technology.  Holographic discs uses multiple lasers, I think only 2 currently, focused into one laser to read the disc.   Blu-ray players and readers only have one laser from start to finish.   I would comment on the rest of your post but none of it makes any sense.



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Alby_da_Wolf on 10 December 2009

^^
IIRC there are systems using only one laser emitter and a system of prisms, mirrors and filters to split the beam and shift the phase of one of the two output beams.



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joeorc on 11 December 2009
Vetteman94 said:
joeorc said:
jlauro said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
 

And how expensive will those be in 2012 when, yes, Blu-Ray will have a significant install base and a lot of people will be invested in it?  Will it be time for people to upgrade by then?  Who knows, but I'm thinking no.  Whatever is next will be the true niche high-quality disc, because by then digital download will be much more developed, and can deliver higher quality.  Who knows, maybe some afficianados will jump at them, but to me, I don't see much market for resolutions above 1080p/lossless audio if the discs cost more.

I challenge you to come up with a coherent explanation of why people wouldn't move to higher quality Blu-Ray but WILL move to even higher quality holographic.  Especially when HDTVs only go up to 1080p.  And people even say that unless you have a big set, you don't even need 1080p.  Nope, holographic disc movies will always, always be niche compared to Blu-Ray.  It's an open question whether studios will even produce movies on them. 

 

That's actually my point.  Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012.  Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not.  If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray.  We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray.  Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.

I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format.  However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.

lol..I just have to bring up the point.

you do know that Blu-Ray is also an HOLOGRAPHIC disc based technology!

it's over.

if anything the last mainstream optical format for movies will be based on the core technology of disc based format's of DVD

Blu-Ray player's still play DVD's, and what if ever optical format replaces Blu-Ray will still be based on the core technology of DVD, AND STILL PLAY both DVD AND Blu-Ray disc's.

That's if EVER. 

IT'S A MOOT POINT BLU-RAY will never take over DVD

because it was not designed too from the start it was designed to Absorb DVD. the same May happen to Blu-Ray way later down the road

the optical format's still play VCD's, CD's.

its the very same core technology that keep's the other Viable and it make's sure the new technology stay's the standard for year's to come.

So

to keep the point , DVD is going to remain , Blu-ray is going to remain an CD is going to remain

Thus, Blu-ray does not have to "HURRY" up and take over DVD because it WILL Replace DVD anyway because Blu-Ray is also a DVD

BLU-RAY IS ALSO A FORM OF DVD.

IT WAS DESIGNED TO ABSORB DVD RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...NOT REPLACE IT.

because DVD is a standard that there is no need to replace., you just need to make DVD better

and that is what Blu-Ray is a better DVD format.

thus Since ALL BLU-RAY PLAYER'S STILL PLAY THE DVD FORMAT.

BLU-RAY HAS ALREADY DONE WHAT IT WAS DESIGNED TO DO FROM THE GET GO.


Blu-ray is not a holographic disc based technology.  Holographic discs uses multiple lasers, I think only 2 currently, focused into one laser to read the disc.   Blu-ray players and readers only have one laser from start to finish.   I would comment on the rest of your post but none of it makes any sense.

umm, yes it is. Its 

as a matter of fact:

HVD is not the only technology in high-capacity, optical storage media. InPhase Technologiesis developing a rival holographic format called Tapestry Media, which they claim will eventually store 1.6 TB with a data transfer rate of 120 MB/s, and several companies are developing TB-level discs based on 3D optical data storage technology. Such large optical storage capacities compete favorably with the Blu-ray Disc format. However, holographic drives are projected to initially cost around US$15,000, and a single disc around US$120–180, although prices are expected to fall steadily.[4] The market for this format is not initially the common consumer, but enterprises with very large storage needs.

he Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an optical disc technology that, in the future, may hold up to 1PB (petabyte) of information, although the current maximum is 10TB. It employs a technique known as collinear holography, whereby two green laser beams are collimated in a single beam. The green laser reads data encoded as laser interference fringes from a holographic layer near the top of the disc. A Blue laser is used same as Blu ray as the reference beam to read servoinformation from a regular CD-style aluminum layer near the bottom. Servoinformation is used to monitor the position of the read head over the disc, similar to the head, track, and sector information on a conventional hard disk drive. On a CD or DVD this servoinformation is interspersed amongst the data.

A dichroic mirror layer between the holographic data and the servo data reflects thegreen laser while letting the red laser pass through. This prevents interference from refraction of the green laser off the servo data pits and is an advance over past holographic storage media, which either experienced too much interference, or lacked the servo data entirely, making them incompatible with current CD and DVD drive technology.[1] These discs have the capacity to hold up to 6  (TB) of information. The HVD also has a transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s (125 MB/s). Sony, Philips, TDK, Panasonic and Optware all plan to release 1 TB capacity discs in 2019 while Maxell plans one for early 2020 with a capacity of 500 GB and transfer rate of 20 MB/s—although HVD standards were approved and published on June 28, 2007, no company has released an HVD as of November 2009.

 

As of August 2009, the HVD Forum comprised these corporations:

Some members of the Blu-ray Disc Association

 

On December 9, 2004 at its 88th General Assembly the standards body Ecma International created Technical Committee 44, dedicated to standardizing HVD formats based on Optware's technology. On June 11, 2007, TC44 published the first two HVD standards:[5] ECMA-377,[6] defining a 200 GB HVD "recordable cartridge" and ECMA-378,[7] defining a 100 GB HVD-ROM disc. Its next stated goals are 30 GB HVD cards and submission of these standards to the International Organization for Standardization for ISO approval.[8]

[9] New High Definition Video Technologies Road Map (2004-2010) From Maxell Corporation of America

 

AN I hope this can end this Debate About Holographic unseating Blu-Ray anytime soon

if anyone still think's HVD can anytime soon.

 please get it through your head

IT's over

HVD, digital downloads, or any other technology in the near future are not going to unseat Blu-Ray for the near future

the full CE companies all support Blu-Ray

the Entire Movie industry support's Blu-Ray

and Blu-Ray still support's standard DVD

IT'S OVER WITH AND DONE

BLU-RAY IS THE WINNER!

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

joeorc on 11 December 2009
Alby_da_Wolf said:
^^
IIRC there are systems using only one laser emitter and a system of prisms, mirrors and filters to split the beam and shift the phase of one of the two output beams.

yup:

and as a matter of fact

GE:

Globally Mobile writes"The Register has this article concerning GE's announcement that it has been developing a 1 terabyte DVD-size disk that can be read by a modified Blu-ray player. Peter Lorraine, GE's lab manager, talking at an Emerging Tech conference last week, said that license announcements could be expected soon. He also mentioned the notion of disks having the capacity of 100 Blu-ray disks, implying a 2.5TB or even 5TB capacity, gained by increasing the number of layers used for recording. The discs will be used for high-end commercial niches initially and then migrate to consumer markets in 2012-2015. Also here is a video of the technology explained. Wish we could see this sooner! Reminds me of the technology that Bowie's character came up with in The Man Who Fell to Earth."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXrJgXYq0Bk&feature=player_embedded

its holgraphic technology that can be read by a modified Blu-Ray player.

 

 



I AM BOLO

100% lover "nothing else matter's" after that...

ps:

Proud psOne/2/3/p owner.  I survived Aplcalyps3 and all I got was this lousy Signature.

Vetteman94 on 11 December 2009
joeorc said:
Vetteman94 said:
joeorc said:
jlauro said:
Loud_Hot_White_Box said:
 

And how expensive will those be in 2012 when, yes, Blu-Ray will have a significant install base and a lot of people will be invested in it?  Will it be time for people to upgrade by then?  Who knows, but I'm thinking no.  Whatever is next will be the true niche high-quality disc, because by then digital download will be much more developed, and can deliver higher quality.  Who knows, maybe some afficianados will jump at them, but to me, I don't see much market for resolutions above 1080p/lossless audio if the discs cost more.

I challenge you to come up with a coherent explanation of why people wouldn't move to higher quality Blu-Ray but WILL move to even higher quality holographic.  Especially when HDTVs only go up to 1080p.  And people even say that unless you have a big set, you don't even need 1080p.  Nope, holographic disc movies will always, always be niche compared to Blu-Ray.  It's an open question whether studios will even produce movies on them. 

 

That's actually my point.  Blu Ray will really have until 2014, because holographic storage will likely be too expensive in 2012.  Blu Ray might havea significant install base, but it might not.  If Blu Ray doesn't, then I think people will be ready for something significantly better than Blu Ray.  We are talking an order of magnitude better than Blu Ray.  Blu Ray is not a whole order of magnitude better than DVD.

I'll admit there is a good chance that Blu Ray will reach 50% market share, and if it does, it will be difficult for a new format.  However, if DVD still has 50% market share by 2014, I think Blu Ray could be pinched into being a niche in-between technology.

lol..I just have to bring up the point.

you do know that Blu-Ray is also an HOLOGRAPHIC disc based technology!

it's over.

if anything the last mainstream optical format for movies will be based on the core technology of disc based format's of DVD

Blu-Ray player's still play DVD's, and what if ever optical format replaces Blu-Ray will still be based on the core technology of DVD, AND STILL PLAY both DVD AND Blu-Ray disc's.

That's if EVER. 

IT'S A MOOT POINT BLU-RAY will never take over DVD

because it was not designed too from the start it was designed to Absorb DVD. the same May happen to Blu-Ray way later down the road

the optical format's still play VCD's, CD's.

its the very same core technology that keep's the other Viable and it make's sure the new technology stay's the standard for year's to come.

So

to keep the point , DVD is going to remain , Blu-ray is going to remain an CD is going to remain

Thus, Blu-ray does not have to "HURRY" up and take over DVD because it WILL Replace DVD anyway because Blu-Ray is also a DVD

BLU-RAY IS ALSO A FORM OF DVD.

IT WAS DESIGNED TO ABSORB DVD RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...NOT REPLACE IT.

because DVD is a standard that there is no need to replace., you just need to make DVD better

and that is what Blu-Ray is a better DVD format.

thus Since ALL BLU-RAY PLAYER'S STILL PLAY THE DVD FORMAT.

BLU-RAY HAS ALREADY DONE WHAT IT WAS DESIGNED TO DO FROM THE GET GO.


Blu-ray is not a holographic disc based technology.  Holographic discs uses multiple lasers, I think only 2 currently, focused into one laser to read the disc.   Blu-ray players and readers only have one laser from start to finish.   I would comment on the rest of your post but none of it makes any sense.

umm, yes it is. Its 

as a matter of fact:

HVD is not the only technology in high-capacity, optical storage media. InPhase Technologiesis developing a rival holographic format called Tapestry Media, which they claim will eventually store 1.6 TB with a data transfer rate of 120 MB/s, and several companies are developing TB-level discs based on 3D optical data storage technology. Such large optical storage capacities compete favorably with the Blu-ray Disc format. However, holographic drives are projected to initially cost around US$15,000, and a single disc around US$120–180, although prices are expected to fall steadily.[4] The market for this format is not initially the common consumer, but enterprises with very large storage needs.

he Holographic Versatile Disc (HVD) is an optical disc technology that, in the future, may hold up to 1PB (petabyte) of information, although the current maximum is 10TB. It employs a technique known as collinear holography, whereby two green laser beams are collimated in a single beam. The green laser reads data encoded as laser interference fringes from a holographic layer near the top of the disc. A Blue laser is used same as Blu ray as the reference beam to read servoinformation from a regular CD-style aluminum layer near the bottom. Servoinformation is used to monitor the position of the read head over the disc, similar to the head, track, and sector information on a conventional hard disk drive. On a CD or DVD this servoinformation is interspersed amongst the data.

A dichroic mirror layer between the holographic data and the servo data reflects thegreen laser while letting the red laser pass through. This prevents interference from refraction of the green laser off the servo data pits and is an advance over past holographic storage media, which either experienced too much interference, or lacked the servo data entirely, making them incompatible with current CD and DVD drive technology.[1] These discs have the capacity to hold up to 6  (TB) of information. The HVD also has a transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s (125 MB/s). Sony, Philips, TDK, Panasonic and Optware all plan to release 1 TB capacity discs in 2019 while Maxell plans one for early 2020 with a capacity of 500 GB and transfer rate of 20 MB/s—although HVD standards were approved and published on June 28, 2007, no company has released an HVD as of November 2009.

 

As of August 2009, the HVD Forum comprised these corporations:

Some members of the Blu-ray Disc Association

 

On December 9, 2004 at its 88th General Assembly the standards body Ecma International created Technical Committee 44, dedicated to standardizing HVD formats based on Optware's technology. On June 11, 2007, TC44 published the first two HVD standards:[5] ECMA-377,[6] defining a 200 GB HVD "recordable cartridge" and ECMA-378,[7] defining a 100 GB HVD-ROM disc. Its next stated goals are 30 GB HVD cards and submission of these standards to the International Organization for Standardization for ISO approval.[8]

[9] New High Definition Video Technologies Road Map (2004-2010) From Maxell Corporation of America

 

AN I hope this can end this Debate About Holographic unseating Blu-Ray anytime soon

if anyone still think's HVD can anytime soon.

 please get it through your head

IT's over

HVD, digital downloads, or any other technology in the near future are not going to unseat Blu-Ray for the near future

the full CE companies all support Blu-Ray

the Entire Movie industry support's Blu-Ray

and Blu-Ray still support's standard DVD

IT'S OVER WITH AND DONE

BLU-RAY IS THE WINNER!

 

While I agree with you about that HVD will not take over for Blu-ray anytime soon or ever for that matter, that article actually reinforces my arguement that Blu-ray is not a holographic disc.   I dont know where you saw it in there that it said it was,  it was just comparing it to blu-ray cause it uses some of the same features.   The first paragraph is merely talking about high capacity discs.   But I do agree with the rest of what you said.



Vetteman94 on 11 December 2009

Here are the numbers for week ending 12/06/09

Blu-ray had another great week pulling in a 15:85 ratio.   Blu-ray was up 157.1% YoY,  while  DVD and Total Packaged Media was down 19.16% and 10% respectively.   Despite the good week from Blu-ray total media revenue was still down.

Will post the other charts when they become available