1) "ARMS - seems to be having a so-so launch, I don't expect this to do much. It is nice to see Nintendo try a new IP, though."
Maybe if Splatoon didn't exist you'd have a different perspective - based on sales figures and estimates, Arms has had a pretty good launch for a new IP.
2) "Splatoon 2 - looks fine. I can't figure out what makes this better than the first game, but Japan loves it, and I think it'll be interesting to see if this can do bigger numbers on Switch than Wii U. I'm not worried about it."
The fact that Splatoon 2 is on a semi-handheld and that Splatoon 1 was a surprise hit every where basically guarantees its sequel will sell better. Think of the original Halo and how it being a surprise hit made the 2nd one really hyped.
3) "Mario Odyssey - I am worried about this one. Nintendo really should be going 2D with Mario, the proof is in the sales figures. I was giving Odyssey the benefit of the doubt because Nintendo made great strides in open world with Zelda, but I think the game might have serious issues with the cornball theme song and strange mix reality and fantasy. Nintendo needs Mario to perform, they have no other guaranteed hits until Pokemon."
What?
THIS right here is the problem I have with sales analysis regarding Nintendo. It's like people only look at the sales figures and judge based on that. It was the same with Metroid and how people excuse a lack of Metroid sequels because "Muh less than 3 million". 2D Mario games do *NOT* sell consoles anymore. In fact I honestly think they only ever did because when they came out they were a nice novelty. What tetris did for gameboy, new Super Mario Bros did for DS - and you can't replicate that entirely. 3D Mario games sell consoles. I think the switch's selling point is a lot like the Nintendo's 64, where it's revolutionary technology(in handheld mode) with revolutionary games. Revolutionary Nintendo games sell, copycats run dry.
The rest of the games you mentioned are like "loyalty console sellers", where hardcore fans will buy consoles because they love these smaller more niche series. Prime could do gangbusters though if Nintendo pushed the boundaries.
"Ironically, I think Skyrim and maybe Rocket League will do as much to save Switch in 2018 than anything Nintendo has scheduled."
Uh...what? Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon Switch, Kirby, and Yoshi are all announced for 2018. Kirby and Yoshi aren't system sellers like they used to be but they'll still sell consoles, the Switch will get a greater library that will incentive more consumers to buy it - and we'll still have a Pokemon ready. I'll admit it's not a *ton* but it's about as much system sellers as 2014 for Wii U(with a system with a much better library already and more hype and functionality).