It is possible but only if they release a SCD or a upgraded Dock
How long will the Nintendo Switch's lifespan be? | |||
| 4 Years | 33 | 15.87% | |
| 5 Years | 25 | 12.02% | |
| 6 Years | 70 | 33.65% | |
| 7 Years | 34 | 16.35% | |
| 8 Years | 16 | 7.69% | |
| 9 Years | 3 | 1.44% | |
| 10 Years | 27 | 12.98% | |
| Total: | 208 | ||
It is possible but only if they release a SCD or a upgraded Dock
9 year cycle with refreshes every 3 years would be fine by me.
I'm thinking 6-7 really. Nintendo has the ability to do this easy.
From Wii to Wii U was 72 months. From Wii U to Switch was 52 months. Seems pretty much a given that Switch 2 (or whatever) is gonna be between 52 and 72 months. 5-6 years.
I think he's speaking more than just "an extra year or two". A 5 year versus 6 year cycle is not really that different.
5 year versus a 9 year cycle ... now that's different.
Going by when they launched next gen not by when they stopped supporting it.
NES 6 years 85-91
SNES 5 years 91-96 (tech was evolving way more rapidly in that period)
N64 5 years 96 to 2001
Gamecube 5 years 2001 to 2006
Wii 6 years 2006 to 2012
WiiU 5 years 2012-2017 (really 4.5, fall launch for WiiU, early spring launch for Switch)
So basically every Nintendo console has gotten about 5 years min, even the ones with weaker sales (GC and WiiU)
Only the 2 consoles that had dominating success(when WiiU launched Wii still had a massive lead over PS360, they had started narrowing the lead at that point, but it was really 2013-14 when PS360 were still selling great and Wii pretty much stopped that they pulled to a respectable distance) got 6 full years before a successor.
So that said, basically Shiggy is saying he see Switch possibly being a NES/Wii like success and thus would get 6 years maybe before a successor.
Nintendo has been remarkable consistent with this. Unlike MS which gave Xbox like 4 years, 360 like 8 years and now is releasing a console that is probably double the power of the XB1 4 years later (even though it is "same gen")
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
i hope that the Switch becomes their new signature design. like after the Switch we could get the Switch 2 and have it be compatible with the same dock and be backwards compatible. ten they could have new hardware iterations all they want without having to elongate the lifespan
It would be a disaster if it wasn't more than 5 years! 5 years is GameCube level lifespan.
| bigjon said: Going by when they launched next gen not by when they stopped supporting it. NES 6 years 85-91 SNES 5 years 91-96 (tech was evolving way more rapidly in that period) N64 5 years 96 to 2001 Gamecube 5 years 2001 to 2006 Wii 6 years 2006 to 2012 WiiU 5 years 2012-2017 (really 4.5, fall launch for WiiU, early spring launch for Switch) So basically every Nintendo console has gotten about 5 years min, even the ones with weaker sales (GC and WiiU) Only the 2 consoles that had dominating success(when WiiU launched Wii still had a massive lead over PS360, they had started narrowing the lead at that point, but it was really 2013-14 when PS360 were still selling great and Wii pretty much stopped that they pulled to a respectable distance) got 6 full years before a successor. So that said, basically Shiggy is saying he see Switch possibly being a NES/Wii like success and thus would get 6 years maybe before a successor. Nintendo has been remarkable consistent with this. Unlike MS which gave Xbox like 4 years, 360 like 8 years and now is releasing a console that is probably double the power of the XB1 4 years later (even though it is "same gen") |
The difference between 5 and 6 year is immaterial, it's not really worth mentioning.
I think he's speaking of a much larger difference than that. Think 8/9/10 years and more of an ecosystem, not just a singular hardware.
It's not the 80s/90s anymore, every industry eventually changes.
It depends how technology will grow from now. And if there is a opportunity to take advantage of it
Pocky Lover Boy!
