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Forums - Sony - PS4 Still beating PS2, launch aligned

Well I don't care about the bickering about minutae, but the overall picture shows what good state the business is in.
I don't know attach rate #s, but I doubt any difference (in either direction) outweighs what they gain from PSN/Plus.
As well as the consequences of dropping subsidy model, which I believe PS2 was operating on at least to start with...

As to post-PS5 launch, it's pretty obvious that will be timed to coincide with new fab/design availability,
not just on AMD CPU/GPU side, but memory and interconnects as well, no reason to let MS wait a year
to grab easy "free" performance:price advantage if the PS4 ecosystem is making money in the meantime.
So it could happen 2019, but there could just as easily be delays - 2020 or even 2021 are very possible.
The "long tail" sales will also disproportionately happen in poorer countries where Sony has brand lead.
It will certainly make sense to do a 7nm shrink and by then memory prices will likely drop alot as well.
Although if significantly targetting that non-core global market, dropping Blu-Ray may not work as well.



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That's pretty incredible. After the initial shortage of consoles and a damn near unparalleled Christmas lineup in 2001, I figured any console keeping up with PS2 launch numbers would be impossible (I think the Wii was able to until it fizzled out, though.). Good job Sony. Lightning struck twice!



lonerism said:
PS4 is just a beast

Next step: beat Wii

More like next step beat ps3. That is still almost two years away - probably early 2019. Getting to Wii/ps1 is probably another two years after that, so early 2021, ps5 will certainly already be out by then, maybe for over a year at that time. So ps4 will maybe hit 105-110 million, which is incredibly impressive.



zorg1000 said:
Farsala said:

Pretty much made it on par with the Wii then? Dominance in the casual market may never be quite achieved like the Wii and PS2 did.

Wii was around 70 million in the same time frame.

Hate to nitpick but, It seems 70m Wii would be using 3years and some months, while your PS2 numbers for JP  were less.

10.34 JP                             3yrs 4 ish months

33.4 Americas                 3yrs 4.5 months

27.19 Other                     3yrs 4 ish months

Total: 70.93

 

Japan as of March 2003-12.70            3yrs 1 ish month

America as of March 2004-29.53      3yrs 5 ish months

PAL as of March 2004-24.79               3yrs 4 ish months

Total-67.02

 

Not only that but the launch dates for PS2 is all over the place for many regions in Asia and Others. For example it launched in Brazil in 2009, (3yr Wii vs 0yr PS2) Other countries like SK (1yr 11m Wii vs  1yr 1m PS2), Taiwan (1yr 8m Wii, vs 0 PS2), HK (Launch months Wii vs 0 PS2), and many others. I am sure you get the point.

It is also obvious that the PS2 got much of its legs by launching in these areas so late. For example in its last few years, most sales came from non major countries which likely included launches.

It is interesting, I always thought the Wii had a sizable lead until Nintendo abandoned it. But tbh the PS2 might have been ahead launch aligned.

TLDR: Launch aligning is tough



It's worth keeping in mind that "launch aligned" is misleading unless you align for each individual region.

PS2 launched on March 4, 2000 in Japan. It wasn't until near the end of October that it launched in the US (nearly 8 months later) and near the end of November in Europe and Australia (nearly 9 months later).

PS4 also had a staggered release, but only by about three months and this time it was Japan that saw the delay (which matters much less given that the Japanese market is very handheld-oriented nowadays).

I looked into this a while ago, and while it's impossible to track them exactly, the PS4 is definitely tracking behind PS2 if you account for the staggered launches.

It's also tracking behind the DS and Wii, I think, although the Wii's sales dropped off very quickly from around the 4-5 year mark. PS4 might fare better in that regard; it depends on whether most people that want one already have one at the moment.



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Slownenberg said:
lonerism said:
PS4 is just a beast

Next step: beat Wii

More like next step beat ps3. That is still almost two years away - probably early 2019. Getting to Wii/ps1 is probably another two years after that, so early 2021, ps5 will certainly already be out by then, maybe for over a year at that time. So ps4 will maybe hit 105-110 million, which is incredibly impressive.

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

 

Next up is the NES,  3DS, PSP, GBA and then PS3. 

 

It should beat the NES shipments after the next quarter most likely.  

 

1 more year and it will be just behind the PSP!



aLkaLiNE said:
KBG29 said:
Yepp, and it should not fall behind. With mostly standard tech, the move to digital, the revenue from PS, and yearly revisions to hardware (Some at an internal level only), PS4 should reach price levels we have not seen since PS2 also.

Some things that I see happening to keep PS4 ahead of PS2

-I fully expect PS4 to $249.99 by this holiday with deals that go below $199.99.
-I also believe Sony will continue to shick the PS4 APU at every possible die shrink going forward, so we could see PS4 and PS4 Pro on 10nm, 7nm, and 3nm before production is ended.
-There will very likely be a Digital Only PS4, and yes a PS4 Premium.
-Due to the above I expect a $199.99 base price in holiday 2018, and a $149.99 base price in holiday 2019, with a $99.99 digital only edition.
-PS4 will continue to be supported well after the PS5 launches, whether that be in 2019 or 2024.
-PS4 is Sonys door into the OS and Ecosystem battle, so it will be pushed like no other PlayStation in history, as the entire future of the company rides on its ability to get as many people as possible into the Sony ecosystem.
-Eventually all Sony devices will be built from the same DNA, thus making every sony product a PlayStation eventually.

Sonys not going to compete with an operating system now, and probably never unless the idea of going out of business sounds good. It takes years of iteration from literally the worlds biggest companies to make an OS. Sorry, but Sony can't compete against Apple, Google, and Ms in that regard. Not gonna happen and it doesn't need to happen. It's already remarkable enough that PlayStation is basically Linux gaming.

He thinks the vitaOS is better than android. There's no changing his mind.



Ljink96 said:

PS2 didnt get to 157M because people wanted a cheap dvd player back in 2000, it kept on selling after PS3 because it was so cheap and affordable enough to continue selling in emerging markets. Launch aligned PS4 is beating PS2. Also VHS was still king in 2000, in 2002 I bought a dvd player for 50 euro or so.

PS4 is well on its way to do ~100M in just 6 years, it wont have PS2 legs but it also wont collapse like the PS3 did.


If people bought it for games and because it was cheap, we'd see higher results in game software sales....which we don't.  Just going off VGChartz alone, Wii which sold 57 million units less than PS2, the software sales are on par if not better than PS2s. Well, yeah Wii Sports was bundeld sure. But PS2 had bundles as well. But just to be fair, Xbox 360 also has toe to toe software sales not including digital. What I'm getting at is not everybody who bought a PS2 bought it for gaming. DVD was huge in the early 2000's hell, my dad was a manager of a blockbuster around that time, they couldn't fathom a entire film on a thin disc and DVD players were expensieve, until the PS2 came out especially in Japan. 

where are you looking? the ps2 nearly sold double the amount of software and has a better tie ration than the wii

 

Platform Hardware Software Tie Ratio Games
1 PlayStation 2 (PS2) 157.68 1,661.95 10.54 3,549
2 Xbox 360 (X360) 85.78 1,006.36 11.73 3,673
3 PlayStation 3 (PS3) 86.83 973.72 11.21 3,312
4 Wii (Wii) 101.18 965.78 9.55 2,808


lonerism said:
PS4 is just a beast

Next step: beat Wii

Look at where Wii is above PS4 and PS2. It will take a lot of effort to beat the Wii let alone the PS2



Just a guy who doesn't want to be bored. Also

The PS4 is on track to sell 150 million console systems!