PS4 will pass the PS1. That has been my prediction since 2015.

The whole "mid gen upgrade" thing complicates things a bit. Will the next iteration really be superior enough to clearly be "next gen", or will it be another less-but-still-substantial upgrade?

It only matters when trying to count total sales for a single iteration, but with the strength of the Pro and Scorpio I suspect we'll have to wait a decent amount of time before a true upgrade is affordable.

That, coupled with the overwhelming success of the PS4 probably (and justifiably) providing some motive for Sony to let it live a full life and not hurry to PS5, should still lead to some outstanding lifetime console sales. It doesn't have the one big advantage PS2 had (people buying it to be their primary dvd player), but it should still post sales most were imagining impossible for consoles of this gen just half a decade ago.

We certainly don't see many "consoles are dead" threads these days lol

nice! i think it will eventually surpass Wii numbers. can't see it beating PS2 numbers though.

For PS5, I think they are going to do a standard console leap, however, it will only be that in comparison to the OG PS4.  I've been saying something along the lines of a Ryzen 1700 and a Vega 10 for the GPU.  That would give you about a 6x-6.5x leap (11-12Tflops vs 1.84) over the OG PS4, in terms of GPU, plus a much better CPU.  Sure, that's only like a 2.5x-3x leap over the Pro, but that's to be expected with these mid-gen refreshes.  If Sony keeps going with those refreshes, we're going to see something like a 22-25Tflops PS5 Pro.  I think at that point, we can kiss checkerboarding goodbye.

So, that would still put the PS5 to be here by late 2019.  I don't think Sony wants to prolong this gen any longer than 6 years, which is around the normal time for a gen to last.  Tech just moves so quickly.  Sure, consoles hang around much longer because of the cost benefits, but there's still a limit to how long console gamers want to wait for the next gen.  Last gen, 7 years (8 for the 360) seemed like an eternity, with people begging for new HW at the end.  A lot of that had to do with Sony and MS wanting to make up for some of the money they lost at the beginning of the gen.  This gen, however, doesn't pose that problem, as the PS4 HW was profitable only months after launching.  I imagine the XBO wasn't too far behind.

And yea, lol at all those "consoles are dead" threads/articles.  I'm sure we'll get them in 2019, when we get closer to next gen.  Then, they'll fade away until it's time for the following gen.

Pretty much made it on par with the Wii then? Dominance in the casual market may never be quite achieved like the Wii and PS2 did.

It's not like the PS4's Japanese sales make a difference.

It's crazy actually. The PS2 sold over 10% of its lifetime total in Japan, the PS4 is doing like 5% or less. Although, ultimately that will be one reason why the PS4 won't outsell the PS2 in the end.

That seems very possible, but it does introduce a couple of complications. I think they'd, at the very least, need to allow for the PS4 Pro to receive scaled down PS5 games for the first year or two as is often typical over the last few years for a couple of reasons:

1.) Making PS4 Pro owners feel they got their money's worth

2.) (This one is quite important) Making 3rd party devs and such willing to provide games for the PS5 that take at least some advantage of the upgraded hardware while being able to tap into that enormous PS4 market, as 3rd party devs are always more interested in the previous gen than the new one for the first year or two (more potential for sales)

The scenario we're describing here could make it more difficult for 3rd party devs to develop games which both take advantage of the new hardware but also can meet their profit potential by porting to the PS4, the original being far less powerful at that point.

The solution (in my mind) would be to focus on the ports of the first couple years being compatible only with the PS4 Pro. This would allow them to be more ambitious with their PS5 versions while still profiting from what should be a huge number of (by then) PS4 Pro players, all the while simultaneously allowing PS4 Pro owners to feel they got their money's worth by providing an additional year or two of support. I can say personally that, as a person with an OG PS4, I would feel satisfied with what I received by 2019, but as someone who is planning to get the Pro this holiday season I'd like to see support for more than a couple years (the hardware is strong enough to justify it).

That's how it would ideally work out for me, anyway. Outside of that, I'd like to see the Switch offer an upgrade in a couple of years in which only the tablet itself is swapped (allowing for a much lower price without the joycons/dock/adaptor/memory stick etc), which could allow it to keep pace without requiring a huge consumer investment over the next six or so years. As opposed to this recent launch, it appears they'll probably have the luxury to time their next release better with the development of improved processors and batteries, so it should be capable of more bang for the buck as well.

Finally, as for how to count mid gen tiers, I don't have much problem with combining the sales of original models and later upgrades, as it's something we've been doing with Nintendo's handhelds for years now. I think it'd be pretty awesome if the PS4 winds up with enormous sales and the Switch/Xbox1 both clear 50 million or more, as it'd be pretty funny to post those final numbers from what was supposed to be the last legit console gen to some of those "Consoles are doomed" threads lol

Yeah it seems unlikely. Wii casuals have moved on to mobile, and the PS2's affordable DVD player just seems unlikely to be replicated anytime soon as people have mostly taken to streaming these days.

Granted, I plan to get the Scorpio in large part for its 4k player but, much like when I bought the PS3 in large part due to its extremely generous price given it could play Bluray movies, I imagine I'll be in the minority on this one lol

Ps4 vs Switch aligned anyone?

DAMN RIGHT MAN!!!And to be honest, the PS4 will easily be the 2ND best selling console of all-time, right behind the PS2. That's not a bad place to be by any means. The PS2 was like the THRILLER of video games....I don't think ANYTHING will top it!