By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

 

Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
oniyide on 12 June 2017

I see what Zod is trying to say, but I think we have to remember the Switch also doubles as their portable, so if anything they could always lean to that side and do what they've always done in that way



Around the Network
StuOhQ on 12 June 2017

We seem to be looking at 4 million moved by the end of June. That means that even with a Wii U level fall and holiday, the Switch will have moved almost half of the Wii U's entire lifespan. Assuming that this momentum and having a new Mario and Zelda, plus a port of the best selling Wii U game, plus other big titles like Arms and Splatoon 2, makes any dent on the sales, we're looking at far more than 6 million during the first year - meaning the Switch will no doubt pull lifetime numbers for the Wii U rather quickly (likely somewhere between 12 and 18 months).



Retro Tech Select - My Youtube channel. Covers throwback consumer electronics with a focus on "vid'ya games."

Latest Video: Top 12: Best Games on the N64 - Special Features, Episode 7

Nogamez on 12 June 2017

None of the blockbuster AAA3rd party games went to DS, PSP or 3DS either, what's your point?



Zod95 on 12 June 2017
oniyide said:
I see what Zod is trying to say, but I think we have to remember the Switch also doubles as their portable, so if anything they could always lean to that side and do what they've always done in that way

My 20M prediction is based on the expectation that NS does not replace 3DS. If that happens, my number will most probably be very wrong.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 on 12 June 2017
RolStoppable said:

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.

...

Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?

 

RolStoppable said:

To break it down by years, your prediction of 20m would have to look similar to this when taking the common sales curve for a struggling system into account:

2017 - 5m
2018 - 6m
2019 - 5m
2020 - 3m
2021 - 1m

But by the end of June Switch will already be closing in on 5m and then there's still half a year left, including the holiday season. Your prediction has no grounds in reality anymore, because it would require a dropoff in sales rate that is unprecedented.

WiiU was unprecedented:

2012 + 2013: 5.3M

2014: 3.6M

2015: 3.5M

2016: 1.5M

2017: 0.1M

 

It would only require this for NS:

2017: 9M

2018: 6M

2019: 4M

2020: 1M

 

But let me know your prediction. It's easy to "counter-bet", not so easy to bet.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Around the Network
Zod95 on 12 June 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Some people want Switch to fail so badly that they'll ignore data, facts and reality to keep to their agenda.

My agenda is to keep my predictions in my signature forever. Obviously, I have no interest in making bad predictions.

But let me know your prediction for NS's lifetime sales. If they are +100M, I would love to talk to you in the years to come.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Volterra_90 on 12 June 2017

Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.



Soundwave on 12 June 2017

It's selling well, that said, the OP's point is hard to dispute right now. 

Been kind of a depressing E3 for Switch software announcements, I think the only notable thing that may have leaked is a store listing for WWE 2K18, lol. 

Lets see what reveals Nintendo has at their show.



Zod95 on 12 June 2017
Volterra_90 said:
Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.

Make a prediction for NS's lifetime sales.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Volterra_90 on 12 June 2017
Zod95 said:
Volterra_90 said:
Honestly, seeing the data, the fact that the console sells out almost everywhere, the fact that it'll surpass WiiU best year in a month... And that the console is way more attractive than the WiiU was imho. And they still have a lot of margin to make a price cut if needed. I don't see a possible scenario when the console doesn't perform well. Less than 30M seems pretty outlandish right now.

Make a prediction for NS's lifetime sales.

Right now I'd say 80M. Bold one. We'll see in a few years time though!