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RolStoppable said:

But what zorg said is true. The margin by which Switch is beating Wii U launch-aligned is growing at a rapid rate with each passing day. Three months after launch the Wii U was selling about 40k units per week. Switch is comfortably doing 160k units per week.


Switch isn't following the Wii U's pattern at all. Switch only needed three months to beat the Wii U's entire peak year performance.

I only see 9 weeks of HW data for NS. How do you see 3 months?


RolStoppable said:

To break it down by years, your prediction of 20m would have to look similar to this when taking the common sales curve for a struggling system into account:

2017 - 5m
2018 - 6m
2019 - 5m
2020 - 3m
2021 - 1m

But by the end of June Switch will already be closing in on 5m and then there's still half a year left, including the holiday season. Your prediction has no grounds in reality anymore, because it would require a dropoff in sales rate that is unprecedented.

WiiU was unprecedented:

2012 + 2013: 5.3M

2014: 3.6M

2015: 3.5M

2016: 1.5M

2017: 0.1M


It would only require this for NS:

2017: 9M

2018: 6M

2019: 4M

2020: 1M


But let me know your prediction. It's easy to "counter-bet", not so easy to bet.

Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M