i go along with you quite far Xponent
but i don't believe that they completely compete for the same gamers


just look at the game libraries of the wii on onse side
and the 360 and ps3 on the other side

the difference between genres and sorts of games has never been so big between nintendo and the rest of the market


so it's not completely true that they compete for the same gamers
cause nintendo itself has even stated that the want new gamers to play the wii parents and grandparents too and small children
that's even one of nintendo's big objectives

Thats just it though, what I think can happen and what the graph shows are different things.

The graph shows the PS3 just keeping up with the PS2 during the slowest sales periods it experienced. The question is what can we infer from that? And the answer is that the PS3 must increase sales to keep up. I can't infer from the graph that the PS3 will increase sales because their are far too many differences between the two situations these consoles are/were in.

What I can tell you is that the PS3 started off MUCH slower than it is selling right now and has already improved dramatically and has leveled off at a much higher sales level. I could make a case that says the PS3 is going to decrease, increase, and stay the same in sales over the next 3 years...but the fact is that projections and predictions are all based on current information and that information can change very rapidly in this industry and a prediction I make today I would likely want to change in 3 months, hell look at Pachter lol.

The chart is moderately interesting in that it says the PS3 could still have a bright future, and I don't disagree with that honestly. But I think its chances of seeing PS2 sales levels throughout its life are extremely slim, and certainly impossible in terms of market share. The same way I think the Wii's chances of maintaining 2:1 sales over the PS2 is extremely slim and its chances of attaining a similar market share is equally impossible imho.

I think something people lose sight of is that this IS NOT a zero sum game. What that means is that a Nintendo win is not a Sony loss. All three consoles can win, its not like chess where someone must win and someone must lose. If all three consoles end their life with a net profit for their company then they've been successfull. And when you realize that a successful generation always helps build the brand name and image you begin to see that its actually very easy for everyone to win. Now with that said it is true that some win more than others and how they measure that depends on their goals at the outset.  But ultimately the only way to lose is to drop out.

Iam not going to post 50 times trying to explain it to you, its plain as day to understand. 

Sales increses, price drops major game relseses and life expectancy.  Just play around with it and you can guesstamate a pretty good out come. 

I could explain it to you better if i had monthly sale sfor PS3 for the 3 regions since launch. 

 100 million???? THAT'S WAAY TO HIGH. I'm not even sure if the Wii will hit that number

I really hope you got more out of my post than that =P  Keep in mind that a bright future doesn't mean PS2 sales levels necessarily.

redarmia

if i throw a ball in the sky, it will come down
now that's something you can say for sure


the ps3 reaching the 100 mill is somehow also a law of physics in your head

don't worry ;)

The fact is that we are all idiots.

And instead of enjoying our gaming consoles and our games we analyze sales and trolling other systems.

I mean wake up who cares if ps3 is gonna sell 20 ,5o or 100 million???

xbox and gamecube sold considerably lower than the ps2 still they got almost every game that was on the ps2( multiplatforms ) plus their own exclusives.stop acting like you are investors on those companies........i personally think that all these asumptions are meaningless ..........................

If your smart enough lol it almost is.

Just factor in all the variables most things will come down to some basic math, you will be of a bit but over all you will get a picture of what will happen.