You seem about right although I would expect PS3 to be slightly higher.

I'm actually in the midst of writing a very detailed hardware sales article and I'm keenly aware of the performance differences between last and this year. In fact you will note that both the Wii and 360 had better Septembers than Octobers last year yet the PS3 was significantly up in October. The reason for this discrepency is clearly because of the price drop in October.

Why do I bring this up you ask? Because the price drop is one of the largest factors (along with a decent holiday lineup and a turn for the better in PR) in bringing about the "recent" upswing in sales. In short I'm saying the sales were on their way up before the holidays began. Truth be told all three months this year are higher than October of last year but the increase is not nearly as stark as the months prior to that which I didn't take into account (precisely because they were so far off). In fact each consoles formulation for the holidays was built from a subset of data tailored specifically to that console in order to avoid this kind of mistake.

With that said, I went into the projection recognizing that the first three months of the year are slow and that it would likely represent a lower end number. With that in mind the decisions I made all attempted to reflect, in a reasonable fashion, the fact that it was intended as a low end number. So if it seems low, that is because it probably is =) But remember the same is true for the 360 and the Wii as well.

PS - Actually my offtopic responce in my first post had more to do with myself than whitedevil, when I was building the projection I was trying to remove any bias I had and I wondered how much still manages to creep in subconsciously.

edit: @smbu2000, whoops, thanks!

@sqrl

cool I can't wait for your analysis..