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I kind of wish that when I joined this site a few days before the Switch reveal, I would have made my predictions more clear. I predicted splatoon wasn't a port, I was right. I predicted march 17th wasn't the release date, I was right. I predicted mario kart wasn't a port, I was wrong. I predicted paid online, I was right. I also predicted that The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild would be the only big game at launch, because only 2 million shipments were being made.
But the biggest discussion I want to have is about something i've been 50-50 on for a while. You see, when people talk about the Switch and it's third party line up, people are quick to remind you that this is basically the Wii U's library mixed with the 3DS's library. It sounds like a dream come true. Not only are you getting console quality Mario and Splatoon sequels, but you're also getting Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and third party exclusives like Monster Hunter, Proffessor Layton, Pheonix Wright, Shin Megami Tensei, and the next projects from Bravely Default's developers(like Project Octopath Traveler). I hate to say it, but taking this stuff at face value is not entirely realistic. Am I saying these games won't be exclusive? No, they could be. However, I think we need to consider where the Nintendo Switch is at this point of time. And I'm not talking about the reveal. Quite frankily, the reveal didn't have any impact on this topic.
See, what I mean is, in the west we're worried that the Switch won't be powerful enough to get western third party support. However, in Japan, it's possible the Switch is too powerful. Having a handheld that is basically an underpowered home console, means that developers have to spend more time on graphics than they did with their previous projects. The DS line up got so many exclusive third party games for a variety of reasons. For one, the DS and 3DS weren't graphically impressive in the slightest. This meant that the barrier for entry was extremely small, and even releasing a title with poor graphics wasn't really looked down upon, since very little games on the DS systems had good graphics to begin with. The system was capable of so little, that the graphical capabilities weren't really a priority. This gave developers more time to focus on the content in the game as well as the gameplay itself. It also meant that titles that would be small and niche on a console could be taken more seriously. A good example is Bravely Default. Because that game is on a system with low graphical capabilities, and because all DS games retail for 40$ new, the game could be taken more seriously for the content inside of the game, and the developers didn't have to worry about utilizing the system to it's full potential like developers do on a system like the Playstation 4.
In short, what made the DS line up so great for third party exclusives was that it had the biggest install base, worse graphical capabilities(which saved time for developers), and had an ecosystem where Niche titles could be taken seriously at a 40$ price tag. Low cost, low barrier for entry, high demand. Because of this, titles like Bravely Default and Monster Hunter thrived. The thing is, the barrier for entry for Japanese developers on the Switch is much larger. Switch games might not be as impressive as Playstation 4 games, but they still look like home console games, meaning that more emphasis is already put on the competitive nature of graphics. This doesn't mean that developers have to try their hardest to make the best looking graphics, it does however mean that they have to put enough time into it to justify a 60$ price tag. Beyond this, games like Pheonix Wright or Proffessor Layton have the possibility of not making it in the retail space of a hybrid that is being marketed for it's home-console like experiences. Think about it. Those kind of games belong in the library of a handheld because people don't go to that system for mind blowing in depth experiences in the first place. However, anyone buying the Switch for it's portability is probably buying it because of it's most marketable aspect - playing home console quality games on the go. When you put smaller experiences like Pheonix Wright or Proffessor Layton on the same store shelf, the point of the system leans more towards home console games than small handheld experiences. I know someones going to say "They'll just sell it for a reduced price!! They'll just sell it for a reduced price!" But even then, the point of the system is still the impressive mobile capabilities. Those kind of games don't fit that standard, because they're just meant to be mobile games, not show off the system.
I think that Pheonix Wright and Proffessor Layton have a very good chance of being exclusives(if not, they might make it to mobile platforms). Shin Megami Tensei and Monster Hunter? Much less likely in my opinion. Both games already have a HUGEEEEEEEE fanbase on Playstation platforms and even though Monter Hunter is most popular in the handheld market, where Playstation currently doesn't have a successful console, a Monster hunter on the Switch should be pretty easy to port over to the Playstation 4. Monster Hunter sold pretty well on the Wii and Wii U, so there is a possibility that there's a niche Playstation 4 audience looking for a Monster hunter experience. Now to be fair, Monster hunter really became popular on handheld platforms, and becuase there is no Vita 2 and here in america Monster hunter became popular on the 3DS, it seems like worldwide a Switch release would still beat a PS4 release quite easily. That still doesn't change the fact that there could potentially be a pretty big market for a Monster hunter on the playstation. If Capcom deems it worthy, it's going to happen. Shin Megami Tensei is even more likely, since that game didn't necessarily become insanely popular of handheld systems alone.
I don't know what to think. Obviously Nintendo might make some deals to get the most popular third party japanese games as exclusives, who knows. But I think Shin Megami tensei and Monster hunter aren't really set for the Switch entirely. I also think a game like Proffesor Layton and Pheonix Wright might have a harder time on the Switch. Even if they have a huge loyal install base on Nintendo systems, many people are attracted to portable home console games, not portable small games which is available on just about any mobile hardware imaginable. Maybe they'll turn into small download titles, that I think wouldn't help them in terms of popularity though. I think what's most important is getting games like Final Fantasy XV, 7 Remake, Kingdom Hearts 3, and Dragon Quest on the Switch. Thing is, Final Fantasy XV probably won't make it at least for another year, the game has a very confusing engine. 7 Remake already has a timed exclusivity deal with Sony. They might work it out, they might just roll with it. Kingdom Hearts 3 is a long ways away, and with the terrible sales of Final Fantasy XV on the Xbox Platform, I wouldn't be surprised if an exclusivity deal was worked out. And Dragon Quest.....that's already set. That's great and all, but it's the smaller fish compared to Final Fantasy or Kingdom Hearts, especially worldwide.
What do you guys think? Am I an idiot? Am I putting too much thought into this? What should I have for lunch?
TLDR - The switch capabilities make it easy for companies to develop home console experiences for a handheld, and then put it on competing hardware like the PS4, which wasn't previous possible with the 3ds. How much third party exclusives(like Monster Hunter)might we lose? Will we lose any? Will it matter?
