Shadow1980 said:
The 3DS is at almost 18.9M. It needs to sell a little under 1.1M to match the PSP. |
Ok, it should certainly pass 20 million next year. It would have to have over a 50% YoY decline for it not to.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
SuperBudgie1582 said:
Both versions pulled their weight. Im not sure what your trying to imply, but the Xbox One sales for FFXV are a lot better than many could have hoped and Square-Enix is probably going to continue to support the console in the future. |
Probably because FFXV would have released sooner if there was no Xbox One holding the game back?
SuperBudgie1582 said:
Im not sure why you'd think that. The breakdown is similar to how FXIII sold on last gen consoles, which is even more impressive for the Xbox One version seeing as how the Xbox 360 was ahead of the PS3 while thats not the case this gen. |
SuperBudgie1582 said:
When you take into account the smaller install base and digital sales, its not hard to argue that the Xbox One version of FFXV outsold the 360 version of FXIII. The actual take rate for FFXV is higher than FFXII. |
It's not even that much considering how they pretty much discounte the game before it launched. And to think that alot of those of those xbox 360 players probably move on considering their base was too old or those consoles probably RRODed
SuperBudgie1582 said:
That doesn't really matter though in this context. The Xbox 360 was at 20 million when FFXIII came out, the Xbox One is at or around 16 million when FFXV came out. |
Again, RROD.
| Shadow1980 said: MORE CHARTS!
|
How do you see things ending up in the long run when it comes to PS2/XB vs PS3/360 vs PS4/XBO?
So far PS4/XBO is on par with PS2/XB and comfortably ahead of PS3/360 but lifetime sales of PS3/360 surpassed PS2/XBO by a healthy margin so its hard to look at this data and come to any conclusions.
Personally I think PS3/360 will start to gain ground and even surpass PS4/XBO due to them having such late peaks (PS3 took a long time to get to mass market pricing & 360 had big casual hits with Kinect & Minecraft late in its life).
Price has not been a big issue for PS4 or XBO with both getting to sub-$300 pricing relatively quickly and even sub-$250 in the last couple months. Also neither one seems to have any type of new software to reach expanded audiences like Guitar Hero/Rock Band, Just Dance/Dance Central, PS Move/Kinect or Minecraft/Lego/Skylanders. All of those things are on PS4/XBO but none of them have a fraction of the impact that they did for PS3/360 from 2008-2011.
It wouldnt surprise me if a huge majority of PS4/XBO owners are teenage & adult males who play little else besides open world, online shooters & annual sports games and it doesnt seem like they will be able to attract a large market of kids, families or females unless they start providing new software designed for these demographics. Currently the best bet of attracting expanded audiences is PS VR but at its current price i dont see that happening, maybe in a couple years when the price goes down but by then it could be old news and more affordable VR for phones could dominate.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Ok, it should certainly pass 20 million next year. It would have to have over a 50% YoY decline for it not to. |
I'm so curious to see if the missed sales of december owing to its scarcity after almost sellng out, ( way higher demand than what nintendo was expecting )...
Although, we won't see that in January, as it hasn't been restocked yet...
That happens when demand exceeds your full year production forecast!
| Sh1nn said: Final Fantasy XV: ~1,573,000 http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228730943&postcount=228 |
UPD : 450K for XBO was incl. DD numbers.
Final Fantasy XV ~1.77 (1.57M retail + ~200K digital)
PS4 ~1.32M
XBO ~450K
http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=228757301&postcount=432
shikamaru317 said:
Yeah, it did quite well. No doubt it has made back however much the XB1 port cost them and is turning a profit. Hopefully Square Enix will reconsider the PS exclusivity for KH 1.5, 2.5, and 2.8 now. KH3 on XB1 could perform nearly as well as FFXV did if they release the earlier games on XB1 first, espeically if they released them in one big collection. |
How much does a port cost?
shikamaru317 said:
Yeah, it did quite well. No doubt it has made back however much the XB1 port cost them and is turning a profit. Hopefully Square Enix will reconsider the PS exclusivity for KH 1.5, 2.5, and 2.8 now. KH3 on XB1 could perform nearly as well as FFXV did if they release the earlier games on XB1 first, espeically if they released them in one big collection. |
The way FFXV turned out for the XB1 definitely helps its case. Getting the KH collections on the XB1 is still a hard sell, in my opinion for various reasons. For one thing, the KH series is nowhere as large as Final Fantasy. The other is that KH2.8 is coming out in just 4 days. Timed exclusivity, whether it's intentional or not, dampens the sales potential of the version that releases later. We see this with Rise of the Tomb Raider even though the series is more aligned with the PS fanbase than the Xbox fanbase. There might be some hope for KH 1.5 + 2.5, though those collections have been on the PS3 for a while. Those who are interested in buying KH 1.5 + 2.5 are most likely PS4 owners.
shikamaru317 said:
Depends on many factors honestly, the scale of the game, the engine being used, etc. What we do know is that porting is easier this gen than it used to be, thanks to PS4/XB1/PC all using similar hardware. We've heard indie devs say that it doesn't take long at all, one indie dev said they were able to dump code directly from one console to another and have it work almost immediately, and optimize it run perfectly within just a few weeks. Obviously a big AAA like FFXV would take more time and manpower, but how much more is something known only to the developers. As a hypothesis, let's say it takes a team of 30 developers 3 months to port a AAA game from PS4 to XB1 or vice-versa. The average game developer salary is $68,000 a year right now, so 1/4 of that (3 months) would be worth $17,000 per developer. $17,000 x 30 developers is $510,000 spent on the port. Final Fantasy XV sold 450k copies on XB1 in December in the US according to the NPD leaker, and the price at retail varied between $30 and $60 throughout the month, let's say the average was $45 per copy (it's likely higher than that since it was only on sale for $30 one day as I recall). Minus the retailer's cut and the price of packaging materials, let's say $38 per copy in actual profit for Square. $38 x 450,000 copies is $17 million, far more that the hypothetical $510,000 spent on the port. And that's just US sales, it has some extra sales on XB1 in other countries as well. |
That hypothetically puts 13421 copies at breakpoint. Which would be great, but not the reality for most non indie games. Type 0 HD was at ~50k for XB1 in the US and I would say that was not enough to cover the cost of porting. Otherwise any game with the potential to sell 50k on XB1/PS4/PC would be auto ported, if the higher selling version was guaranteed to make a profit. Even late ports would be viable.
Whats interesting is a game like ROTKXIII. The game got ported to XB1 in Asia, but the developers figured the sales would be too low to cover the cost in the west. Here we have a game that was already made for XB1 and all they had to do was acquire copies to sell in the west, and add to the digital store. The english localization was already done to the PS4 version, so one would think it would be really easy and cheap. Yet it wasn't released in the west.
Edit: Switch version for the west was announced before XB1 version. So its not like Sony has a deal either.
shikamaru317 said:
I was thinking something along the lines of a full KH Collection, including 1.5, 2.5, and 2.8 all in one package, this Holiday on both PS4 and XB1. Of course we don't know if that is even possible, maybe Square paid for full or timed exclusivity for 1.5, 2.5, and 2.8, but assuming that they didn't pay for any exclusivity or that they only paid for 6 months of timed exclusivity, a full Collection should be possible by the Holiday season. It definitely seems like it's in Square's best interest to release the previous games on XB1 before they release KH3, the KH story is known for being pretty complicated and while there are XB1 owners like me who own other consoles and have played some of the previous games, there are plenty of other potential buyers on XB1 who won't have played any previous KH games. If they release KH3 as the only KH game on XB1 like they currently seem to be planning to do, I can't see it selling more than 300k worldwide in the first month, but if they were to release the full KH Collection on XB1 first, not only would they see some pretty good sales for the KH Collection on XB1, KH3 on XB1 would also sell more. |
Yeah, that may be the best case scenario. The million dollar question is how many of those "other potential buyers on XB1" are there? Whenever Abdiel chimed in on the FFXV and KH3 ratios on GAF, the KH3 ratio was extremely skewed (90/10). Maybe FFXV increased interest on KH3 from XB1 owners and that may be the ticket to convincing Square to port the collections to the XB1, who knows? It largely depends if Square saw a significant difference pre-FFXV and post-FFXV.
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