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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. January bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

Jranation on 26 January 2017
JRPGfan said:
Jranation said:

By 18m in WW or just in the US? 

PS4 18m ww. (my estimation of sales) (17.4m last year? and 2017 is the PS4's peak year imo, so it ll be more)

NS 9m ww first year (nintendo estimation?) (something about screen orders).

I dont see nintendo winning everything after its release all year long.

Oh okay. I thought Intrinsic was just talking about the US Monthly NPD. Then you suddenly brought WW sales to it. Am I mistaking something? 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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GribbleGrunger on 26 January 2017

4 hours since last update:

HARDWARE
#10 PS4s UC4 Bundle (same)
#34 NES (up 3)
#51 XB1s-500gb Battlefield Bundle (up 3)
#52 PS4Pro (same)
#78 NiS (up 1)*
#91 XB1s-500gb Minecraft Bundle (up 4)

SOFTWARE (pre-orders only)**
#04 NiS Breath Of The Wild (up 1)
#11 Mario Kart Delux (up 1)
#74 PS4 Digimon World (up 1)

PS4: 2 in the top 100 / 1 in the top 50 / 1 in the top 20 / 1 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
XB1: 2 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5
NiS:  1 in the top 100 / 0 in the top 50 / 0 in the top 20 / 0 in the top 10 / 0 in the top 5

Does not affect this month: *
Software outside of the month only gets added if it's in the top 20: **

The Switch still going up and down these charts is ridiculous. I'm still not going to call this month based on Amazon, I'm just waiting for the result to see if perhaps I can call the month based using Amazon in the future. If it gets Jan and Feb right then I'll invest again.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


Intrinsic on 26 January 2017
Jranation said:
JRPGfan said:

PS4 18m ww. (my estimation of sales) (17.4m last year? and 2017 is the PS4's peak year imo, so it ll be more)

NS 9m ww first year (nintendo estimation?) (something about screen orders).

I dont see nintendo winning everything after its release all year long.

Oh okay. I thought Intrinsic was just talking about the US Monthly NPD. Then you suddenly brought WW sales to it. Am I mistaking something? 

Yes, i was talking about the US NPD. I do not believe the NS will top the PS4 worldwide.



Insidb on 26 January 2017
GribbleGrunger said:

Don't underestimate a false 'next gen' narrative. All it takes is for a couple of XB1 devs to talk in those terms and the fans run with it on social media, leaving MS to just shrug and pretend they never said that. Having scanned through the GAF DF thread, I can tell you MANY XB1 owners are already arguing it's a 'next gen' console. It's not set in stone but the masons are readying their chizels.

What a brilliant f*cking analogy.



GribbleGrunger on 26 January 2017
Insidb said:

What a brilliant f*cking analogy.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


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Nuvendil on 26 January 2017
GribbleGrunger said:
Intrinsic said:

I see the first two going to PS4..... and everything else going to the NS. Don't forget that this is its first holiday. And I see people are already making the same mistakes withe the scorpio that they made with teh PS4pro. Its not going to sell nearly as much as some seem to think its gonna sell.

Don't underestimate a false 'next gen' narrative. All it takes is for a couple of XB1 devs to talk in those terms and the fans run with it on social media, leaving MS to just shrug and pretend they never said that. Having scanned through the GAF DF thread, I can tell you MANY XB1 owners are already arguing it's a 'next gen' console. It's not set in stone but the masons are readying their chizels.

Well the issue with that narrative is that people are going to want to see it heading to launch.  And the problem is Scorpio games are going to look eerily similar to PS4 Pro games, I guarantee it.  If the Xbox brand were half as healthy as it was in the mid to late 2000s, it might fly on brand power.  But let's just be brutally honest, even after 4 years of trying to piece itself back together after the Xbone reveal event, the brand is still a shadow of its former self in terms of raw strength.  And canceling exclusives, shutting down studios, and making all exclusives shared with Windows 10 isn't helping matters at all and undermines confidence that the Xbox brand will even still be hear much longer.

I anticipate it will have a big preorder rush, just like the PS4 Pro; it will hamper sales of standard SKUs just like the Pro; it will have a good launch just like the Pro; and then it will settle into a somewhat niche market catering to subset of console gamers, just like the Pro. And that's assuming it isn't too pricey. If it launches at $500 around the Holidays then I think it could completely skip that second to last step since I could easily see seasonal sales for the Switch at $250 and PS4 Pro for $350 or even $300 for Black Friday.  And given that, as I said, Scorpio games won't look much if at all better than Pro games...you get the idea.



JRPGfan on 26 January 2017
Jranation said:
JRPGfan said:

PS4 18m ww. (my estimation of sales) (17.4m last year? and 2017 is the PS4's peak year imo, so it ll be more)

NS 9m ww first year (nintendo estimation?) (something about screen orders).

I dont see nintendo winning everything after its release all year long.

Oh okay. I thought Intrinsic was just talking about the US Monthly NPD. Then you suddenly brought WW sales to it. Am I mistaking something? 

There is a corolation between the two.

Lets say in 2017 nintendo makes 9m switch units.

How many of those will sell in the USA? half? 4.5m

Lets say Playstation 4 sells 18,5m this year, how many will they sell in the USA? 1/3? thats like 6m.

Im just saying Nintendo Switch will win some months... but probably NOT all of them all year after its release.

I dont see why thats a issue to understand, it seems reasonable for me.

Yes Switch might win a few NPDs, but its not going to beat the PS4 overall sales in the US in 2017 I feel.

It might not even win more NPDs this year than the PS4 does.



Insidb on 26 January 2017
GribbleGrunger said:
Insidb said:

What a brilliant f*cking analogy.

Haha, someone butter this guy up, CUZ HE'S ON A ROLL!



GribbleGrunger on 26 January 2017
Nuvendil said:

Well the issue with that narrative is that people are going to want to see it heading to launch.  And the problem is Scorpio games are going to look eerily similar to PS4 Pro games, I guarantee it.  If the Xbox brand were half as healthy as it was in the mid to late 2000s, it might fly on brand power.  But let's just be brutally honest, even after 4 years of trying to piece itself back together after the Xbone reveal event, the brand is still a shadow of its former self in terms of raw strength.  And canceling exclusives, shutting down studios, and making all exclusives shared with Windows 10 isn't helping matters at all and undermines confidence that the Xbox brand will even still be hear much longer.

I anticipate it will have a big preorder rush, just like the PS4 Pro; it will hamper sales of standard SKUs just like the Pro; it will have a good launch just like the Pro; and then it will settle into a somewhat niche market catering to subset of console gamers, just like the Pro. And that's assuming it isn't too pricey. If it launches at $500 around the Holidays then I think it could completely skip that second to last step since I could easily see seasonal sales for the Switch at $250 and PS4 Pro for $350 or even $300 for Black Friday.  And given that, as I said, Scorpio games won't look much if at all better than Pro games...you get the idea.

I agree with many points you're making but there is a difference as I pointed out earlier and it's one of perception. When you go from the PS4 to the Pro you're going from 'the most powerful' to 'even more powerful'. When you go from the XB1 to the Scorpio you are going from 'the least powerful' to 'the most powerful'. I believe that is enough to encourage more current 'hardcore' XB1 owners to upgrade in order to at last have the upper hand in the hardware spec battle. The shape of what you are saying I agree with though, and it's going to be entertaining to see the realisation it wasn't the power but software library that heavily tipped the scales.



 

The PS5 Exists. 


costarica on 26 January 2017

Expecting to see Gran Turismo