Shadow1980 said:
Not once has anyone attempted to break things down by region in this thread. This is very important, as global sales never, ever tell us the whole story. For example, saying "The 3DS will not outsell the GBA" is not entirely true, nor does it explain why.
So, let's assess the situation by region. Here's lifetime sales of each Nintendo handheld, with 3DS estimates up to the end of September:
In all but one case, the market share split between NA and Europe was proportionally very similar. That one exception was the GBA. The GBA was a major phenomenon in America. While sales of the GBA declined by nearly identical amounts (47.8% and 46.8%, respectively) in Japan and Europe, the GBA came very close to matching the Game Boy. It sold only 6.5% fewer units, a vastly smaller decline than in Japan and Europe. Why the GBA was disproportionately more popular in America than elsewhere is uncertain. Perhaps Pokemon fever was just that much bigger here than elsewhere. But the fact remains that North America represents nearly half of all GBA sales worldwide. Had the GBA fallen by the same amount in NA, it would have sold only 22-23M.
The DS was a freak of nature, that once-in-a-lifetime system that utterly shatters all sales expectations. It is to handhelds what the PS2 is to home consoles. But the DS was not as strong relatively speaking in Japan as it was elsewhere. While the DS sold over 144% more units than the GBA in Europe, in Japan it sold only 94.6% more. While the DS surpassed the Game Boy in America and Europe by a considerable about (it sold 32.9% more than the GB in the former and 30% more in the latter), in Japan it just barely edged out the Game Boy. Nevertheless, the DS was a sales phenomenon unlike any other.
As for the 3DS, it has already far surpassed the GBA in Japan. It still stands a good chance of matching the GBA in Europe. The one region where it appears to be struggling is America. At this rate, it may at best sell only 24-25M units in NA. Compared to the GBA this appears downright pitiful, but as mentioned the GBA was vastly, disproportionately successful in America.
Oh, and let's not forget the PSP. It was the first and to date only successful non-Nintendo handheld. It sold at least 20M in the U.S., another 20M in Japan, and 24M in Europe. PlayStation's dominance of Europe may help explain why it did better there than in America and Japan, but the fact that it did well at all was surprising. The next best selling non-Nintendo handhelds are the Vita, which apparently hasn't even crested 15M yet (if VGC is accurate), and the Game Gear, which sold only 10.6M worldwide. That's a massive gap. The PSP's success makes it wholly unique among non-Nintendo handhelds. The fact that it was a contemporary of the DS severely inflated the overall size of the already inflated handheld market, with some 235M units sold between the two.
Given all these facts, what counts as "normal" or "healthy" sales for a handheld? What counts as anomalous? We only have four "generations" of Nintendo handhelds with which to measure this, and only one successful non-Nintendo handheld. That the DS sold more in five years than what the Game Boy did in 12, I don't think we should use that as a measure. It was simply out of the ordinary in every way. Nor should the GBA be used as a point of comparison, either, at least not for global or U.S. sales due to its unusual and massive success in that one market. But that doesn't leave us much to compare anything to besides the Game Boy, and it sold decently for years before spiking with the GB Color and then dying very quickly once the GBA was released. But its 12-year lifespan was vastly longer than any other handheld in history, and longer than most consoles (only the PS2 had a comparable lifetime of mainstream support). So, we have one system that carried the handheld market for the entirety of the 90s, another that was so crazy huge in just one country that nearly half its global sales came from there, and another than managed to pull 150 million units in just seven years, and another one that did uniquely well despite not being made by Nintendo.
You can easily make the case that there is no "normal" in the handheld market, which would mean that talk of a decline is largely unwarranted. The 3DS is pulling numbers that would be considered healthy for any home console. Perhaps that should be our measuring stick. The 3DS is already the #4 system ever in Japan, and will likely pass the PS2 to become #3. That's healthy. It should pull over 20M in Europe, which is good though not mindblowing. It should pull about 25M in NA, putting it ahead of the SNES but behind the PS3. While not remarkable, that's still good. Overall, it should sell somewhere in the 75-80M range globally by time it's discontinued, and that's a damn good lifetime total if I do say so myself. It's not DS good, but "DS good" should never be the measuring stick. The 3DS has done well for itself, as one would expect from a Nintendo handheld.
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I'm bowing to you shadow, you outargue many people here with this meticulous, illuminating and principally, unbiased post... Decline to be dead is different than to decline and stabilize to something viable like in the case of PC vs tablets. Also, you concur with me about how unfair is the comparison with ds, some people use it for a specific reason...
By the way don't be afraid of calling ds an anomaly, generally the 7th gen was an anomaly, especially for handheld consoles. From no sony handheld console and 81.5m gba ( okay lets say 100m because it was ''replaced'' early, even though fat ds didn't affect its sales, ds lite after two years did it, pokemon emerald was released in 2006 ) to 236m handheld consoles, 154m and 82m respectively.
They can base anywhere else if they want their aspect about the alleged death of handheld console and yet the keep repeat this comparison. Yeah I should have predicted that just because PS3 sold 70m less than PS2, the next PS4 would sell less than ps3, and PS5 less than PS4, nice flawed logic.
Also, handheld console market is only Nintendo, when we do comparisons it would be right to make them just with the previous Nintendo handheld consoles, plus not just the global LT sales...Europe, japan e.tc. In addition, collating sales per time period ( e.g gba three years vs 3ds three years ) by taking into account the circumstances of each gen,.
Anyway, I want to remind you that GB is two gen handheld console. Few people are recognizng this.
GB and GBC, gbc came after nine years and had its own game library... I'm reiterating myself, but think people, Pokemon silver and gold weren't compatible with gb for example...
Nintendo shouldn't have combined their sales in my opinion!
What If Pokemon sun and Moon were new 3ds exclusives? ;) Well, the games likely wouldn't sell as much as they would sell if they were compatibe with all models but it would boost a lot the hardware sales because of those who want to play it, upgrading.
3ds sold 15m in 2011, 14.8m in 2012, 12.9m in 2013, 7.63 in 2014, 7.9m in 2015 and is probably going to sell more than 2015 thanks to Pokemon go+Pokemon sun and moon, remarkable stability since 2014. ( in calendar years )
None of those who doom the (ultimately Nintendo HC ) handheld console refer to the one extremely succesful Nintnedo ( okay Nintendo wasn't directly involved ) mobile game that increased significantly 3ds sales and made the commensurate game in its core exprerience to break records. If Pokemon S/M outsell the pokemon games of DS, what will the say?
P.s Even if handheld consoles market evaporates completely in the west, Japan will be the reason why handheld consoles ( ultimately Nintendo HC ) will always exist! 3DS is on tradk to sell 2m there in 2016, only down by 300k , in a market where it has hit almost complete saturation and will probably end up with 25m lt sales there.
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