By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming - Predict FFXV sales ratio for PS4/X1

 

Ratio PS4/X1

>95% 55 13.25%
 
>90% 77 18.55%
 
>85% 93 22.41%
 
>80% 94 22.65%
 
>70% 67 16.14%
 
<70% 29 6.99%
 
Total:415
DonFerrari on 11 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
Swordmasterman said:

And it seems that you doesn't consider the fact that Final Fantasy is one of the biggest franchises in Japan and the actual data that we have about Pre-orders. Even on the USA(where is the majority of the Xbox Ones sold) things aren't looking good for the Xbox One's version.

 

Would be awesome if this game sells more than Fallout 4 sold on the Xbox One, with the Xbox One version. Since, if that happens, the game will surpass 25 millions of units sold on the PS4 alone.

Not necessarily. Recently almost everything points out most Xbox gamers seem to be moving towards digital media. With a game like this one, it makes sense to, not to mention I am sure it will be more popular on the PS4, but not horribly so... 

The way I see it, I think 8.5 and above for PS4 and 1.7 and above for XONE sounds likely since the ratio seems not different from what I've forecasted for other games. 

 

Aura7541 said:

If we were to predict the US/UK ratio, but I believe the OP is asking for the worldwide ratio...

I stand by what I said. 

DonFerrari said:

 

It's more possible that less sales are made on PS4 because of westernization of the game than more is made on X1. People that never played or liked FF I to X-3 won't magically decide they want to buy in droves FF XV now only because this entry is more western.

FF isn't the same thing every year. Each installment is a completely different game. If people buy things solely for the label, then we're beyond salvation... 

 

You don't need to teach me about FF. But to expect common folk to look at FF XV and think "ow I never played the other previous games, so I'll buy this one" is quite farfetched. For main reason, people are afraid that they will miss the history because they haven't played the previous one and for second, if they weren't interested in the genre before there is very little reason for them to have a sudden burst of interest just because it became more western, they already have wrpg to play.

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
Swordmasterman on 11 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
Swordmasterman said:

And it seems that you doesn't consider the fact that Final Fantasy is one of the biggest franchises in Japan and the actual data that we have about Pre-orders. Even on the USA(where is the majority of the Xbox Ones sold) things aren't looking good for the Xbox One's version.

 

Would be awesome if this game sells more than Fallout 4 sold on the Xbox One, with the Xbox One version. Since, if that happens, the game will surpass 25 millions of units sold on the PS4 alone.

Not necessarily. Recently almost everything points out most Xbox gamers seem to be moving towards digital media. With a game like this one, it makes sense to, not to mention I am sure it will be more popular on the PS4, but not horribly so... 

The way I see it, I think 8.5 and above for PS4 and 1.7 and above for XONE sounds likely since the ratio seems not different from what I've forecasted for other games. 

 

Aura7541 said:

If we were to predict the US/UK ratio, but I believe the OP is asking for the worldwide ratio...

I stand by what I said. 

DonFerrari said:

 

It's more possible that less sales are made on PS4 because of westernization of the game than more is made on X1. People that never played or liked FF I to X-3 won't magically decide they want to buy in droves FF XV now only because this entry is more western.

FF isn't the same thing every year. Each installment is a completely different game. If people buy things solely for the label, then we're beyond salvation... 

The PS4 is more popular in every region worldwide, it may not have the same % of digital due to the worldwide success against USA nd UK Success of the Xbox Onem, why would it sell more on the Xone if the genre is non-existent on the console? More in the sense of not being 80-20 or 90-10.

Metal gear sold over 1m on Xbox, I expect ff to sell less.



Aura7541 on 11 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
Aura7541 said:

If we were to predict the US/UK ratio, but I believe the OP is asking for the worldwide ratio...

I stand by what I said. 

Sure thing, but my conclusions are based on assessments from people who manage B&M retailers. Yours is based on wishful thinking, to put it rather bluntly. For instance, your prediction is based off of your forecasts of other games. Making a prediction off of another prediction is not a good idea. Now, if you were basing your prediction off of historical numbers, then sure, your argument would have some credibility. However, you didn't do that.



AsGryffynn on 11 November 2016
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Not necessarily. Recently almost everything points out most Xbox gamers seem to be moving towards digital media. With a game like this one, it makes sense to, not to mention I am sure it will be more popular on the PS4, but not horribly so... 

The way I see it, I think 8.5 and above for PS4 and 1.7 and above for XONE sounds likely since the ratio seems not different from what I've forecasted for other games. 

 

I stand by what I said. 

FF isn't the same thing every year. Each installment is a completely different game. If people buy things solely for the label, then we're beyond salvation... 

 

You don't need to teach me about FF. But to expect common folk to look at FF XV and think "ow I never played the other previous games, so I'll buy this one" is quite farfetched. For main reason, people are afraid that they will miss the history because they haven't played the previous one and for second, if they weren't interested in the genre before there is very little reason for them to have a sudden burst of interest just because it became more western, they already have wrpg to play.

Why not? The vast majority of those who bought Fallout 4 had never bought or played Fallout 3 (and don't even bring up the original two games). Or did you really think most longtime Fallout and TES fans buy games in console? 

They already have a WRPG to play, and this doesn't count because? 

Swordmasterman said:
AsGryffynn said:

Not necessarily. Recently almost everything points out most Xbox gamers seem to be moving towards digital media. With a game like this one, it makes sense to, not to mention I am sure it will be more popular on the PS4, but not horribly so... 

The way I see it, I think 8.5 and above for PS4 and 1.7 and above for XONE sounds likely since the ratio seems not different from what I've forecasted for other games. 

 

I stand by what I said. 

FF isn't the same thing every year. Each installment is a completely different game. If people buy things solely for the label, then we're beyond salvation... 

The PS4 is more popular in every region worldwide, it may not have the same % of digital due to the worldwide success against USA nd UK Success of the Xbox Onem, why would it sell more on the Xone if the genre is non-existent on the console? More in the sense of not being 80-20 or 90-10.

Metal gear sold over 1m on Xbox, I expect ff to sell less.

Quote me where I said "it'd sell more on the Xbox One" because I don't recall saying that. 

And MGS is smaller than FF. Stop treating this game as "Japanese game 387" and start treating it as "Fallout 4.5" you guys... 

Aura7541 said:
AsGryffynn said:

I stand by what I said. 

Sure thing, but my conclusions are based on assessments from people who manage B&M retailers. Yours is based on wishful thinking, to put it rather bluntly. For instance, your prediction is based off of your forecasts of other games. Making a prediction off of another prediction is not a good idea. Now, if you were basing your prediction off of historical numbers, then sure, your argument would have some credibility. However, you didn't do that.

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 



DonFerrari on 11 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:

 

You don't need to teach me about FF. But to expect common folk to look at FF XV and think "ow I never played the other previous games, so I'll buy this one" is quite farfetched. For main reason, people are afraid that they will miss the history because they haven't played the previous one and for second, if they weren't interested in the genre before there is very little reason for them to have a sudden burst of interest just because it became more western, they already have wrpg to play.

Why not? The vast majority of those who bought Fallout 4 had never bought or played Fallout 3 (and don't even bring up the original two games). Or did you really think most longtime Fallout and TES fans buy games in console? 

They already have a WRPG to play, and this doesn't count because? 

Swordmasterman said:

The PS4 is more popular in every region worldwide, it may not have the same % of digital due to the worldwide success against USA nd UK Success of the Xbox Onem, why would it sell more on the Xone if the genre is non-existent on the console? More in the sense of not being 80-20 or 90-10.

Metal gear sold over 1m on Xbox, I expect ff to sell less.

Quote me where I said "it'd sell more on the Xbox One" because I don't recall saying that. 

And MGS is smaller than FF. Stop treating this game as "Japanese game 387" and start treating it as "Fallout 4.5" you guys... 

Aura7541 said:

Sure thing, but my conclusions are based on assessments from people who manage B&M retailers. Yours is based on wishful thinking, to put it rather bluntly. For instance, your prediction is based off of your forecasts of other games. Making a prediction off of another prediction is not a good idea. Now, if you were basing your prediction off of historical numbers, then sure, your argument would have some credibility. However, you didn't do that.

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 

 

Nothing invalidates that they already had WRPG on the console, just that there is no evidence whatsoever that FF XV will have a better comparison on FF XV than it had on FF XIII 1-3. those were abysmal on X360 even if they had the tv for it.

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Around the Network
DonFerrari on 11 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:

 

You don't need to teach me about FF. But to expect common folk to look at FF XV and think "ow I never played the other previous games, so I'll buy this one" is quite farfetched. For main reason, people are afraid that they will miss the history because they haven't played the previous one and for second, if they weren't interested in the genre before there is very little reason for them to have a sudden burst of interest just because it became more western, they already have wrpg to play.

Why not? The vast majority of those who bought Fallout 4 had never bought or played Fallout 3 (and don't even bring up the original two games). Or did you really think most longtime Fallout and TES fans buy games in console? 

They already have a WRPG to play, and this doesn't count because? 

Swordmasterman said:

The PS4 is more popular in every region worldwide, it may not have the same % of digital due to the worldwide success against USA nd UK Success of the Xbox Onem, why would it sell more on the Xone if the genre is non-existent on the console? More in the sense of not being 80-20 or 90-10.

Metal gear sold over 1m on Xbox, I expect ff to sell less.

Quote me where I said "it'd sell more on the Xbox One" because I don't recall saying that. 

And MGS is smaller than FF. Stop treating this game as "Japanese game 387" and start treating it as "Fallout 4.5" you guys... 

Aura7541 said:

Sure thing, but my conclusions are based on assessments from people who manage B&M retailers. Yours is based on wishful thinking, to put it rather bluntly. For instance, your prediction is based off of your forecasts of other games. Making a prediction off of another prediction is not a good idea. Now, if you were basing your prediction off of historical numbers, then sure, your argument would have some credibility. However, you didn't do that.

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 

 

Nothing invalidates that they already had WRPG on the console, just that there is no evidence whatsoever that FF XV will have a better comparison on FF XV than it had on FF XIII 1-3. those were abysmal on X360 even if they had the tv for it.

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

AsGryffynn on 12 November 2016
DonFerrari said:
AsGryffynn said:

Why not? The vast majority of those who bought Fallout 4 had never bought or played Fallout 3 (and don't even bring up the original two games). Or did you really think most longtime Fallout and TES fans buy games in console? 

They already have a WRPG to play, and this doesn't count because? 

Quote me where I said "it'd sell more on the Xbox One" because I don't recall saying that. 

And MGS is smaller than FF. Stop treating this game as "Japanese game 387" and start treating it as "Fallout 4.5" you guys... 

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 

 

Nothing invalidates that they already had WRPG on the console, just that there is no evidence whatsoever that FF XV will have a better comparison on FF XV than it had on FF XIII 1-3. those were abysmal on X360 even if they had the tv for it.

To be honest, consensus is that those were awful and the complete opposite of what fans of WRPGs were expecting (open world, non linear, action RPG)... 



Aura7541 on 12 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 

But the other games aren't FFXV. What other JRPGs are there on the XB1 currently other than Type-0? Stranger of the Sword City, where you can get it physically on the Vita, but not on the XB1? You say your predictions are based on actual data, but did not bother to show me these data. In contrast, I based my prediction off of FFXIII numbers from Chartz and Aquamarine's statement that Chartz's numbers of older games are close. I showed assessments from Abdiel, who has numbers of Best Buy. What have you presented?

And why are you bringing up Skyrim, GTA5, and Fallout 4? They are not of the same genre as FFXV. What made you think that an apples to oranges comparison bolsters your argument?

To close this response, let me tell you a little story:

Bandai Namco released a certain JRPG in Japan on the Vita. That JRPG was Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth. A lot of Digimon overseas really liked how the game looked and the content it provided, but Bandai Namco had no plans to localize the game. As a result, the fans started a petition on Change.org to get the publisher's attention and eventually, Bandai Namco took notice of the fanbase's enthusiasm. They localized Cyber Sleuth for both the PS4 and Vita and guess what? The fans backed their talk. First month sales of the retail PS4 version in the US alone far exceeded the amount of signatures of the petition. Bandai Namco North America was pleased with the sales that they went out of their way to upload a video on YouTube to express their thanks.

So what is my point with this story? The Playstation userbase demonstrated its enthusiasm for JRPGs and is willing to put down the money once those games are released overseas. This is a large difference between the PS and Xbox userbases and Abdiel reiterated this notion in his assessments. The drastic difference in attitudes towards JRPGs between the two userbases will play a large role on the FFXV ratio.



AsGryffynn on 12 November 2016
Aura7541 said:
AsGryffynn said:

My prediction is based on actual data fed by other games. The ratio for most games this gen hasn't been beyond 4 to 1 so far. The only exception I recall was a remaster of a PSP game and perhaps MGSV, who did poorly in comparison to what this game is projected to do (the game barely broke 5M sales). I am not predicting using predictions. I am predicting by taking genre averages (and doing away with the genre divide) from games that have been out for at least a year. 

Or are Skyrim SE, GTA5 and Fallout 4 yet to release? 

Whoever thought people should be allowed to speak freely must be regretting what he said now... 

But the other games aren't FFXV. What other JRPGs are there on the XB1 currently other than Type-0? Stranger of the Sword City, where you can get it physically on the Vita, but not on the XB1? You say your predictions are based on actual data, but did not bother to show me these data. In contrast, I based my prediction off of FFXIII numbers from Chartz and Aquamarine's statement that Chartz's numbers of older games are close. I showed assessments from Abdiel, who has numbers of Best Buy. What have you presented?

And why are you bringing up Skyrim, GTA5, and Fallout 4? They are not of the same genre as FFXV. What made you think that an apples to oranges comparison bolsters your argument?

To close this response, let me tell you a little story:

Bandai Namco released a certain JRPG in Japan on the Vita. That JRPG was Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth. A lot of Digimon overseas really liked how the game looked and the content it provided, but Bandai Namco had no plans to localize the game. As a result, the fans started a petition on Change.org to get the publisher's attention and eventually, Bandai Namco took notice of the fanbase's enthusiasm. They localized Cyber Sleuth for both the PS4 and Vita and guess what? The fans backed their talk. First month sales of the retail PS4 version in the US alone far exceeded the amount of signatures of the petition. Bandai Namco North America was pleased with the sales that they went out of their way to upload a video on YouTube to express their thanks.

So what is my point with this story? The Playstation userbase demonstrated its enthusiasm for JRPGs and is willing to put down the money once those games are released overseas. This is a large difference between the PS and Xbox userbases and Abdiel reiterated this notion in his assessments. The drastic difference in attitudes towards JRPGs between the two userbases will play a large role on the FFXV ratio.

"And why are you bringing up Skyrim, GTA5 and Fallout 4? They are not of the same genre as FFXV."

Ah, there's the old PS4 spirit! You see, if this was FFXIII, Tales of Berseria or heck, P5, I'd be inclined to agree with you, but unless the aesthetic of the main cast scares people out (and if so, the gaming fandom has collapsed in a most spectacular way), FFXV has more in common with Fallout 4 than it does with past FF titles. It's an action RPG, with an open world, very Western themes, a photorealistic ambiance and character design and non linear storyline. I might as well be describing the next Elder Scrolls game. 

I will spell it out for you... 

By anything except main cast design and the dev team behind, FINAL FANTASY XV IS NOT A JRPG! 

Or it is one, but it has as much in common with JRPGs as it does with WRPGs... Labels aside of course. 



DonFerrari on 12 November 2016
AsGryffynn said:
DonFerrari said:

 

Nothing invalidates that they already had WRPG on the console, just that there is no evidence whatsoever that FF XV will have a better comparison on FF XV than it had on FF XIII 1-3. those were abysmal on X360 even if they had the tv for it.

To be honest, consensus is that those were awful and the complete opposite of what fans of WRPGs were expecting (open world, non linear, action RPG)... 

What are you talking about man? You were saying the public already have WRPG to play and I'm waiting to see how that impact what a JRPG like FF XV would do. We have seem time and again the big step of sales on japanese games between sony and ms



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."