Am I the only one who doesn't believe we should be lumping the Pro and Scorpio in with the PS4 and Scorpio count anyway? Given how much time has passed, the new features promised (some degree of 4k and VR), and how drastically the hardware has improved from the originals the Pro and Scorpio both fit just about every idea we have of a "new generation", and the Nx will be conveniently releasing in the same timeframe.
With THAT comparison in mind, I do believe the Scorpio can perform waaay better against the Pro than the Xbox1 did against the PS4. The Pro might have a difficult-to-overcome head start by releasing early, though.
The main thing for me is that I do not expect the Scorpio to do well abroad, but there's exceedingly little brand loyalty in North America. Seriously, we've gone from Atari 2600 to propping up Intellivision/Colecovision to NES/Snes to Sega Genesis to Playstation PS1 to Xbox 360/Wii and then back to Playstation PS4... whichever offer seems most appealing gets the sales here it seems.
If the Scorpio releases with superior hardware and a competitive price I think it could easily win back much of the North American market. The catch here is if the PS VR looks really cool, as then I suspect people will stick around for that. I've already seen lots of commercials for the VR lately (not showing any games but showing how mindblown the people who try it are) which is a very smart move by Sony imo.
So uh, imo Sony will continue to lead but the lead 3ish years from now will probably be smaller than it is now. I'm curious to see how well the Nx does as well... Sony maintaining over 50% market share seems very unlikely to me, but the VR COULD be their trump card, in which case it may be feasible.
Still, if I had to predict, I think Scorpio will begin turning the tide specifically in the North American market (i.e. largest market).
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