Well firstly we need to seperate this into America / Europe and Japan. In the West, PS3 will do well. It won't reach PS2 levels but it will still do ok. Madden, GTA, EA games in general etc will keep the console strong. However, people comparing to X360 launch and saying PS3 is better are missing a couple of points. 1. It is only marginally better, and only due to having more units available 2. The 360 has a 12 month head start. Now you may not think that means much (around 4m in actual units in the US) but it is significant. In that time, Microsoft have been able to build a strong reputation and some great exclusives. There are now loads of strong titles on the way for 360 and sales will just grow. You have to compare the situation as it stands now - a developer is more likely to take their big exclusive title to 360 than PS3. Same happened with PS1 and N64 - N64 launched much stronger and almost caught up with PS1 totals in just 3-4 months. The difference was that despite massive hit after hit from Nintendo, Sony had many many more games out in 97-98. Most of which were not in the same league at the big N64 titles, but the sheer volume and variety from having 12 months head start and many more games in the pipeline was enough. This time around, PS3 doesn't even have the stellar lineup the N64 had and 360 is arguably in a stronger position that PS1 was when N64 launched. Ps3 will do well in the west, but 360 will be number 1 (unless Wii really does the business here as well). Japan is another story alltogether. Here PS3 has sold less in 2 months than PS2 did in the first day, and it is not a supply issue. Over the last 2 years, Japan more than any other region has seen a massive shift with the success of the DS and Nintendo in general. Sales in Japan have been declining for the last 7-8 years until 2006. Wii looks to continue the same philosophy as the DS with innovative, different games while PS3 offers little over PS2 at this point for Japanese gamers other than FF XIII. In Japan, PS3 stand no chance at reaching 20m levels, 6-7m looking more likely at the moment - about on par with N64 and Saturn. Unfortunately, as others have noted, Sony are making the same mistakes with PS3 as PSP. The price, the blatant attempt to push Blu-Ray by using their large gaming audience (as with UMD), a general lack of innovation in the upcoming titles (with the exception of Resistance and a couple of others). They are abandoning everything that made the PS1 a success in the first place - affordable price, easy to develop for, welcoming to 3rd parties, large variety of games, innovative new directions for gaming. Sony are in trouble. For a company who have so effortlessly dominated the home console market for the last 10 years things are looking very bad.

Well we will see what happens .The PS3 may be selling because of the Playstation brand alone ,Ok ,but thats the key issue .It has managed to outdo the X360 launch in its worst scenario possible .Come march the good games will start to appear and at a very fast pace ,several each month and including some exclusives . You may believe whatever you want but mark my words ;when the PS3 is around 4.5 million sold worlwide it will be way sooner than september as the X360 did .And once it is in its three markets(march ,plus Australia ) it will erode month after month the X360 head start . If come september it isnt at 4.5 million then I am a fool and you can call me fanboy ,but if in 4-5 months from now it has more than those numbers (3 million more than data at 14 january and including the European and Australian launch ) then you must admit I was right and its selling pace is higher than the X360 .

---------------------------------------------------- This is just incorrect. Every console manufacturer since Nintendo have maintained a monopoly over the actaul manufacturing of games. ---------------------------------------------------- Um, yeah... How is this different from what I said? I mentioned Ninty's lock-out chip, and that Sony set a new standard by focusing so much on profits from third party game sales. ---------------------------------------------------- Nintendo lost because they had a seperate business of selling the physical cartridges which they maintained a monopoly over. The CD's offered by Sony were much cheaper than cartridges and that more than any other reason is why the PSX beat out the N64. ---------------------------------------------------- This was part of it, but it wasn't the only thing. Nintendo in general had never thought of third parties as being as important as Sony did. Ninty never thought of the quantity of titles being available as being more important than the quality. They entered the generation limiting third parties to 5 releases a year, for Pete's sake. Sticking with carts was typical of the arrogance and rigid traditionalism Nintendo had at that point in time, but they did many things to drive devs away. And they still crushed all the other CD-based game systems of the day. ---------------------------------------------------- U.S. developers will utimately port the best XBOX 360 games to PS3 (and PS3 games to XBOX 360) unless they are paid not too. The systems are just too similar to maintain exclusivity. This means that Sony will not dominate in the U.S. market they way that have in the past, and may cause them to lose the U.S. market. ---------------------------------------------------- They aren't just too similar, they're too expensive to develop games for. I agree totally otherwise. ---------------------------------------------------- Japanese developers will probably choose to develop for PS3 first and then port to XBOX 360 (if at all) because it represents a risky investment due to the failure of 360 in Japan. In other words if a Japanese developer is unsure about the worldwide success of their title, it may not be worth the risk if it will only sell a few thousand units. This might lead to the smaller Japanese development teams to not consider the XBOX 360 at all. This is the reason that I believe that the PS3 will win this generation in worldwide sales. Equal support among U.S. developers, but inferior support in Japan. ---------------------------------------------------- I agree with this. But the Japanese have a history of jumping from one console to another very quickly. The N64 just collapsed compared to what the SNES did, and the same could happen from PS2 to Wii, especially considering what DS has done there. If Japanese devs are only choosing between PS3 and Wii, I think they're going to choose Wii a lot. I mean, between those two consoles, Wii has the bigger install base both WW and in Japan, its much cheaper to develop for, and its more friendly to new IPs for a variety of reasons. ---------------------------------------------------- The Wii is fun for now, but I count myself in the pessimistic camp, having owned every Nintendo console until now. I don't believe 3rd parties will support the console for the next 5 years, and I just think that controller mechanic will get old. Wii is the easiest console to develop for, but it is the hardest to port multi platform games for. The graphics of any 3 system game (like Madden) will need its own development staff to downgrade the graphics and add features that take advantage of the Wiimote. ---------------------------------------------------- Being hard to go port games to or from Wii can to a degree actually be an advantage, as long as Wii is performing well. Developers may decide it is more cost-effective to develop multiple exclusives for Wii than to do expensive and time-consuming ports, where the fundamental gameplay might not even transfer. Of course it takes Wii out of the running for games like GTA, MGS or FF, but honestly, would Nintendo have a chance at those games anyways? No way. Even if devs wanted to bring games 3-platform, Microsoft would dig into its pockets (as it has in the past), to keep Ninty from getting them. Also, I find it difficult to believe that the controller will get old, when we are already seeing prolific use of three vastly different control schemes: stand and swing games like Wii Sports, NES style controls with the Wiimote on its side, and traditional 3D games with the nunchuk and pointer functionality.

Some idiot(s) posting previously, as an attempt to show their distaste for anyone who poses a simple question, threw mud at Nintendo "fanboys." It amazes me that people lie to themselves so harshly. Here's the thing: SALES NUMBERS AND TRENDS DON'T LIE!!! Use the DS/PsP market shares to pattern the Wii/Ps3 sales, if you'd like. You might be the most accurate. Bio-whateverthehellyournameis-- get over yourself. Your obvious ignorance of market trends is only rivaled by your inherent inability to waiver on your pro-anything non-Nintendo mindset. Visiting wikipedia doesn't immediately make you a sales expert. The original poster brought up a sound thesis, and asked for the opinions of others. He has in no way attempted to argue Sony's impotence, as it's a touchy subject (apparently with you, anyway). Making rash generalizations about a fan/consumer base is ignorant and SCREAMS bigotry. You'd do well to shut up, and go play your Ps3. (By the way, before you yell FANBOY!!! HE'S A FCKING FANBOY!!!, I play every system. God forbid that be a possibility.)

Some remarks Handheld trends not neccesarily imply console trends .The Game Boy smashed the Lynx and the Game Gear adn the Super Nes was a hit but didnt do the same thing with the Genesis/Megadrive ,the Game Boy Colour smashed the rivals but the N64 ended up way behind the PS1 and the GBA reedited the GB success but that didnt mean the Cube doing better than being 3 out of 3 (or 4 if you count the Dreamcast ) .The DS is simply reediting the GBA success :it is selling more than the GBA in Japan ,slighty more in Europe and definitely less in NA .The Wii may triumph or not but not depending on what the DS does ...in fact for some people the DS may calm their Nintendo needs and wont buy the Wii .Everything on this subjet will be seen in some 5 months once the selling patterns are easily perceivable .Even if it ended up first overall it would be in a market of its own (partygames ,motion sensing sports simulations ,funny games ) and there would be another console next to it for the high graphics and traditional games and the hardcore gamer markets .Even if the PS3 follows the same path as the PSP that would mean some 21 million in one year and a half ....way outdoing the X360 .In any case ,everything remains to be seen . The Ps3 sales arent spectacular but are hardly bad .1 million in the US right now with the strong hardware shortages at launch is a good number ,and 600 000 in Japan may be not what we would call a smash hit but 9 weeks after its release they are comparable to the PSP ,inferior to the DS ,Wii and PS2 and way superior to the N64,Saturn ,Game Cube ,Playstation 1( 330 000 sold 9 weeks after release ) ,Dreamcast( 499500 and it was considered a good start ) ,Xbox ,X360 and all the others .Suggesting it will do 6-7 milllion in its lifetime when the PSP is right now at 5 million ( not even its midlife and being its worst market due to the japanese DS onslaught ).....well it doestn have much sense .Even flopping it will reach 10 million there . The "PS3 can be seen in stores so it is flopping " argument is weak to say the least .If Sony is providing as it says 100K consoles per week and there was 200K from the days 31 dec and 2 january still unsold then expecting it to be sold out everywhere would mean monstruous sales for January (around 600K in a otherwise weak month ) .Some of you just assume that if the console is in the stores and doesnt sell more is because no one more wants the console and it has fullfilled its demand ....after that logic it shouldnt sell one more unit .After that logic once the X360 was in the stores in april that would have meant everyone that wanted one had managed one and shouldnt have bought any console in the following months .It isnt that way ,as it is clear ,and this kind of thinking is a bit absurd as I hope to have demostrated with my examples .Even with the PS3 in the stores ,it is sold out in more than half the stores and the remaining have very few units .We must expect the data from NPD for January in some 20 days to see whats happening ...maybe it is selling poorly as you want to suggest or maybe Sony is putting them out there at a good rate and the sales being very strong just cant make it sold out everywhere .The fact that it is still sold at more than retail price in Amazon and sometimes in Ebay shows some sign that the availibity isnt as wide as some would suggest . Forums where fanboys rant and jump to the other necks are a dime a dozen .We dont need to convert this in another "Sony Doomed !" or "M$ sucks !" forum .This page has serious data (even with the counter at the main page that is quite wrong even uptdating it ) and that we should discuss .For the moment PS3 sales are solid although unespectacular ,the PSP is doing good and wont be dissappearing anytime soon and all that "Sony doomed !" thrash talk is more wishful thinking than anything .If the PSP or PS3 descended under 10 000 units per week and couldnt react even with a price drop in Japan or didnt manage 100K in NA in a month then we could start speaking about the consoles being in danger and Sony threatened and due to make their act toghether .

Ciao, I'm new here. I'm an italian ( like Super Mario :D ) gamer so forgive my bad english . Catofellow and Diomedes wrong compare Nintendo's handheld to Nintendo's console of the past. Gameboy was a "disruptive product" whereas Snes was a "competitive product". If Gameboy created a market and grew the industry, Snes competed with Genesis and lose marketshare though remain leader of the market. Gameboy color and advance were "competitive products" successfull thanks to no-competitions ( "sustain product" ). N64 was a "competitive product" with a inferior Business strategy. Ps1 gained 1st position thanks to superior Business model. At that time Sony undestood the market and the rivals better than Nintendo and Sega did. GC was also a very "competitive product" this is why the GC is a real failure despite its profitability. Now Nintendo DS is a "Disruptive System" ( DS ). PSP is a real gameboy-line killer but Nintendo with a "paradigm shift" destroy the market of gameboy-line and PSP so PSP is a worth product but irrilevant in the new trend up of the successfull "touch generation". If you compare hardware sales of PSP in 2005 to 2006 you can note that in Japan and USA the PSP trend is down, plus software sales are lower than DS's software sale and DS developement cost is lower than PSP. Nintendo DS' success is not based on Gameboy's fortune : 1- It's name is Nintendo Ds , not Gameboy DS or advance 2 etc... 2- DS outsold GBA sales in the first 2 years with the exception that at the time of GBA there wasn't a powerful rival like Sony. 3- DS is full of entire new games whereas PSP and GBA are full of porting. Wii strategy is like Nes and DS that is a "Disruptive strategy", this model it's the best counter-attack to vertical monopoly like Playstation. Wii don't compete with PS3 but can change the focus of industry ( gamers, journalism, financial resource, developers etc..). If Wii do it then PS3 and Sony will be doom because Sony bet the firm with PS3. The revolution talked by Nintendo's managers isn't the wiimote but the new "user experience" and the new business model. Diomedes cites japanese launch sale of past console, so I think that he can't see over the surface of the VG business : Dreamcast was already dead before it was even launched. N64 and Saturn failed to understand the market. 80% of the success of a console depend to the 4 year pre-launch because in this 4 years manufacter shape the business model of his product. Smart poster judge PS3's business model faults not PS3 initial result: 1- PS3 is expensive for a console but is cheap for a blueray-player. But what is PS3 really ? Ps3 is a trojan horse for Sony product like bravia, Blueray, cinema and music studios, PSP and most important of all for its future digital distribution. 2- PS3 developement cost and time are greater than Wii ( this is a key-factor for Wii ) 3- PS3 strong loss on retail price mean that royalties are more expensive. Wii hardware sale gain mean the opposite ( this is a key-factor for Wii ). 4- PS3 is a fantastic successor of PS-line ( very powerfull ) but customers could be bored by PS-line ( 12 long years ). This is why Wii have high hype. 5- PS3 is indeed a computer. Its present and future functionalities tend to replace thats of PC because Sony want that digital distribuition pass through PS3 and not PC whereas MS want it pass through PC-Windows this is the first motive for MS entrance in gaming market 5 years ago. Can Sony do this "paradigm shift" ? Ps3 isn't a product for a gamer but is for a gamer that want an elettronic product ( convergence ). Wii is for everyone ( this is a key-factor for Wii ) 6- Sony is trying to teach to costumers that Blueray is needed for gaming and 1080p is a feature worth the retail price, this is a stupid marketing behavior. Nintendo approach is Sony's opposite : "Playing is beliving". I'm very glad to read Aston's post, at least one that understand why N64 was a failure. I hope to chat with you in the future.