Yeah but the PS1 and 2 wee winners... the PS3 and PSP don´t look like winners to me so I think its save to say they won´t have legs once new products show up...

I think they will have to keep the ps3 going for 10 years. their core customers are those who want l33t graphics more than anything else. if the ps3 had a 5 year life span the ps4 would cost like $2000 in order to make a machine that can provide a large enough increase in power for consumers to want to upgrade from their ps3.

nintendo is really in the best position for the next gen because they have a lot more room to make improvements while still having their product be affordable. i'm really interested to see what sony/ms do next gen. their core customers are the graphics whores so i think they will be pissed off if the next gens graphics are not a substantial improvement but my god - how much will it cost to build a machine/develop a game that is that graphically detailed.

technology is upgrading faster and faster. 10 years is a long, long time.

I think it will survive, just not in the form that most people think of here.

Who here knew that the NeoGeo still recieved a few new games in the 2001-2004 time frame? That's when the last game was released for the system. I'm not talking homebrew, either.

So that systems technically lasted 14 years (it was released in 1990) with new releases, if that's our technical definition of "lifespan," but I doubt that's what many of us have in mind. Look at the PS2; eight years into its lifespan, and significant releases for it have dried up considerably. It's still selling well, it's still got games coming out, but looking just two years ago, every major game being released on consoles was on the PS2, with practically no exception. Now, I can't think of any major titles that will be multi-million sellers, save multi-plats such as Madden and Guitar Hero. Nothing original or exclusive.

So, yes. I expect a couple if not all of the 3 current-gen systems will still be receiving games in  7 years. I also expect that support to be profoundly less appealing than it is now, with few exclusives or major releases from the top development teams. That's alive, in a way. They'll still be selling, and in the market. But if the suggestion is that the PS3 (or 360 or Wii or whatever) will still be at the top of its game with no replacement in the works or on the near horizon, you're fooling yourself. 

A slim line PS3 will be out I believe in two years time.

Ya know what, i really don't think 10 years for a console is too long.

From the Japan launch (March 4th, 2000) the PS2 is 8 years and 1 month old now and worldwide its selling at a level just below the 360.
From the American Launch (Oct. 26, 2000) it is 7 Years and 5 months old.

I can see PS2 selling well until its 9th year and then really fading away into its 10th and final year.


As for the PSP, I think 8 years is a more reasonable target. It is 3 years and 4 months old now (Japan launch). I think we will see a PSP2 by late 2010 when the PSP is just under 6 years old.

The 10 year cycle is marketing jargon. A system will last for X amount of year only because consumers still demand the unit, not because Sony says so.


There is also contention between Sony's intended meaning for 10 year cycle. Theory A is for a 10 year cycle with a new console introduced after 6 or so years while theory B suggest the new console will not arrive until 10 years.

While B is completely asinine in conception, theory B is plausible only if consumers demand it. Currently the PS3/PSP does not have the market command the PS and PS2 enjoyed therefore their life cycles will likely be shorter.

Why not make it a 15 or 20 year lifespan. Thats how long TV's used to last for back in the good old days.

I believe the PS4 to be launched  around the 6th aniversary of the PS3's life =  late 2012. Maintaining a pattern of consoles overlapping each other as has been done in the past. However, if a new XBox was launched late 2010 expect the new PS4 to arrive late 2011. A two year head start would be too much of a head start. The new consoles will be far superior than the ones currently available.

The worse part is that I think all consoles makers are starting to realize that short lasting generations are better similar to the IPod formula. I betcha anything that next gen they are going to go with a Nintendo plan of a console affordable and profitable for them and do several SKUs thru out a 3 to 5 year cycle just like PS and Xbox are doing to maximize profits.

I would think sony would want the ps3 to be gone as soon as possible because it is disaster for them.

I think it will only last 5 years max, and its support from sony will be next to nothing as they start to hype the ps4 and begin game development for it. So realy it only has 4 years and the first couple have been pretty slow for the ps3.