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Forums - Movies & TV - Suicide Squad: 750 - 800 Million needed to break even?

Soundwave on 06 August 2016
Lawlight said:
Soundwave said:

It'll probably make its money back, Will Smith is still a big star worldwide and that will help, but the script of the movie is so hilariously bad, the people shitting on Ghostbusters and pinning their hopes on this as being some shining example of summer movies played themselves. This script is probably worse overall and you can tell they completely chopped the film apart in the editing room. The Joker is pointless in the film as are 2-3 other main characters too.

Dude, when was the last time Will Smith had a big hit? I'd day Margot Robbie is a bigger star these days.

Not on a global stage, no way. People still know Will Smith in Europe and Asia, no one knows who the fuck Margot Robbie is outside being DiCaprio's wife in Wolf of Wall Street. 

MIB3 (which earned 71% of its box office internationally) and even 2015's Focus (66% internationally) indicate Smith still is a known commodity worldwide, the large international takes of box of those films allowed those films to turn a nice profit. 



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Soundwave on 06 August 2016
Lawlight said:
thismeintiel said:

Not sure why people don't get this, yet. Studios DO NOT see 100% of the box office revenue. They only see about 55% when all is said and done. The production budget also does not usually include the marketing budget. And for a film like this, with as hard as they have been pushing it, is easily $200M, if not more.

You see WB is desperate to get a DC cinematic universe off the ground that is just as successful as the Marvel one, so they are spending just as much as Disney is, if not more, to make and promote these films. Problem is they come off rushed and lack the same respect Marvel shows their characters. So, even though their movies are opening big, they have nowhere near the legs of the Marvel films. That's why Civil War made over $1.15B and is a big hit, but BvS couldn't hit $900M and is a disappointment. Personally, I see the same happening with SS, but we'll see.

They don't even get 55% - it's 50% from the US, 25% from China and 40% in the rest of the world.

It's more than 50% from the US, films are front loaded and studios take home the majority of the upfront profits, this isn't the 80s/90s anymore where movies play in a theater for 5-6 months earning steady box office in their later weeks.



Landguy on 06 August 2016
Slimebeast said:
It will make an enormous profit when all is said and done, in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Ticket sales, DVD sales, cable TV, streaming services, regular TV rights, toys and other merchandise.

I doubt it.  They are hoping for it to break even at best.

It will be lucky to break a gross of $250-260 domestic and $600 million WW.  That will leave it $50-100 million in the whole heading into those ancillary markets(which make only a fraction of what they used to).



It is near the end of the end....

Kerotan on 06 August 2016
Goodnightmoon said:
Kerotan said:

Have you seen the film?  Feedback has been very good from everyone I know who seen it.  

 

Obviously. Dunno about your friends but I didn't liked it, was very dumb, had too much presentations, too little of the Joker, the final part was a mess, the villain is meh and the narration is kind of confusing for such a simple story. Is not horribly boring or anything like that but is pretty weak, it could have been handled way better.

Hopefully I'll enjoy it more.  Haven't watched many films at all this year so my movie standards aren't high or anything.  



Lawlight on 06 August 2016
Soundwave said:
Lawlight said:

Dude, when was the last time Will Smith had a big hit? I'd day Margot Robbie is a bigger star these days.

Not on a global stage, no way. People still know Will Smith in Europe and Asia, no one knows who the fuck Margot Robbie is outside being DiCaprio's wife in Wolf of Wall Street. 

MIB3 (which earned 71% of its box office internationally) and even 2015's Focus (66% internationally) indicate Smith still is a known commodity worldwide, the large international takes of box of those films allowed those films to turn a nice profit. 

They know him - doesn't mean they'll go watch his movie. Tarzan to me shows that people are interested in going to watch Margot Robbie's movies.

MIB3 is a big franchise movie. The days of people going in masses to see a movie for an actor is gone.



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Lawlight on 06 August 2016
Soundwave said:
Lawlight said:

They don't even get 55% - it's 50% from the US, 25% from China and 40% in the rest of the world.

It's more than 50% from the US, films are front loaded and studios take home the majority of the upfront profits, this isn't the 80s/90s anymore where movies play in a theater for 5-6 months earning steady box office in their later weeks.

It's 50%. Got that from the financials from The Amazing Spider-Man 2.



fielding88 on 06 August 2016

It's nice that some people are coming in here trying to defend the box office takes of these movies, but there is a thing called Hollywood accounting that you should probably look into. It benefits the studio in many ways to declare that a movie isn't profitable. But "profitable" isn't what you think it means.

For more on Hollywood accounting, check out this article: https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20121018/01054720744/hollywood-accounting-how-19-million-movie-makes-150-million-still-isnt-profitable.shtml

Also, Return of the Jedi still hasn't turned a profit: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/



 I have a gaming channel! Come watch me be bad at games :)


thismeintiel on 06 August 2016
Lawlight said:
thismeintiel said:

Not sure why people don't get this, yet. Studios DO NOT see 100% of the box office revenue. They only see about 55% when all is said and done. The production budget also does not usually include the marketing budget. And for a film like this, with as hard as they have been pushing it, is easily $200M, if not more.

You see WB is desperate to get a DC cinematic universe off the ground that is just as successful as the Marvel one, so they are spending just as much as Disney is, if not more, to make and promote these films. Problem is they come off rushed and lack the same respect Marvel shows their characters. So, even though their movies are opening big, they have nowhere near the legs of the Marvel films. That's why Civil War made over $1.15B and is a big hit, but BvS couldn't hit $900M and is a disappointment. Personally, I see the same happening with SS, but we'll see.

They don't even get 55% - it's 50% from the US, 25% from China and 40% in the rest of the world.

It's different for every movie.  But, on average, a movie will start out with 60% going to studios and 40% for theatres for the first week or 2.  Then, as the weeks go by the studio portion drops to 50%.  Then, to 40%.  Possibly lower after a month or more.  Still, on average a studio will make 50%-55% of the total box office.  I always use 55% in my calculations to give the studios as much of the benefit of doubt as possible.  And yes, that is for the US.  However, in many countries it's very similar, though I'm sure there are some countries that demand more.

So, basically, the lower end is probably more accurate.  This movie needs to make $750M to break even.  Like I said, I think all the hype for this movie will deliver it a huge opening weekend.  But, next week, we are going to see either the standard 50%-60% drop, which is normal for a superhero flick, or something more along the lines of a dismal 65%-70% drop, like we saw with BvS.



 

Lawlight on 06 August 2016
thismeintiel said:
Lawlight said:

They don't even get 55% - it's 50% from the US, 25% from China and 40% in the rest of the world.

It's different for every movie.  But, on average, a movie will start out with 60% going to studios and 40% for theatres for the first week or 2.  Then, as the weeks go by the studio portion drops to 50%.  Then, to 40%.  Possibly lower after a month or more.  Still, on average a studio will make 50%-55% of the total box office.  I always use 55% in my calculations to give the studios as much of the benefit of doubt as possible.  And yes, that is for the US.  However, in many countries it's very similar, though I'm sure there are some countries that demand more.

So, basically, the lower end is probably more accurate.  This movie needs to make $750M to break even.  Like I said, I think all the hype for this movie will deliver it a huge opening weekend.  But, next week, we are going to see either the standard 50%-60% drop, which is normal for a superhero flick, or something more along the lines of a dismal 65%-70% drop, like we saw with BvS.

So, you're talking about the US only? The studio will not get more than 40% outside of the US.



thismeintiel on 06 August 2016
fielding88 said:
It's nice that some people are coming in here trying to defend the box office takes of these movies, but there is a thing called Hollywood accounting that you should probably look into. It benefits the studio in many ways to declare that a movie isn't profitable. But "profitable" isn't what you think it means.

For more on Hollywood accounting, check out this article: https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20121018/01054720744/hollywood-accounting-how-19-million-movie-makes-150-million-still-isnt-profitable.shtml

Also, Return of the Jedi still hasn't turned a profit: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/09/how-hollywood-accounting-can-make-a-450-million-movie-unprofitable/245134/

Except that article isn't talking about what we are talking about.  We're talking about production budget plus marketing budget, which that also says are legit numbers.  What that article speaks of is bogus fees added onto those budgets to ensure that if a movie actually does make a lot of money over its production and marketing budget, they don't have to pay anyone their x% of the movie's profit that's stated in their contract.  Really that practice should be illegal if it isn't already.