By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii sales for the future..

The point of the picture isn't to imply that Leo was saying that the Wii will not outsell the 360 at any point - obviously, this has already happened.

The point of the picture was to illustrate leo's thoughts in that, just like people who were stubbornly expecting Wii sales to flatline just before it actually accomplished anything, he's predicting a massive and inexplicable drop in Wii sales.

The point of the picture is not to show something about what leo thinks the Wii will do relative to the 360 and PS3, but to skewer his notion of what the Wii will do itself. The graph of fantastic sales which suddenly drop off to next to nothing just looks absurd.

I can see how this would be confusing if nobody had seen this picture before, but we've all seen it in other threads. Therefore, not every element of the picture can be assumed to have relevance to this topic.

And leo, you've offered 'reasons', but only profoundly silly ones. To most readers, they serve only to thinly veil nothing more than, as you put it, "Sony fanboy sayz wiiz da losez".

One could likewise claim that people who think the PS3 will hit 14m this year are just crazy. It's obvious that demand will be fully satisfied around 11.5m as everyone realizes that other consoles are better and then its sales will closely track the Dreamcast's.

That's not really a more absurd chain of thought than your reasoning for the Wii's drop in demand. You know that systems in the past have sold more than 40m consoles worldwide (in case you didn't, look up the PS1 and PS2 - both sold much, much more than that) and have sold much faster than the 360 is for much longer than the Wii has. You also know that the speed at which the Wii is selling is record-breaking. You have to show why the Wii is so different from previous systems that demand for it can be satisfied so quickly, and why this will result in its sales dropping much farther than the sales of historical popular systems which stopped selling out. Otherwise, yes, this is little more than "Sony fanboy sayz wiiz da losez".

Edit: Starcraft, while you can just call every disagreement a difference of opinion, this isn't very satisfying.  Yes, it would be silly to attack someone for saying that chocolate is better than vanilla.  It's understood that there's an implicit 'to me' in there and that 'better' is not meant in an intersubjective or objective sense.  At the other end of the spectrum, it makes perfect sense to make fun of someone who thinks that the earth is flat.  Our concepts of earth and flatness require that everyone perceives them in roughly the same way.

The difference is that true differences of opinion are supported by different premises.  To me, chocolate is better than vanilla because, for me, it's true that it tastes better.  However, we believe in a certain amount of objective truth about other claims, such as 'the earth is flat'.  For that, the believer isn't actually working from different premises - he has the same perceptions that everyone else does.  We attack him because he's not reasoning correctly from the premises available to him.

This is similar.  We have the same information that leo-j has, and he's reasoning from that information in a very silly way.



Around the Network

I smell incomplete logic...

http://malstrom.50webs.com/drowningintheblueocean2.htm
http://malstrom.50webs.com/foolsparadise.htm
http://malstrom.50webs.com/risingcontinent.htm
http://malstrom.50webs.com/washinghardcore.htm
http://malstrom.50webs.com/newworld.htm
http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html

If you're going to be predicting the future, you'd best read up on the process instead of trying to analyze the results. And don't give the excuse "it's too long a read". If you cannot invest time into learning the process, then you will not be able to effectively analyze. Results are not everything; process determines results, therefore process is everything.



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp

i love it

all the ps3-fans predict low sales for wii and say "note: i am not a fortune teller like you guys predicting high wii sales"...even tho the DATA shows that we are more likely correct than these guys low-ball predictions



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp

@ GotchayeA...welcome to VGChartz. Get yourself an avatar and I'll send you your first friend request. Excellent post.



Around the Network

leo, come on give in.. you can only be right if the Wii only sells 10 million in the next 9 months... I think the Wii will sell 7 million in the 10 weeks of the holiday season... so unless only 3 million Wii are sold from now until mid october you are going to be quite wrong.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Fastrabbit09 said:
i love it

all the ps3-fans predict low sales for wii and say "note: i am not a fortune teller like you guys predicting high wii sales"...even tho the DATA shows that we are more likely correct than these guys low-ball predictions


 I think it's best to leave other pro-Sony posters out of this thread until they have contributed.  This is simply one Sony fan stating his opinion.



leo-j said:
Every casual wants a wii? What makes you think they wont buy a ps2 instead?


there are billions of non-gamers out there...that don't own any consoles and haven't owned any for at least the last 10 years some 10s of millions of those non-gamers will buy a wii and they won't even consider a ps2...gamepads are a barrier to entry for these people and the wiimote removes that barrier


Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp
FishyJoe said:

 hm......i think your key is totally wrong!!

red line: Wii

green line: Ps3

blue line: Xbox360



Wii console: 0595 8808 5698 2709
Super Smash Bros Brawl: 1161 1357 5188

Mario Kart Wii: 1633 4506 4319

PES 2008: 1633 5820 0347

DragonBall Z BT 3: 3823 9760 9484

Pokemon Battle Revolution: 3480 2645 9186
Feel free to add me, and sent me a pm with your Friend Code!!

 

There really is no reason to assume that demand is suddenly going to stop. Due to supply constraints largely in the US, it's hard to tell where US demand even tops out right now. Saying "the wii bubble will burst starting in...." is the same tired argument that's been going on since the console launched. The end of the wii fad is perpetually six months away.



You can find me on facebook as Markus Van Rijn, if you friend me just mention you're from VGchartz and who you are here.