I'm not saying reasons for the decline are the same. They don't have to be. 

Don't forget - CoD4 Remastered sets you back extra money. Also - The fact that you think IW looks good doesn't mean it looks just as good to everyone else. Let's be real here: IW's reveal nearly competes with Metroid Prime Federation Force in how widely it was reviled. Advanced Warfare and BO3 never suffered such negative reception.

CoD has stronger competition this year than last in the FPS market. It's simply not matter if CoD will be down YoY, but how much. 

The last-gen versions of Black Ops 3 were pretty atrocious and still made a decent chunk of BO3's sales. About 3-4 million of them.

It may be obvious to you that, the current-gen versions were better. But to the casual crowd naive enough to get BO3 on last gen, there's probably a large number of people who are done with series given the kind of shitpile they got for the money. 

The negative IW reveal doesn't paint a compelling narrative for those people to upgrade console for the next CoD.

Hadn't even taken that into consideration...

Not so sure it'll happen, but I certainly hope it does.

I doubt it will happen and those are the same reasons given every year for why COD will die out but those reasons never apply. New battlefield, No new ideas, casuals will move on etc. CoD has been a massive seller since 2007, I dont see how its fanbase who bought a bundle are "casuals who will move on"? they haven't moved on in 9 years, what makes you think this year they will move on? COD has proven it isn't some shot lived fad, Pokemon Go, on the other hand, has yet to do that.


I personally think Pokemon Go will decrease dramatically by November.

Pokemon Go is a fad and Nintendo knew it was going to be a fad by the timing of the release. It was always going to be used as a hook to get people to buy the proper Pokemon games. I suspect it will, but not by enough to vault it passed COD. COD is the most casual gaming experience the console industry has right now and nothing will toppl it.

It's a shame too because Sun and Moon are going to be so superior to Go that it isn't even funny.

The current gen BO3 sales were over 20 million, so those 3-4 million sales wouldn't make much of an impact.  There's also no way Sun/Moon will end up selling over 20 million.  Also, last-gen versions of BO3 weren't nearly as bad as Unity was.  They were pretty much the same game with downgraded graphics and no campaign and most of the casuals don't even care about the single player in CoD.  Also from what it seems, all the hate on Infinite Warfare is just people jumping on the hate train.  Once the game actually comes out the casuals will stop caring and buy it.  I'm convinced that Infinite Warfare won't sell as well as BO3, mostly due to all the competition this holiday season with Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2, but it won't sell worse than Sun/Moon between both platforms.

I'm not saying it dies out entirely. Hardly that. At the numbers I've predicted it's still comfortably the #2 best selling game of the holiday, #3 at the worst.

CoD has been massively bundled for the last several years for both X1 and PS4, and yet a large number of people kept buying and playing CoD, including legacy titles, on last gen. If they didn't upgrade in the last year, they're perhaps even less likely to upgrade consoles now. And if they did, they'd probably do so for an entirely different game than CoD.

Rather than have me explain why IW will be down YoY, why don't you explain to me why it will maintain and grow the very same audience this year?

MBP... is that you?

But I'm not saying Sun/Moon hits 20 million+. I say it hits 17 million.

And I figure IW to sell nearly 15 million. That's not too shabby. CoD has always had it's haters - but has it ever been this sour? BO3 and Advanced Warfare had much better general reception. Keep in mind, there's a sizable number who've sworn off buying another CoD every year - but every year they disappoint themselves and get it. At certain point, they too will give up on the franchise.